Free Forex Signals for 07.23.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, having cleared the 1.0970’s at the time of this writing, is now on its way to print a new lower top (below the July 10th high of 1.1216), ideally around the 1.1030’s in order to keep the daily chart downtrend channel intact. The stochastic momentum indicator indicates that the current corrective bounce is picking up steam. A further move beyond the 1.1030’s should not be ruled out as price may extend towards the 1.1140’s before breaking down to continue towards my medium term downtrend price target near the 1.0750’s.

Markets are scaling back on any Grexit premiums since Greece has now paved the way for the start of official bailout talks by pushing through a number of reform measures last night. Another positive EUR development was that Spanish unemployment fell during Q2; however, at 22.37% it is still high.

The USD had some support as a strong existing home sales report helped USD sentiment. U.S. existing home sales rose 3.2% to a 5.49mm in June, which was better than expected.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against the majors. The GBP is weaker across the board against most pairs, while the NZD has strength across the board.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Retail Sales: Unexpectedly fell by 0.2% m/m. The median forecast had been for a 0.3% m/m rise, which would have been unchanged from May. The y/y figure worked out at +4.0%, down from May’s +4.7%. The weakness stemmed from a 0.3% drop in food sales and a 0.9% fall in household goods, which probably reflects month-to-month volatility as there doesn’t appear to be a rationale for the declines.

• EUR Spanish unemployment fell in Q2: Still very high 22.37% from 23.78% in the previous quarter. The government estimates growth at 1.0% q/q in Q2, and the Spanish economy continues to outperform the other big Eurozone countries as the reform measures take hold. Still, unemployment is slow to adjust down and the high youth unemployment rate also reflects remaining structural issues and is fuelling popular resistance to the reform path. With Spain heading for elections in autumn a repeat of the Greek debacle is not unlikely and the risk that reforms are being reversed is not negligible. It is expected that retail sales will expand 0.5% m/m in May (median +0.6%) after the 0.1% drop in April.

• NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand : Cut rates 25 bps to 3.00%, matching expectations.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 07.22.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, now having touched the lower end of my initial 1.0970’s corrective bounce target, should open up the way for a 1.1030’s lower top on any clean break of the 1.0970’s. Daily chart price action is still well contained within my downward sloping bear channel; Stochastic Oscillator analysis supports a further corrective bounce before any resumption of the daily chart downtrend. Traders may look to open new short positions within the 1.1030’s for a measured move (March lows – May highs) that may extend price lower towards a retest of the 1.0840’s.

Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday upgraded Greece’s sovereign credit rating by two notches and revised its outlook to stable from negative, citing euro zone countries initial agreement to start negotiations with the country on a third bailout. The probability of Greece leaving the Eurozone is less than 50% , however the country may still face shrinking GDP.

U.S. Fed’s annual industrial production revisions showed production knocked down to 0.2% in June, versus the prior 0.3% print, while May was left at -0.2%, with April revised up to a -0.3% pace from -0.5% previously. Capacity utilization for June was revised down sharply to 77.8% from 78.4%, while May was nudged to 77.7% from 78.2%, with April at 78.0% versus 78.5%. At the margin, the data add to the argument for the FOMC to delay a September rate hike.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading lower against the GBP and the JPY. The GBP is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: The Bank of England (BoE) will begin to tighten monetary policy as late as in the third quarter of 2016, EY ITEM Clubsaid in its latest forecast for the UK economy.

• USD Existing Home Sales: Existing home sales for June are forecasted at 5.330M , median 5.400M both lower from last 5.3550M

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 07.21.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, now having cleared the 1.0840’s, is currently testing the May 27th lows as price action managed to dip briefly to 1.0811 earlier today in what looked like limit orders being filled. However, buyers soon emerged to pushed price back above the 1.0820 key support area. Traders should expect price to re-test the 1.0820 area several times as buyers seem to be re-emerging around that zone. If price can manage to close the day above the 1.0820’s this will further support the view of an initial bounce towards the 1.0970’s – 1.1030’s as discussed in my previous reports. Short term EURUSD traders should remain on alert for session closing prices above the key 1.0820’s support area that may open the way for an initial bounce towards the 1.0970’s -1.1030’s; however, if we see a session close below 1.0820’s that will favor fresh weakness towards the 1.0750’s.

