Free Forex Signals for 09.10.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD moved further into the pivotal support yesterday as I expected. The 4h lower Bollinger Bands where able to support price and sent the pair rallying higher. There were good sized rallies in all the euro pairs which suggest that institutional money was flowing into EUR, but there seems to be no news event that could explain the rally. Euro pairs run into resistance levels and have been reacting lower over the last few hours. In EURUSD this is reflected in the pair once again trading lower from 1.1214 area. Even though there is a slight upward bias I expect low volatility to remain as the pair is bound by nearby support and resistance levels. The downside is limited by 1.1018 – 1.1093 and the upside by 1.1208 – 1.1332 candle. S&R levels beyond these are 1.1018 and 1.1334. Intraday price finding support at an area near 4h 50 period SMA. This same level used resist moves higher over the last few days.

A big NZD dive was the main action in pre-Europe trade in Asia after the RBNZ cut its growth outlook for the New Zealand economy and called for more currency weakness. This followed its expected decision to cut the official cash rate to 2.75% from 3.0%. NZDUSD dove just over 2% in making a three-day low at 0.6256. AUDNZD rallied strongly, with the RBNZ’s guidance contrasting a strong employment report out of Australia, which saw employment rise by 17.4k, above the 5.0k median forecast.

The data saw AUDUSD rebound to the 0.7020 area from a low at 0.6946. Elsewhere, USDJPY rebounded smartly from a test of 120.00, which was seen as Japanese stock markets corrected some of yesterday’s outsized gains. Yen losses were sparked by remarks from Japanese politician Yamamoto, who called the BoJ to expand QQE at its upcoming Oct 30 meeting. His remarks came as Japanese data showed PPI remaining in deep deflationary territory, and machine orders showing another contractionary quarter in capital expenditure. USDJPY spiked to a peak of 121.35 before settling to the 120.65-70 area. EURUSD, meanwhile, re-established itself above 1.1200.

UK house prices are surging, with the August RICS house price balance rising to a 15-month high of 53 from 44 in the previous month, while the August Halifax price index jumped by a large 2.9% m/m to bring the y/y measure up to +9.0% from July’s 7.9% rate. RICS doubled its forecast for price rises to 6% from 3%, reporting that properties for sale are at a three-year low. The demand-supply imbalance, coupled with robust economic momentum and record employment records, along with historically low mortgage rates and a government scheme to subsidize house purchases, are underpinning the market.

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady as Economy Underpinned The BoC left the 0.50% policy rate unchanged, as economic growth and inflation have been consistent with their outlook. Most tellingly, the dynamics of Canada’s GDP growth projected in July remain intact, with economic activity underpinned by household spending and a firm recovery in exports. But downside risks remain, notably in the form of uncertainty related to China and emerging markets. The Bank has moved back to the sidelines, and we expect the current ultra-accommodative rate setting to remain in place through 2016.

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Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates for the third time in three months. The current rate is 2.75%, down 0.25% from the previous 3% rate. This sent NZD down by as much as 2.0% against AUD at the time of writing. According to the RBNZ the economy is adjusting to the sharp decline in export prices, and the consequent fall in the exchange rate. The bank also commented on global environment: Global economic growth remains moderate, but the outlook has been revised down due mainly to weaker activity in the developing economies. Concerns about softer growth, particularly in China and East Asia, have led to elevated volatility in financial markets and renewed falls in commodity prices. The US economy continues to expand. Financial markets remain uncertain as to the timing and impact of an expected tightening in US monetary policy.

