US CPI popped up by 0.4% in April with the core rate up 0.2%, in line with expectations. There were no revisions to prior data where March posted gains of 0.1% for both the headline and the ex-food and energy component. The annual headline pace rose to 1.1% from 0.9% y/y in March, with the core slowing slightly to 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y; it’s a 6th straight month with a 2 handle. Energy prices were up 3.4% after the 0.9% March gain broke a string of 3 straight monthly declines. Transportation jumped 1.6%. Housing costs were up 0.2%. Food/beverage costs edged up 0.2%. Medical care was 0.3% higher. Commodities rose 0.6%. Apparel slid 0.3%.

EURUSD reacted slightly lower as improved inflation data supports the view that the Fed will hike the rates this year. Our view is that there will two rate hikes in the latter half of the year. I’m expecting the first hike will be announced in the June meeting even though the date is near the British EU referendum. The nearest EURUSD support and 4h resistance levels are at 1.1282 and 1.1340.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, H1    

Eurozone Q1 GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% q/q from 0.6% q/q reported initially. Still a solid acceleration from the 0.3% q/q in Q4 last year, but it seems stronger than expected German growth failed to compensate for the modest acceleration in Italy, the weaker than expected number in Portugal and the ongoing contraction in Greece. In any case, while the earlier timing of Easter may have helped Q1 growth along, indicators already point to a slowdown ahead and the balance of risks going ahead remains firmly tilted to the downside. For now the ECB is on hold and focused on implementing the measures already announced, but at the same time officials are keeping the door to further easing wide open.

Although a revision downwards it was a relatively good figure, with only Greece and Latvia not growing, EURUSD ticked up to the 1.1350 area, but down from yesterdays 1.1400 this morning.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, 240    

U.S. initial jobless claims surged 17k to 274k in the week ended April 30, the highest level in five weeks. The 17k U.S. initial claims pop to 274k in the final week of April extended the 9k rise to 257k from a 42-year low of 248k in the April BLS survey week, as claims nearly return to the 276k recent peak in the week of Good Friday. Despite the sharp rise, the extremely tight mid-month readings signal upside risk for our 210k April payroll estimate.  The claims roller-coaster ride since late-March, with high readings then and now with a deep trough in between, is likely due at least partly to the difficulties of seasonal adjustment with this year’s early Easter. Note that non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) claims fell 2k alongside the 17k seasonally adjusted (SA) rise. Claims averaged a lean 259k in April despite the late-month climb, versus higher recent averages of a still-lean 265k in March, 261k in February, 282k in January and 277k in December. The 248k April BLS survey week reading undershot recent already-tight BLS readings of 259k in March, 260k in February, 291k in January and 275k in both November and December.

EURUSD remains rather unmoved by the data,  with support around the 1.1400 level and resistance at 1.1470-1.1480. All eyes now on tomorrows Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, 60 min

EURUSD created a bearish shooting star candle in yesterday’s trading. The day was rather volatile with the pair running up by X% and then closing below the opening price and near the session lows. Today we’ve seen some sideways action which is typical after market moves significantly on the day before. EURUSD has also found support from the proximity of April 4^th high at 1.1465. Today’s low at the time of writing has been 1.1469. Market participants are also waiting for the US employment numbers for April from ADP which are due to be released at 12:15 GMT. No major change is expected to March numbers.

In the hourly chart the EURUSD pair can be seen in a descending channel but as mentioned, the 1.1465 support is not that far and has attracted buyers while it has also kept the bears in check. I expect that traders will tread carefully until the ADP number is out even though no major change is expected. I’m seeing resistance at 1.1500 and 1.1511 with the nearest support at 1.1465. The 4h chart has now a doji candle which suggests the downside momentum has faded and the pair could try to retrace some of yesterday’s losses. However, the 1.1532 to 1.1570 should be a challenge for the bulls and this Sell Area has potential to turn the pair down again. We will follow the price action to see if market supplies us with sell signals. Should this happen my target one is at 1.1480 and target two at 1.1410.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, Daily

US Markit manufacturing PMI (final) held steady at 50.8 in April compared to the flash reading (lowest since September 2009), but down from the 51.5 final March print. The final PMI output index also held steady at 50.3 in April vs the flash reading, but down from final March 51.2. The final April employment index settled unchanged vs the flash of 50.2, though down from the 52.2 final March print. Overall, not very compelling, though focus will shift to ISM and construction data shortly.

At the same time US manufacturing ISM fell to 50.8 in April from 51.8 in March. The prices index surged to 59.0 in April from 51.5 in March. New orders eroded to 55.8 in April from 58.3 in March. While the pull-back in the total index was slightly more pronounced than anticipated (median was 51.3), the result was largely as-expected.

US construction spending rose 0.3% in March versus consensus forecasts of a 0.5% gain. February data however, was revised sharply higher to up 1.0% to from -0.5%. The small March miss can be attributed to slower housing starts reported for March.