Now that the Greek bailout deal has been put to the side for the moment, the markets can get back to focusing on important fundamental market moving data. The PMI number should dominate the remainder of the week with the Eurozone PMI numbers out on Friday.

The U.S. Fed’s Bullard said “the probability of a September rate liftoff is above 50%”, he also said that Greek uncertainties appear to be behind us, and that China’s stock market volatility is not large enough to impact U.S. monetary policy.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against the USD, GBP and the JPY. The NZD is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Consumption growth had been little changed for most trading partners in recent months, although it was perhaps a bit stronger in the United States and somewhat weaker in China.

• GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing: The forecast for June is for -8.0B down from 9.4B

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Free Forex Signals for 07.20.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, despite bearish momentum signals by stochastic oscillator analysis and a “Dow Pattern” down trend observation within the daily chart, may look to bounce off the May 27th low (1.0819) level to seek a lower top, ideally, around the 1.0970’s -1.1030’s. Short term traders may look into selling at any strength around the mentioned lower tops with targets into the 1.0750’s.

The EUR economic calendar started out this week with steady German June PPI inflation data; German inflation fell -1.4& y/y with prices down 0.1% m/m, as heating oil prices dropped 4.1% m/m. Last week, the EUR faced several important thresholds in terms of the ECB policy meeting and some resolutions regarding Greece. This week, we have a relatively light economic calendar so traders should expect to see lower volatility levels from last week with price action firmly in control of the technical traders.

The dollar is firm against gold and the AUD in overnight Asian trade, although, the AUD has since recovered off today’s lows. This USD strength is set to resume from Friday trade as in-line CPI and better housing starts, numbers give support to the USD.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading lower against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD. The NZD is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• German Jun PPI inflation: was steady at -1.4% y/y, with prices down 0.1% m/m, as heating oil prices declined 4.1% m/m, after rising 2.4% m/m in May. Energy prices dropped 4.4% y/y and remain the dominating factor behind the sharp decline in prices over the year.

• CAD Wholesale Sales: for May are forecasted to come in at 0.5%, median -0.2% down from last 1.9% on the back of weaker commodity prices.

• USD Treasury Secretary Lew Speaks: is due to speak about the importance of financial reform.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 07.17.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is now trading at the lower end of the daily chart downtrend channel after breaking below the key 1.0920’s levels earlier this week. The short term outlook still remains bearish even after a failed attack on the 1.0840’s 2nd target extension during yesterday’s trading session. At the time of writing, price seems to be bouncing off the lower Bollinger band; ideally, I would like to see a lower top around the 1.0970’s – 1.1030’s before initiating any new short sales. Traders should expect to see some choppy trading during the next bounce before any resumption of any attack on the 1.0840’s, if these levels are cleared, the next leg lower should leave price to hang around the 1.0750’s.

The ECB and the markets would like to move past Greece; focus was on the ECB policy meeting yesterday which, as expected, left monetary policy unchanged. Reporters, however, did not feel that it was time to move past Greece with the ECB press conference dominated by questions regarding Greece. The good news for Greece is that the European Central bank lifted the ELA assistance for Greek banks, removing any immediate fears that Greek Banks would not have any funds for depositors to withdraw. What still remains unclear for the Greeks is how long exchange controls will remain in place.

The dollar was firm during most of the N.Y. session on Thursday, although, the greenback did trade a bit softer upon the release of the Philly Fed index. For Friday trading, expect some USD price action upon the release of the USD Building Permits, CPI and later Uom Consumer Sentiment reports.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD.