AUDNZD has rallied strongly and the pair is approaching the upper Bollinger Bands and a pivotal resistance in the daily time frame. EURNZD rallied to a similar resistance in a 4h chart and has turned lower. GBPNZD chart is almost an identical copy of EURNZD while NZDUSD trades near support.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• China’s CPI improved to a 2.0% y/y pace in August from the 1.6% y/y pace in July and 1.4% clip in June. The pick-up to the fastest CPI growth rate in a year during August would appear modestly encouraging given the government’s efforts to boost growth (which should presumably eventually lift prices). But a lack of supply for pork drove prices of that key meat product higher, lifting total CPI and undercutting a demand driven explanation for the CPI jump in August. Meanwhile, August PPI remained weak at a -5.9% y/y clip after the -5.5% y/y rate in July. That’s the worst pace of annual decline in six year, reflecting the plunging fortunes of China’s factor sector.
• Bank of England meeting: BoE MPC’s September meeting, which is now replete with the instant release of the minutes, will be the main event for sterling markets this week. With the August PMI surveys signalling the weakest growth for over two years, and signs that retail sales are slowing, along with concerns about global market volatility, we expect the minutes to reveal a more dovish tone than was the case at the early August meeting. The MPC should leave the repo rate at 0.5% — where its been since March 2009, and where its likely to remain until Q2 next year — and the QE total at GBP 375 bln. The vote is likely to be 8-1 in favour of holding the repo rate unchanged, with last month’s sole dissenter McCafferty, likely to persist with his vote for a 25 bp hike.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Initial claims data for the week of September 5th are out on Thursday and should show a drop back to 267k (median 275k) after a bounce to 282k in the week of August 29th. Despite the slightly lower August payroll headline of 173k, claims have continued along a tight path. We expect September claims to have 275k, matching the August average but exceeding July 272k average.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.09.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The 1.1214 resistance worked again yesterday and turned EURUSD down after the pair rallied from the support area identified in yesterday’s report. The pair keeps on moving sideways between a pivotal support at 1.1085 – 1.1150 and resistance at 1.1214. The pair also seems to honour 50 period SMA in the 4h timeframe as the slightly descending moving average has been limiting EURUSD advances lately. Today’s candle has potential to be a decisive one as it will create another lower high should it close down. There are two lower lows already and should today’s bar close below previous candle low another lower high will be created. Price has created lower highs in intraday charts, which suggests that the pair should move further into the aforementioned pivotal support. Apart from this pivotal support area support and resistance levels are at 1.0930, 1.1018 and 1.1214.

ECB’s Reinesch: Loose Monetary Policy support structural reforms. The governor of Luxembourg’s central bank said the “current accommodative monetary policy” provides a “window of opportunity” for structural reform. He stressed that “favourable financing conditions will offset possible short-term adjustment costs and will bring forward the longer-term benefits of reform”. According to Reinesch these “could focus on simplifying the administrative burden involved in creating a new firm or in growing a firm beyond arbitrary thresholds which trigger increases in compliance costs.” The ECB has been urging enhanced structural reforms for a while now, but in our view the risk is that without market pressure, governments will continue to shy away from any measures that could risk votes.

According to Eurostat the Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.4% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the second quarter of 2015, compared with the previous quarter, according to a second estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2015, GDP grew by 0.5% in both areas. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.5% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU28 in the second quarter of 2015, after +1.2% and +1.7% respectively in the previous quarter. During the second quarter of 2015, GDP in the United States increased by 0.9% compared with the previous quarter (after +0.2% in the first quarter of 2015). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 2.7% (after +2.9% in the previous quarter).

The US consumer credit expanded 6.7% in July. It is a sign of confidence most likely propelled by low fuel prices and relatively steady job market. Outstanding consumer credit, a reflection of nonmortgage debt, rose $19.1 billion or at a 6.7% annual rate in July, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. Consumer credit has been trending higher. It has increased each month for nearly four years. July credit growth was roughly in line with economists’ expectations. They had predicted a $19.5 billion increase. Revolving credit, mostly credit cards, rose at a 5.7% annual rate. In June it climbed at an annual rate of 10%. Non-revolving credit, made up largely of auto and student loans, increased at a 7% annual rate, compared with 9.4% in June. Almost 70% of US GDP growth comes from consumer spending and steady growth in consumer credit therefore is a positive indication for the economic growth.

The US Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) rose by 2.1 points in August. This was the largest monthly improvement in US labor markets over the last six months. There were also revisions for previous months’ readings 2015 were revised up by a net 2.3 points in yesterday’s release.  This measure contracted by 370 points from January 2008 to June 2009 but now it has made up about 90% of the 2008-09 deterioration.

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All currencies continue their rally against JPY today. JPY is typically seen as a safe haven currency and stock market gains across the globe signal that investors and other market players are once again ready accept risk. All the other currencies seem to be on a wait and see mode as fluctuations are relatively small when compared to JPY.