EURUSD reacted higher at first but has since retraced some of its gains. The nearest 4h support and resistance levels are at 1.1481 and 1.1534 with the next support at 1.1465 (coincides with 0.236 retracement) and 1.1398. EURUSD reaction after the data could lead to market testing the nearest supports before finding direction again. This price action is taking place outside the upper daily Bollinger bands which could mean going gets tougher for the bulls. At the same time however, there is support in the weekly charts around 1.1460 (weekly highs) and could mean that Euro bears are careful with their short positioning and leave more room for the bulls to bid prices higher.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, Daily

US March personal income rose 0.4% while spending increased 0.1%. The 0.1% increase in February income was revised to up 0.2%, while the 0.1% spending rise in January was upped to 0.2%. Income has been up for 12 straight month, and spending has increased 14 consecutive months. The headline chain price index rose 0.1% versus the 0.1% decline in February, and is up 0.8% y/y. The core rate increased 0.1% versus 0.2% previously. Disposable income rose 0.4% versus up 0.1% in February, while the savings rate increased to 5.4% vs 5.1% previously.

EURUSD has been trading higher and is nearing the April highs at 1.1465. This area coincides with the upper Bollinger bands while the up move has lifted the Stochastics almost to overbought territory. Since November 2015 this area has been too much for the Euro bulls and moves into this area have been unsustainable. It remains to be seen what the market reactions will be on this time. Only then we can tell if it’s likely that the markets will take to EURUSD down again. The nearest daily resistance levels are at 1.1465 and 1.1495 while the nearest daily support levels are at 1.1218 and 1.1143.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, 240 min

German March import price inflation higher than expected, with the annual rate falling to -5.9% from -5.7% y/y in February, against a Bloomberg median of -6.2% y/y. Excluding energy prices, however, the picture is somewhat different, as the annual rate dropped sharply to -3.6% y/y from -2.8% y/y in February and compared to 2.2% y/y in July last year. The data show ongoing dis-inflation pressures from import prices, stemming not only from oil prices and subsequently strengthen Draghi’s push for additional easing last month.

There was no notable market reaction in EURUSD to the release. The pair is ranging between 0.38 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels after yesterday’s move to 1.1278 was rejected and price bounced higher from 30 period MA. Nearest significant support and resistance levels are at 1.1253 and 1.1340. Markets are likely to be in a wait and see mode until the FOMC rate decision. No change is expected and as there is no press conference the actual words in the Monetary Policy Statement released at 18:30 GMT will be scrutinized very closely.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, 1hr   

The U.S. durable goods report undershot assumptions due primarily to a weak round of equipment figures, alongside a small March durable orders rebound despite a defense orders surge with a slight drop ex-transportation, alongside the expected small shipments decline with a restrained inventory figure. We lowered our Q1 GDP growth forecast to a flat figure from 0.3% with a 6% (was 4%) contraction rate for real equipment spending, alongside an $11 (was $5) bln inventory subtraction. We expect a still-lofty $67 bln Q1 inventory accumulation rate that will weigh on Q2, where we now expect 2.0% (was 2.2%) GDP growth with a 4% (was 6%) bounce in equipment spending and a $20 bln inventory subtraction. We expect a flat March factory inventory figure with a 0.1% total business inventory rise, given today’s flat factory durable inventory figure. We assume a 0.1% March factory orders rise with a 0.5% factory shipments decline, given an assumed 0.5% nondurable shipments and orders drop.

EURUSD rallied higher from 1.12870 to 1.1334 and GBPUSD rallied from 1.4560 to an 11 week high at 1.4622.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, 1 hr   

German April  IFO reading fell to 106.6 from 106.7, slightly weaker than our below consensus forecast for a rise to 106.8, but with the breakdown revealing that the overall number was held back by a sharp decline in the current conditions indicator. The future expectations reading meanwhile improved for a second consecutive month to 100.4 from 100 in March. So the weaker than expected number serves as a confirmation that overall economic growth is slowing down in the second quarter, but still signals a stabilisation and slight improvement ahead. The diffusion index showed improvements in manufacturing and construction sentiment, while readings for wholesale and retail trade dipped, after improving in March. The variation may also reflect the early timing of Easter this year, however, so it remains to be seen whether sentiment in these sectors stabilises again in May.

EURUSD rather unmoved on the news and trading a little higher at 1.1256 on up from overnight lows of 1.1225.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

German ZEW investor confidence better than expected, with the headline reading rising to 11.2 from 4.3 in the previous month and versus our median of 8.0. The current conditions indicator meanwhile came in weaker than expected at just 47.7, down from 50.7 in March. This confirms that the overall improvement mainly reflects a stabilisation in market confidence and receding risk aversion, while actual conditions in the German economy are pointing to a loss of momentum in the second quarter and going ahead, as the Bundesbank also highlighted yesterday.

The centre also said that growth prospects in China and worries over Brexit were both a “drag” on the German economy. The EURUSD maintained its momentum from Thursdays lows and is currently trading at 1.1338, finding resistance at the  50 DMA.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.