GBP is strong against the JPY, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• US Housing Starts: June housing starts are out Friday and should show a 5.7% increase for the headline to a 1,095k (median 1,108k) following a big gyration in April-May that saw starts shoot up to 1,165k in April before dropping back to 1,036k in May. Accompanying the report we expect permits to slow to 1,105k from 1,250k in May and completions to slow 1,105k from 1,034.

• US CPI: June CPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.3%) increase for the headline with a matching 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. The already released PPI data revealed a headline increase of 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. Plunging oil prices over the winter and spring worked to depress inflation measures but we have begun to see some rebound as this effect dissipates.

•  Canada CPI: We expect CPI, due Friday, to expand at a 1.0% y/y pace in June (median same at +1.0%) following the 0.9% y/y rate in May. CPI is seen rising 0.3% on a month comparable basis in June (median +0.2%) after the 0.6% bounce in May. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen dipping 0.1%, similar to the action seen in past months of June. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate in June (median 2.2%), identical to the 2.2% clip in May. Core CPI saw a 2.3% y/y rate in April and a blistering 2.4% rate of increase in March.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 07.16.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD managed to clear the 1.0920’s lower short term 1st target after failing to hold above the key 1.0960’s levels. According to my daily chart observations, looking back over the past six weeks, a down trend is being observed. This downtrend observation is supported by the fact that price is printing a series of new lower consecutive tops and lower bottoms over the last six weeks. Technically, the EURUSD remains soft, and after the clean break of the 1.0920’s, EURUSD short traders should keep an eye on the 1.0840’s as the next relevant target. EURUSD long traders will be watching the 1.0950’s -60’s areas for any potential price bounce upward penetration to leave a new lower top around the 1.1030’s-70.

The ECB seems to have some concerns about the re-opening of the Greek banks. ECB’s Dombret said in a speech that “it must be made sure that there is enough available liquidity, should depositors want to withdraw more money after the opening of the recapitalized bank”. Dombret also questioned if the Greek major banks are capable of surviving in the long term.

Fed Chair Yellen during yesterday’s testimony to congress gave an upbeat view regarding the US economy; however, she did not confirm or deny a September rate hike. Yellen did reiterate that tightening will likely happen sometime in 2015. The markets took this as a clue that it’s still Dollar time.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.  This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains soft against the USD.  AUD is strong against the NZD, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Capacity Utilization June stood at 78.4% against 78.2% in May. The economy has improved, but still has a way to go.
• CAD Bank of Canada cut its key rate to 0.5% from 0.75% on July 15 in the hope of giving the economy a boost. Also, CAD Manufacturing sales in May were up 0.1% after having fallen 2.2% in April.
• GBP Unemployment increased to 5.6% in the three months to May, the lowest since April-June 2008. At the same time, wages grew at the fastest pace in more than five years.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 07.15.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD trades within a tight range over the last 24 hours; the 1.1050’s and 1.0960’s seem to be the key break out levels. A breach above the 1.1050’s will open up a daily chart lower top target around 1.1120’s – 60’s. Any move below the 1.0960’s could lead the pair lower towards the 1.0920’s with the possibility of even 1.0840’s as reasonable targets for traders who are considering EURUSD short positions.

Yesterday’s EURUSD trading managed to trade higher near the 1.1085 level after the weak U.S. retail sales data; the key driver for the pair still remains to be the outcome over the Greek saga, since finding a resolution between the Greek creditors remains illusive. As long as no real progress is seen regarding Greece, more downward pressure on the EUR looks likely. Something that may be on the minds of some EUR traders is whether the ECB will make a move to intervene in the FX market to support the EUR? My view is that this is something that can’t be ruled out, however, the fact that the ECB is still at an early stage with regards to QE programs can only support the potential downside price action for the EURUSD. The likelihood of any ECB intervention is highly unlikely; however, stranger things have happened in the past.