USDJPY has broken out of a 4h downtrend and is now trading near Aug 28^th pivotal resistance. The low at 120.90 has tested bull commitment in USDJPY today. AUDJPY has rallied to a level that turned the pair lower Sept 3^rd and has caused the market to hesitate: bearish pinbars in 4h chart. EURJPY hit the upper end of my resistance area at 135 and turned lower. Looking bearish now with some room to fall.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• Canada Housing Starts: We expect starts to improve to a 195.0k unit rate in August from the 193.0k pace in July. The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. We expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity. Building permits will also be released and are expected to show a 5.0% drop in July after the 14.8% surge in June. A pull-back in multi-units is seen driving the pull-back in total permit values.
• Bank of Canada Rate decision: The August jobs report capped the recent run of data consistent with an economy at mid-year that is not in need of further policy stimulus. We’ve seen encouraging reports in the form of a 0.5% bounce in June GDP, back to back June and July export gains and jobs growth in both July and August. Granted, considerable downside risks remain, notably via a weaker China and volatile oil prices. But an improving U.S. economy underpins the outlook for ongoing growth in exports — about 75% of Canada’s exports are shipped to the U.S. And the plunge in Q2 investment suggests the worst of the oil patch investment cuts are behind us. While no further stimulus is currently necessary, the Bank of Canada will maintain a very dovish tone in Wednesday’s announcement as they retain scope to take further action if the economic data take a dive.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.08.2015

EURUSD, Daily

In Friday’s report we identified 1.1093 – 1.1154 as a likely range to contain EURUSD action after the NFP report. Apart from a spike to the upside trading was maintained well within the range. The low for the day was 1.1090 while the high printed at 1.1189 and the close inside the range at 1.1149. As a result the last week’s candle turned into a narrow range bar that signals hesitation. In relation to daily Bollinger Bands (20) price is firmly in the mid-range and it is therefore challenging to estimate the future moves. Today’s euro zone GDP release is out at 09:00 GMT. The number is expected to be a confirmation of the preliminary release. EURUSD is finding some support from 1.1154 – 1.1170 range but the bias is on the downside. Next important support levels are at 1.0930 and 1.1018.

ECB’s Noyer says markets are well prepared for Fed hike. The Bank of France Governor said the “Fed’s communication has been done well and in detail, adding that an increase in the federal funds rate is inevitable and the markets are well prepared. It is not the timing that matters. Draghi’s dovish comments last week were clearly also designed to remind markets that Europe is in a different situation and that a hike in the U.S. won’t mean tighter policies in Europe, which should also help to limit upward pressure on the EUR if rate hike expectations in the U.S. are being pushed out.

ECB’s Weidmann: Direct impact of China equity slump limited. The Bundesbank President said at the sidelines of the G20 meeting that the direct impact of the stock correction in China and that the Bundesbank sees no reason to change its growth forecast for Germany. Still, he stressed heightened uncertainty about the outlook and said risks have shifted, while at the same time repeating once again that monetary policy cannot solve all problems. This seems to be the general tenor of ECB comments at the moments, with officials trying to dampen market reliance on central bank intervention to fix the economic outlook, although words alone won’t change that.

Copper and other metals are up after Glencore announced output cuts at two of its copper mines, which will cut supply by about 400 thousand tonnes. Copper prices are now up by 1.7% on the day. Oversupply has been a big issue in the copper market, similar to iron ore, crude and many other raw materials. Glencore’s decision comes after data last week showed Chinese manufacturing PMI dove to a three-year low in August. China is the world’s biggest consumer of copper, and many other commodities. Copper prices hit cycle lows on Aug-24, during the recent height of the recent Chinese stock market panic, but have since rebounded by 5.5%.

German labour growth accelerates sharply. Latest data show total labour costs up 0.9% q/q in Q2, bringing the annual growth rate to a whopping 3.1% y/y, from 2.8% y/y in the previous quarter and versus just 0.7% at the start of 2014. Gross wages and salaries rose 3.4% y/y in Q2. The tight labour market is boosting wage demands and settlements and with inflation at very low levels, real disposable income is picking up and supporting private consumption, but also marked increases in property prices, especially in the urban hot spots. Amid sluggish productivity growth, the increases also look unsustainable and will undermine competitiveness and are likely to push up unemployment in the medium term, with the decline in jobless numbers already starting to peter out.

 

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Ugly trade data from China gave further confirmation for the slowdown in its economy. The 13.8% drop in imports was even worse than 8.2% drop expected by the economists. As China is an important trade partner for Japan this hit the Japanese stock market hard and sent JPY sharply lower against the majors. The biggest losses in have been at the time of writing against the GBP and AUD.