It is expected that the ECB will keep policy unchanged for this week’s interest rate announcement on Thursday, while the ECB continues to call on Eurozone members to implement reforms. It is expected that the ECB will remain on hold for the rest of the year, while the ongoing commitment to implementing QE continues. The unknown risk to the market is that should contagion happen because of the Greek crisis, any sudden ECB measures, as a response, could lead to market adjustments that may not already be priced in.

The latest release of the U.S. FOMC minutes showed a cautiously positive outlook, but concerns over Greece and a China slowdown does not guarantee that the U.S. fed will make any upward moves for interest rates in September.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies. This morning EUR is trading higher against the other majors. Commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains soft against the USD.  AUD is struggling to trade above 0.7496 July 10th high while GBPJPY battles for continued upward momentum. Across the board money seems to be supporting the USD.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Business confidence in Australia improved in June, as its index came in with a score of +10. That’s up from the upwardly revised +8 in May (originally +7), and it also marks the highest reading since September 2013.

• USD Retail sales fell by 0.3% in June. The drop in sales came following a 1.0% in May, which was downwardly revised compared to the 1.2% jump originally reported. On a y/y basis retail sales in June were up by 1.4%, reflecting a notable deceleration from the 2.3% annual growth seen in May.

• GBP CPI remained unchanged y/y, in contrast to a 0.2% increase in. Output prices decreased 1.5% y/y in June following a 1.6% drop in May. Prior to July 2014, there has been no fall in the annual rate since October 2009.Input prices declined sharply by 12.6% y/y in June, bigger than a 12.3% fall in May. On a monthly basis, input prices declined for the second month. Prices slid 1.3% after easing 1.1% in May. House price inflation accelerated to 5.7% in May from 5.5% in April. Month-on-month, average house prices gained 0.9% percent.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 07.14.2015

EURUSD, Daily EURUSD at current levels does not seem to have a clear trend within my daily chart observations. The pair looks to be heading back to recent lows, after briefly touching the 1.1216 recovery attempt on the back of what the market thought was a positive development on the Greek debt solution. The fact the pair managed to break the physiological 1.10 level may also point to bearish momentum building up, thus raising fears of a further downward price extension past the 1.0920’s and possible opening up the 1.0840’s in the short term. The fact that the Eurogroup still has to secure bridge financing for Greece ,a process that may take up to four weeks, will cast some doubts over the markets if Greece would be able to deliver upcoming repayments to the ECM and the IMF? Uncertainty will prevail for position traders while the market timers will rely on the technical price indicators, as the battle between the buyers and sellers for control of the pair continues. Inside the ECB, Mr. Coene, a representative to the Supervisory Board said “Grexit would not have been a better solution “, “In the first phase , a Grexit would without a doubt be more painful.” However , he did add that the Greek economy would recover more quickly. Looking back at the Argentina bankruptcy, having the ability to print your way out may be easier for the Greek government to bring the economy back on track. Greece staying within the Eurozone is more political than financial , not only for Greek politicians, but also for key forces within the Eurozone. The latest USD data to report on are that U.S. Wholesale inventories increased by 0.8% in May after rising by 0.4% in April. Wholesale sales rose by 0.3% in May after surging up by 1.7% in April. Later on today we have the USD Core Retails Sales due out.

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change) The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies. This morning EUR is trading higher while JPY is down again as the need for safe haven dissipates. Other currencies’ performance remains soft against the USD and without strong directional bias. USCAD has rallied to a resistance at 127.98 while GBPJPY battles for continued upward momentum. Across the board money seems to be moving in the CHF indicating traders are moving back into safe haven positions.