GBPJPY was trading at the lower weekly Bollinger Bands (20) and near to a support. The pair has rallied strongly and is currently challenging 50 week SMA at 184.27. AUDJPY is also deeply oversold in the weekly picture. The current up move is taking place from a support area that was formed in August 2012. EURJPY also moved higher from weekly Bollinger Bands (20) and is currently trading near a resistance area at 134.50 – 135.00.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

 

Main Macro Events Today

• Chinese import export data disappointed. Imports slumped by almost 14% year on year while YoY exports declined by 5.5%.
• German trade surplus widened as exports rebound. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 22.8 bln in July, up from EUR 22.1 bln in the previous month, as exports rose 2.4% m/m, more than compensating for the 1.1% m/m decline in June. Imports rose 2.2% m/m, after falling 0.8% m/m in the previous month. Unadjusted data showed a surplus of EUR 25.0 bln in July, which brought the total for the year to date to 148.7, up from 122.1 in the first seven months of 2014. Exports were up 6.8% y/y over this period. Despite the scare stories, no sign then that German trade has been impacted significantly by slowing growth in China, at least so far, and Germany is heading for a new record trade surplus, although with import prices down on the year, this is of course partly also due to low oil prices.
• Eurozone final Q2 GDP: Eurozone Q2 GDP growth is expected to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y, in line with preliminary numbers, which will leave the focus on the breakdown. We expect net exports and private consumption to have been the main drivers of growth. Investment remains the Eurozone key weakness, despite the very accommodative monetary policy. There are signs that loan growth is stabilising, but even in Germany, where financing conditions are not really a problem, investment has remained modest with structural factors, rather than financing conditions the main impediment for stronger investment.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.04.2015

EURUSD, Daily

Draghi’s suggestion that ECB could extend the QE program dropped EURUSD below the rising trendline and the 1.1154 support. Price found support from a pivotal high at 1.1093 which coincides with 50 day SMA. Indications as a whole are mixed as the nearest support is relatively near at a daily pivot candle (1.1018 – 1.1093). This range sent the market strongly higher on August 19^th which suggests that the level now holds some psychological value for the euro bulls but at the same time the sideways move and a new pivotal low at 1.1154 are very near. It has already proven to be a challenge for those with long bias today. The US Non-Farm Payroll figures are released today at 12:30 GMT. In case we see strong deviation from analyst expectations price is likely to fluctuate beyond the nearest resistance levels (1.1018 and 1.1154). Today’s NFP number is the last one before the next FOMC meeting and is seen as an important indicator for the Fed when it considers the timing of  their first rate hike. Other support and resistance levels: 1.0932 and 1.1334.

German July manufacturing orders dropped 1.4% m/m, a much weaker than expected number. At the same time, June was revised down to 1.8% m/m from 2.0% m/m reported initially and the annual rate came in at -0.6%, versus 7.0% y/y in June. Annual rates over the summer can be volatile, due to the different timing of school holidays throughout the states, but still, the fall into negative territory highlights that while growth seems to have held up over the summer, downside risks to the economy have increased. The data will further fuel rate cut hopes and backs to the renewed jump in Bund futures at the start of the session.

ECB Increases Room to Maneuver: As expected, the ECB left monetary policy unchanged at the August council meeting. But Draghi was tricky, boosting bond as well as stock markets and bringing the EUR down with a technical tweak to the issue limits of QE purchases. In itself that doesn’t change the policy stance, but rather ensures that the central bank doesn’t run into supply constraints in its attempt to see through the current program.

US Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDPNow was revised up to 1.5% from 1.3% previously following personal consumption and auto sales updates. According to the regional Fed: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.5 percent on September 3, up from 1.3 percent on September 1. The nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth ticked up from 2.6 percent to 2.7 percent following yesterday afternoon’s release on August motor vehicle sales from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.”

US ISM non-manufacturing index dipped to 59.0 in August after exploding to 60.3 in July (which was the highest print since August 2005). It’s still the 3rd highest print on record however, though declines were broad-based. The business activity index slipped to 63.9 from 64.9. However, the employment index dropped to 56.0 from 59.6 previously. New orders fell to 63.4 from 63.8. New export orders dropped to 52.0 versus 56.5. Prices paid declined to 50.8 from 53.7.

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JPY has been strong across the board today. It is a logical continuation to the risk aversion move that started when the global stocks followed S&P 500 lower. JPY has been especially strong against AUD over the last three weeks. This has driven AUDJPY to a weekly support at 83.57. EURJPY made a lower high before dropping lower and is now approaching a weekly support at 131.87. CADJPY has also been weak and broken lower. The former pivotal support at 91.74 now limits the moves higher. GBPJPY is getting near to major support levels in the region of 179.30.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

 

Main Macro Events Today

• US Non-Farm Payrolls: August employment data should reveal a 215k (median 220k) headline that matches July’s 215k gain. The report will be closely scrutinized as the recent market volatility and weakness in China have renewed the debate about whether the Fed will raise rates at its September meeting. The volatile month weighed on producer sentiment measures for the month and consumer confidence was depressed as well lending adding downside risk to the release.
• Canada Employment numbers are expected to fall 5.0k in August (median -2.5k) after the 6.6k rise in July. Canada has yet to put together back to back gains this year. So far, we have seen an oscillating pattern of gains (Jan, Mar, July) followed by declines (Feb, Apr, June). Will August be different? We are betting not, hence we see a modest decline. An as-expected dip would not alter the key take away from the labour market this year — job growth may be modest but it is enough to keep the unemployment rate at 6.8% (with the help from a falling participation rate).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.03.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is trading near the upper weekly Bollinger Bands (20) after peaking higher last week. The move reached a high of 1.1714 and was reversed at a pivotal low from November 2005. This rejection brought the pair down to a level that resisted price moved higher in the beginning of August. This level also coincides with a rising trendline suggesting there is currently more potential in the upside while the immediate downside potential is limited. This view is supported by the Stochastics Oscillator (7,3,3) being oversold and starting to creep higher. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.1156 and 1.1369. The 1369 resistance is a daily high from Aug 27^th and a pivotal candle low.

The ECB is widely expected to keep policy unchanged, leaving the focus on the updated set of staff projections and the press conference. With growth forecasts overshadowed by concerns about China and lower than expected oil prices keeping headline inflation down, both growth and CPI forecasts are likely to be scaled back. In the base scenario the central bank is pretty much expected to remain on hold into next year, and Draghi will highlight the heightened risks to growth and highlight that the ECB stands ready to act should these risks materialise. Lower than expected inflation meanwhile is almost entirely due to lower oil prices and core inflation is rising, in tandem with money supply growth and a stabilisation in loan growth. If Draghi follows Constancio’s argument that the central bank needs to see through short term volatility caused by energy prices markets are likely to register disappointment, especially as some will be betting on a surprise move already today. So the EUR may rise again.

The IMF is warning the Fed not to tighten policy in a note to policymakers ahead of the weekend’s G20 gathering in Ankara. The Fund argued that the Fed should “remain data-dependent” and not take hasty action “with little evidence of meaningful wage and price pressures so far.” The IMF also calls on the ECB to extend QE, and for the BoJ to stand ready to do the same with its QQE program. The Fund is concerned about low inflation in major economies, arguing that “monetary policy must stay accommodative to prevent real interest rates from rising prematurely,” and also stressed that risks to the global economy have risen.

As central bankers ponder their next policy moves, Bank of International Settlements and IMF take very different views of persistent monetary policy accommodation and the fact that markets continue to rely on central banks. The IMF once again called on the Fed to refrain from hikes and the ECB to expand QE, while the BIS in its latest annual report called on policy makers to shift the view from short term stimulus to longer term growth measures to boost sustainable growth. Even ECB vice president Constancio said recently that monetary policy can only support not create growth and we tend to agree. Furthermore, as the BIS highlighted “signs of growing financial imbalances around the globe highlight the risks of accommodative monetary policies”. Adverse reactions even to the possibility of not so much monetary tightening but a reduction of the still very substantial degree of monetary accommodation highlight the challenges central banks will face when trying to return to more normal conditions. In this situation additional easing may only exacerbate the problem especially as low inflation is more than ever a function of oil prices, rather than the sign of broad based deflation risks, at least for Europe.