Main Macro Events Today

• U.K. CPI dipped to 0.0% in June from +0.1% y/y, the inflation rate still remains above April’s cycle low of -0.1% y/y.
• U.S. Core Retail Sales data out later today forecast calls for a decrease of 0.7% below the previous 1.0% numbers

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 07.13.2015

EURUSD, Daily

I was expecting EURUSD to move towards the 1.1188 intraday resistance on Friday. This resistance was reached and then penetrated before EURUSD fell back to 1.1125 S&R level. This morning EURUSD rallied to the same resistance area after the news that Euro group had reached a deal on helping Greece.  At the time of writing the pair has corrected lower and reached a support level at 1.1056.  There is intraday resistance at 1.1085 which is likely to cause troubles for longs. Daily technical picture looks weak after the pair has not been able to stay inside the rising trend channel. Resistance at 1.1190 is a weekly pivotal candle low while 1.1000 is a weekly pivotal candle high and has been providing support to EURUSD.

Eurozone reaches deal on Greece that could pave the way for a third bailout programme. After epic talks there was finally a deal that will allow Greece to stay in the Eurozone, if, and that is still a rather big if, Tsipras gets sufficient backing for further concessions at home and the other countries manage to get the deal through their respective legislative processes. German lawmakers, who won the right to sanction even the mandate for talks on a bailout package, won’t be very happy to be presented with what looks like a done deal, even if formal talks are still to start. Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem said trust was a key issue in the talks and confirms that a fund will “monetize” some Greek assets. There will be no debt forgiveness for Greece, according to Malta’s Muscat.

The Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a cautiously optimistic view of the economy in her speech on Friday, though affirming that a rate hike later this year is appropriate, assuming “unanticipated developments” don’t delay or accelerate it.  The Fed’s biggest challenge is to make sure the financial system is strong enough and resilient enough to whether another crisis like that of the last decade. It’s the Fed’s task to be much more vigilant and much better prepared than was the case previously.

Yellen also took a swipe at the IMF saying that advice from the fund on US rates is “part of the spectrum opinion” on appropriate policy and the overemphasis on timing of the lift-off is less important than the full path of policy over time. In other words, thanks for your advice on holding off on rate hikes until 2016, Madame Lagarde, but no thanks. Fed looks at a number of labor market metrics as they judge the degree of slack in the market. Currently she judges that there is more slack in the data than is suggested by the current 5.3% rate. The Committee generally sees the 5.0% to 5.2% range as a normal rate, she said.

The 0.8% US May wholesale inventory rise beat estimates on Friday to signal some upside Q2 GDP growth risk, though a lean 0.3% May sales rise only slightly extended the 1.7% (was 1.6%) April pop, and much of the inventory strength reflected a price-led 4.4% petroleum inventory rise. The sales rise was disappointing and left a mixed report for the outlook overall, though we at least now have the first two gains for this measure since July of last year. Today’s wholesale trade figures are consistent with our 2.7% Q2 GDP growth estimate, with a $35 bln Q2 inventory subtraction that follows a $19.5 bln Q1 addition, with a still-elevated $64 bln Q2 accumulation rate that leaves room for a small further inventory unwind into Q3.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the last daily close at 23:59:59 server time. The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

After the news about Euro group reaching a deal on Greece money has been flowing out of CHF and to some extent from EUR as well. The clear winner has been the GBP with CHF losing the most against it, a sign of unwinding risk aversion trades. Market participants are more prepared to accept risk again but seem to prefer looking for returns in a currency that is deemed the next in line after the USD in rising rates.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for GBP pairs are:

 

Main Macro Events Today

• Japan industrial production and Tertiary Index disappointed and came in at -3.9% and -0.7% respectively.

• Eurogroup meeting. A deal was struck to help Greece. Now the deal has to be accepted in local parliaments.

• US Treasury Budget: June treasury data is out today and should reveal a $50 bln (median $41.0 bln) surplus for the month following an $82.4 bln deficit last month and a $70.5 bln surplus a year ago. Receipts are expected to be up 6% y/y with outlays up 15.8% y/y.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 07.10.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is yet once again trading at the same resistance it failed to penetrate yesterday. After moving lower the pair found support at 1.1000 support. Earlier on the day the disappointing US jobless claims figures failed to move market significantly but later in the US session buyers stepped in at around 1.1000 support and sent EUR higher. Higher low formed yesterday suggests that EURUSD will try to push higher today. At the time of writing the pair has reacted lower from the daily resistance created by rising trend channel and 1.1135 resistance. However the pair has also made a high print of 1.1134 (yesterday’s high was 1.1125) and found support from 1.1080 while the next significant intraday resistance level is at 1.1188. I am expecting EURUSD to move higher and towards the 1.1188 intraday resistance today. The nearest daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0930 and 1.1135.