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Worries over Chinese economic growth are once again proving too hard for the buyers of AUD. The pair is down against all the competitors while the metals markets are down as well. AUDUSD is trading near a huge bottoming formation from year 2008 but at the moment there are no signs of this helping to support price. NZD has been rallying against the AUD today. According to newstalkzb.co.nz the price of milk powder rallied by over 12% a couple of days ago. This translated into AUDNZD dropping lower from a resistance level near the upper daily Bollinger Bands (20). The pair is now trading near a potential support in sideways range. EURAUD is trading above January 2015 highs but just below a resistance created in May 2008. That explains the strong reaction lower from 1.6340.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

 

Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone Jul retail sales rose 0.4% m/m, less than we expected, but with June revised up to -0.2% m/m from -0.6% m/m reported initially, the three months trend rate still picked up to 0.4% from 0.3% in the three months to June. The annual rate meanwhile jumped to 2.7% from 1.7% in June. The data confirms that consumption trends continue to support growth in Q3, which ties in with improving labour market and the rise in real disposable income also thanks to the low inflation environment.
• Canada Trade Balance: We expect a widening in the trade deficit to -C$1.0 bln in July (median -C$1.1 bln) from -C$0.5 bln in June. The key for the report will be exports, for which we have penciled in for a 0.3% m/m gain in July after the 6.3% surge in June. A mix of factors were present in July, as oil prices tumbled and the Canadian dollar depreciated. At any rate, further growth in exports would offer key support to the BoC’s constructive outlook for second half growth, especially in the wake of the 0.5% bounce in June GDP.
• US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of August 29th and should reveal an increase to a 278k (median 272k) headline from 271k in the week of August 22nd. Claims are poised to average 272k, steady from July when potential auto retooling distortions were at play. We expect August employment to reveal a 215k headline with the unemployment rate ticking down to 5.2% from 5.3% in July.
• US Non-Manufacturing ISM: Service sector producer sentiment is out today to finish off the August sentiment measures. We expect a decline to 58.0 (median 58.2) from 60.3 in July. Other sentiment measures for the month were much weaker and the ISM declined to 51.1 from 52.7. Overall, we expect the month’s ISM-adjusted average to drop to 51 after holding at 53 in both July and June.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.01.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The global stock market selloff continued in overnight trade in Asia, with the Nikkei dropping off another 3.84%. The USD traded mostly weaker; oil prices have fallen back off the recent high price near $54.3, and now trades just below $53 after rallying strongly over the three previous sessions. The USD weakness may be linked to the new declines in Chinese and global stock markets, this global selloff has investors and traders rethinking the timing of when the U.S. Fed will tighten rates. This uncertainty regarding the timing of a U.S. rate hike is fueling the current downward pressure on the USD. Markets will remain volatile until the markets see clearer signs from the U.S. Fed.

The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the immediate short term remains to be contained within the Aug 7th – Aug 12th upward slopping price channel. Now that the price has clearly bounced off the 1.12’s key, support current price potential is set to test the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. However, any break below 1.12 could open up a 1.11 target. A hypothetical trade set up could be to resell near the 1.1460’s – 1.1530’s for a 1.11 target.

German jobless numbers fell 7K in August, slightly more than expected and leaving the seasonally adjusted jobless rate steady at a low 6.4%. Official numbers still look good, but the improvement on the labour market is levelling off as the market is increasingly tight.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 2.0%, as widely expected and ignoring recent market turmoil in Chinese stock markets. The AUD is seen as adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices and further depreciation seems likely; however, the RBA is now cautious about adjusting rates lower because of the strong Australian property market.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The USD is softer across the board as declines in Chinese and global stock markets and the associated risk-off sentiment has served to erode Fed tightening expectations, which weighed on the USD.

The AUD is weaker post-RBA statement gains amid a backdrop of declining Asian and global stock markets.

The EUR and the GBP are mostly trading mixed as the EU commission maintains a 1.5% growth forecast, , and UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Manufacturing PMI: August manufacturing PMI revised down to 52.3 from 52.4 reported initially, which means the overall reading fell slightly from the 52.4 reported for July, despite the sharp jump in the German reading. Confidence indicators overall still held up in August, but the downward revision ties in with contraction in China and is likely to herald further weakness in coming months as demand falls off with slowing growth in emerging markets and uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy.

• GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed at 51.5 in August, down from July’s 51.9 reading and below the median forecast for 52.0. The August dip brings the PMI indicator to within a whisker of June’s two-year low of 51.4. The strong trade-weighted value of sterling has been curtailing the export-sensitive sector.

• CAD Gross Domestic Product: GDP is seen falling 1.0% in Q2 (q/q,) after the 0.6% drop in Q1. But the expected 0.2% gain in June GDP would end a five month run of monthly GDP declines and support Bank expectations that the economy will recover in 2H.

• USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: August ISM will be released later today and should reveal a headline decline to 52.5 (median 52.7) from 52.7 in July. Other measures of producer sentiment have been volatile for the month with big drops in the Empire State, and Richmond and Dallas Fed’s. The Philly Fed did manage to climb higher to 8.3 from 5.7 last month. Despite this the balance of risk for tomorrow’s release is to the downside and we expect the broader ISM-adjusted average for the month to fall to 52 after holding at 53 in both July and June.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.31.2015

EURUSD, Daily

Asian stock markets closed lower again in overnight trade, led by a 1.28% decline in the Nikkei 225, as the Chinese stock markets backed off following a Beijing announcement that large-scale purchases to support the market are not to be expected in the future. This weighed on regional equities, Asian and commodity currencies. At the time of writing, U.S. stock futures are down -125 points, setting the stage for a renewed decline in European stock markets.

Eurozone August inflation data is out later today and it should show a renewed drop in the headline rate closer towards zero in the wake of lower commodity prices, EUR traders will look for further ECB rate clues in language during the press conference on Thursday after the Minimum Bid Rate decision. Traders should also take note that ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Jackson Hole symposium that current inflation forecasts don’t price in recent declines in oil prices. This backs expectations for a downward revision to the central bank’s inflation forecasts at Thursday’s council meeting.

The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the short term is that price is bouncing off the 1.12’s key support level with price potential limited to the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. Price looks to be trading at the lower end of the short term upward price channel, and as long as the key 1.12’s hold firm the longs should maintain control over the immediate short term. Short sellers may present themselves on a break below the 1.12’s with support levels seen near the low 1.11’s – 1.1150’s.

Traders should pay some attention to the recent statements by Central Bank “centers of influence members” since a large part of the recent market volatility revolves around the uncertainty of the timing of rate adjustments. The U.S. Fed vice chairman Fischer saying over the weekend that “there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further,” while BoE Governor Carney said that China uncertainty was unlikely to change UK monetary policy. On Friday, Atlanta Fed moderate Lockhart said he’s less resolute on a September hike in wake of market volatility, according to a Market News report. Market turmoil may change the thinking on policy, he said, though the economy is in “quite solid mode of expansion.”

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current 5-day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.

The JPY is weaker across the board as the Japan CPI rose 0.2% y/y in July slowing from 0.4% in June. The AUD traded generally stronger as construction work done in Australia climbed 1.6% q/q for Q2 2015. The CAD is firmer after the CAD PPI in July inched up 0.1% y/y, after it had fallen 0.9% in June.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Consumer Price Index: EMU August CPI is expected to fall to 0.1% (median same) from 0.2%, this is mainly the result of lower oil prices. Sharply lower oil prices mean the inflation trajectory will likely look flatter than previously and at the same time the risks to growth have increased. Still, core inflation is actually trending higher, money supply growth is accelerating and loan growth stabilising. In this situation, the ECB will use low inflation to give markets some dovish sound-bites at Thursday’s central bank meeting and stress that the door to further measures remains open, without committing to further easing.

• USD Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index: The Chicago PMI continues the August producer sentiment releases later today and should reveal a headline improvement to 55.0 (median 54.9) from 54.7. Producer sentiment measures have been mixed so far in August and we expect the month’s ISM-adjusted average to decline to 52 after holding at 53 in both June and July.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.28.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The EURUSD hit a low near the key 1.12 support level on Thursday , I previously posted “I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.” This I posted when the EURUSD was trading around 1.1311. At the moment, the euro is likely to continue its bounce off the key support as buyers emerged to support price. The risk for short sellers is that the latest bounce could extend out towards the 1.14’s – 15’s. However, traders should be on alert for any price drop below the 1.12’s as this move may raise fears for a return towards the low 1.11’s to mid 1.1150’s.

The rebound on stock markets continued in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp up 1.77% and Japanese markets outperforming. The USD managed to firm up in the wake of renewed optimism about the U.S. economy following yesterday’s revised Q2 GDP, which also helped the U.S. Dow Jones to close up 2.30% on Thursday. Today, the Eurozone stock markets are broadly lower, with Eurozone markets underperforming and the DAX down around 8% for the month. The markets are now hoping that stimulus from central banks may have helped to limit the sell off. Uncertainty about growth and central bank outlooks is adding to market volatility and means the impact of stronger than expected data is unclear.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The AUD is weaker across the board as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. Also, the unrest in China’s stock markets remains the major risk factor for the AUD. The GBP trades lower after a bout of sterling buying in the wake of UK Q2 GDP data, which was unrevised at +0.7% q/q.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP UK Q2 GDP: UK GDP was left unrevised at +0.7% q/q and +2.6% y/y in second-estimate data, matching expectations. Growth in 2014 was also left unrevised, at 3.0%. The breakdown showed a 3.7% q/q rise in exports versus just a 0.6% q/q increase in imports, while consumer spending eased to +0.7% q/q. Encouragingly, business expenditure rose 2.9% q/q, the biggest rise in 12 months, and by 5.0% y/y.

• USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): The second release on Michigan Sentiment is out Today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 93.5 (median 94.0) after a 92.9 headline in the first release that marked a decline from 93.1 in July. The tendency over the past year has been for upward revisions and consumer confidence for the month spiked higher, rising to 101.5 from 91.0 in July. These two factors should lend upside risk to the release.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.27.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading generally weaker after posting broad based declines yesterday, as lower energy prices has led to a 1.7% decline in German import price inflation. The current lower inflation trajectory will give the ECB an excuse to talk down the euro; speculators should not rule out any further ECB QE expansion in the wake of the recent global market turmoil. I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.

European stock markets are broadly higher, following gains on Wall Street and in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp managing to extend gains in late trade closing with a 5.34% gain. The Nikkei closed 1.08% higher and the Hang Seng is up nearly 3%. In Europe, most markets are up around 2%, with the DAX leading the way with a 2.34% gain – the FTSE 100 is up 2.07% and the Euro Stoxx 2.20%.

Downbeat central bank comments are adding to market support with rate hike expectations in the U.S. and the U.K. being pushed back and the increased possibility that the ECB will move further into QE. Volatility is likely to remain high in this climate of uncertainty about the world growth outlook.

Dovish Fed speaking from Dudley, who said a September rate hike “seems less compelling to me” than a few weeks ago, had an impact on the markets with the Dow Jones closing up nearly +3.95% in Wednesday trade.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY continues to trade weaker across the board as the USDJPY bounces off the recent 1.1616 monthly low to break through to the upside of the 120’s.

The commodity driven currencies; AUD, CAD and NZD, are all trading stronger as Copper, Gold and Crude Oil firm up. The GBP remains mixed as cable traders digest the previous session’s sharp sell off of the GBPUSD.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Gross Domestic Price Index (Q2): The second release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 3.5% (median 3.3%) from 2.3% in the first release. Construction spending and inventories are expected to lead the revisions. We expect construction spending to be revised up by $17 bln, inventories by $16 bln, consumption by $11 bln and net exports and equipment spending should both be revised up by $2 bln.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 22nd are out later today and should reveal a decline in the headline to 274k (median 275k) after an increase to 277k in the August 15th week. Claims are continuing at restrained levels in August and we expect the average for the month to be 274k which compares to 272k in July and 277k in June.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.26.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The hope for a rebound in European stock markets didn’t last long, and equities are selling off again, with the DAX down at the market opening and below the 10000 mark. China’s rate cut yesterday by the People’s Bank of China initiated a rebound in Asian equity markets. It seems the realization in Europe is that the underlying problem is due to the fact that emerging markets are slowing down. The Euro Stoxx 600 has dropped 12% in August so far, and is heading for the worst monthly drop since 2008.

The medium term view on the EURUSD, since price has traded through the May tops at the 1.1430’s and then back under to touch below the 1.14 support on Tuesday, indicates that price still remains at risk of a continued retracement. The risk for longs is a re-visit towards the former major resistance 1.12 area where traders should watch for a potential higher low to develop before any attempt to retest the 1.17 recent high.

The USD gets some support as the U.S. consumer confidence rose sharply to 101.5 in August after climbing to 91.0 in June (revised from 90.9). It was 90.3 a year ago. This is the best level since March. The USD is trading mostly higher against the JPY, GBP, AUD and CHF, ahead of today’s Core Durable Goods Orders data.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY is weakening across the board as regional stocks rose. The CAD is stronger against all majors as Crude prices firm up.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Durable Goods Orders: July durable goods data is out today and should show orders up 1.0% (median -0.5%) following a 3.4% bounce in June. Markets expect shipments to be up 1.5% from 0.5% in June and inventories to be up 0.6%, the same pace as June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio down to 1.66 after two months at 1.68. There is some downside risk as Boeing orders fell to 101 in July from 181 in June.

• USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks: Dudley is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.