Greece submitted its reform proposals at the 11th hour as it seeks an additional EUR 53.5 bln ($59 bln) in bailouts. The 10-page document included many reform measures which had been sought by the EU, including government spending cuts for pensions. PM Tsipras also agreed to shift a variety of goods and services into higher sales tax categories. In return for accepting even harsher measures than previously proposed, the government wants a commitment from creditors to further negotiate long-term debt conditions. Officials, including those from the IMF, will analyze the proposals prior to Saturday’s EU finance ministers meeting, prior to the EU summit on Sunday. Risk appetite is likely to extend higher into the weekend on this news.

Greece’s concessions could save the day. The last minute reform proposals are similar creditor’s proposal from June 24, which voters rejected in a referendum last Sunday. The new proposals are to be checked for feasibility and sustainability by ECB, European Commission and IMF prior to the Eurogroup meeting Saturday and the summit on Sunday, according to newspaper reports, but initial reviews suggest Tsipras made more concessions, while also asking for a review of debt sustainability. The important part here is to stress that this doesn’t need to be haircuts, which no-one is asking for, but could also be a further extension of the debt schedule and lower interest rates, something finance ministers already discussed last year. Although officials will likely want to see signs that reforms are not just promised but actually implemented, before committing to such a move.

ECB ultimatum may have aided reform concessions. A dutch newspaper reported that the ECB will terminate ELA as of 6 am Monday morning if Greek reform proposals are deemed too light and Greece is unwilling to cooperate with withdrawal from the Eurozone. The reports cites an unidentified EU official and the ECB’s final ultimatum may have helped to produce somewhat of a turnaround in Greece, which seems to have finally ended the posturing and put meat on the reform proposals.

U.S. initial jobless claims surged 15k to 297k in the July 4 week, following the 11k jump to 282k in the prior week (revised from 281k). This brought the 4-week moving average to 279.5k versus 275k (revised from 274.75k. Continuing claims jumped 69k to 2,334k in the week ended June 27 from 2,265k in the prior week (revised from 2,264k). The larger than expected increase in jobless claims is likely more a function of the July 4 holiday than a change in the labor market, even though the BLS said there was nothing unusual in the data.

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (percentage change from previous day’s close)

This morning EUR is trading higher while JPY is down again as the need for safe haven dissipates. Other currencies’ performance remains mixed and without strong directional bias. USDJPY has rallied to a resistance at 122.08 while EURJPY battles with a resistance level at 135.72. CADJPY is nicely up from the support at 94.83 and same applies to GBPJPY that has rallied from 185.02 support. NZDJPY has rallied to a resistance at 82.51.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• Japan PPI dropped 2.4% y/y in June, from -2.2% y/y in May, and -2.1% in April. For the month, PPI declined 0.2%, ending a string of 3 straight gains. The data are having little impact as the focus is on the rally in risk assets on hope Greece can strike a deal now they have finally submitted reform proposals. The Topix is up over 1% while JGBs are lower as safety trades are unwound. JPY is also losing ground versus the EUR and USD.
• Canadian Employment Change: employment is likely to fall 15.0k in June (median -7.5k) after the 58.9k surge in May. Canada has yet to put together back to back gains this year. So far, we have seen an oscillating pattern of gains (Jan, Mar) followed by declines (Feb, Apr). Will June be different? We are betting not, especially given that May was the largest one month gain since October of 2014′s 62.2k. An as-expected drop would be supportive of another rate cut this year.
• US Fed Chair Yellen’s Speech

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.