FX News Today

Bullard: four rate hikes may still be about right after the strong US jobs number, though inflation remains uncertain. He said that neither the markets nor the Fed are thinking about a January hike, while more information is needed before making a call on March. He would be more inclined to put weight on inflation if expectations continue to decline, though he still thinks the economy is set to grow 2.5-3.0% this year. Bullard doesn’t think the Fed needs to “re-litigate” China concerns, since the country should still grow around 6%. He does see some pick-up in wages beyond inflation and productivity as an indication that the labor market is tight. He doesn’t believe that oil prices need to stabilize before a second Fed hike, though still-weak oil would weigh on the committee’s deliberations. This has a more hawkish overtone relative to his earlier dovish remarks on oil and inflation risks.

The BoE did the expected and kept monetary policy on hold at the January meeting. The voting pattern, which saw a broad majority of 8 in favour of keeping rates steady, with one dissenter, was also as expected. The statement and especially the minutes show, however, that uncertainty is rising. Growth projections as well as near term inflation projections seem to have been revised down already and the doubts concerning the medium to long term inflation forecasts seem to be on the rise as well. The February Inflation Report is likely to bring more clarity.

Yesterday’s US reports revealed big December trade price drops with yet another round of surprisingly big export price declines, and a 7k (seasonally adjusted) initial claims pop that masked a hefty 99k (not seasonally adjusted) increase. The renewed trade price plunge predictably reflects historic declines in energy prices, sharp gains in the value of the dollar, a global growth slowdown, an inventory overhang that is depressing prices, and a shifting supply-demand dynamic in the global petroleum industry that has wacked the factory sector. The initial claims rise likely reflects the ongoing difficulties of seasonal adjustment, though claims have clearly trended higher since early December to remove some of the upside risk that claims have routinely provided for the job growth outlook. We peg January payroll growth at 200k.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Retail Sales: December retail sales will be released today and should show a 0.1% (median 0.1%) headline increase with the ex-autos component up 0.3% (median 0.3%). This follows November figures of 0.2% for the headline and 0.4% for ex-autos. The report faces divergent forces from firm construction data and chain store sales but the slowdown in auto sales and continued declines in gasoline prices will likely weigh.
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The first release on January Michigan Sentiment is expected to show an increase in the headline to 92.8 (median 93.0) from 92.6 in December’s final release. The already released IBD/TIPP poll for January improved slightly with an uptick to 7.3 from 47.2 in December. Gasoline prices continued to decline in December and the first half of this month which could help lift the headline.

• US Industrial Production: December industrial production is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median -0.3%) decline for the month. This would be the fourth month of consecutive declines, following drops of 0.6% in November, 0.4% in October and 0.1% in September. The December employment report revealed another month of weak data in the mining sector which will likely continue to weigh as oil prices continue to decline. We expect the capacity utilization rate to fall to 76.7% from 77.0% in November.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

German GDP growth accelerated to 1.7% in 2015, from 1.6% in 2014 and in line with expectations. On a working day adjusted basis though, growth slowed to 1.5% from 1.6%, so despite the improvement in the headline number the German economy didn’t quite escape the slowdown in world growth, but both numbers are clear above the long term average of 1.3%. The German statistical office said that growth was relatively broad based across the manufacturing and construction as well as the services sectors. Overall then a solid number, although even in Germany structural issues remain and this year the refugee influx will put a strain on the economy.

ECB lowers Greek ELA ceiling to EUR 72 blnfrom EUR 75.8 bln. The Greek central bank said in a statement that the ECB did not object to lowering the ceiling by EUR 3.8 bln, which reflects an improvement of the liquidity situation of Greek banks amid a reduction of uncertainty and the stabilisation of private sector deposit flows, as well as the progress achieved in the recapitalisation process of Greek banks”.

Fed Beige Book: “mostly positive” was the outlook on future economic growth in the District reports for the January 26-27 FOMC meeting, seeming to supplant the “modest to moderate” mantra that had been in place for more than a year. Labor markets were seen to have tightened further, in four districts along with “flat to moderate” wage pressures, half reporting higher wage pressures for more skilled workers and those positions in short supply. Manufacturing remained weakened, with the declines in commodities/oil, the stronger dollar, and slipping global demand remaining headwinds for most districts (energy sector hurt in particular). Consumer spending was moderate, though credit conditions generally improved, along with growth in loan demand. The Book was prepared by the Philly Fed with data collected before January 4, which wouldn’t include the December payrolls print.

Chicago Fed dove Evans said he pays attention to international developments and how they impact the U.S. economy, noting he will monitor the effects of the decline in China’s growth. We thought he might take this global path on the economic outlook and monetary policy, given his dovish credentials. In addition, he says that the Fed is about as transparent as it can be.

 

Main Macro Events Today

• Bank of England interest rate decision: The BoE policy announcement is widely expected to see the bank leave policy unchanged. We expect the vote also to remain unchanged from last month, with 8-1 in favour of leaving the repo rate at its historic low of 0.5%. Come March, it’ll be seven years that the rate has been at this level and we don’t expect a tightening until later in the year. Last week’s December PMI survey data were sympathetic to the view that the BoE is likely to tighten policy later and it will be interesting to see in the minutes in how far the most recent bout of risk aversion and the slump in oil prices have rattled policy makers.
• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: markets wait for Draghi’s views on economic and monetary developments.
• US Jobless Claims:S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 272k (median 270k) in the week-ended January 9. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,200k for the week-ended January 2. Forecast risk: downward, as layoffs from holiday hiring could boost claims. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could slow the path of rate hikes.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

Oil prices are pushing 12-year lows, trading below $31 bbl at the time of writing, as concerns about the global economy push traders into risk-off mode.

Commodity related currencies are under-performing the USD, with the AUD, NZD, and CAD all under pressure.

The U.S. Dow Jones stock markets closed higher on Monday, suggesting that the recent stock market sell off is starting to stabilize.

The EUR attempted to rally back over 1.0900, however failed to keep gains and fell back into the mid 1.08’s with the EURUSD lacking any meaningful direction without any market moving European economic data.

The economic calendar for today does not have any heavy data release on tap, apart from the GBP Industrial Production and the USD November JOLTS job opening survey.

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. November Industrial Production: Analyst expected a rise of 0.1% m/m, actual missed , and came in lower at -0.4%.

• USD Fed’s Stanley Fischer to Speak: No commentary

• EUR ECB speak from Praet and Lautenschlaeger: On January 6, 2016 Praet said the following “the ECB stands ready to take all measures that are necessary to bring inflation to 2%. If you print enough money you will always get inflation. Always”. “But if oil and commodities prices tumble, it is more difficult to allow inflation to rise. If a whole series of such factors occur, you can’t do anything other than somewhat postpone the data on which you seek to reach the higher rate of inflation”. “The emergence of bubbles is a justified concern”.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

German trade surplus narrowed slightly in November. Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 19.7 bln in November, down from EUR 20.5 bln in the previous month. German industrial production fell -0.3% m/m in November, an unexpected contraction as strong orders inflow in October and November boosted hopes for a rebound in activity.

Lane: ECB can do more if data shows its necessary. New Irish central bank head Lane, who replaced Hononan, said that even after the adjustment of QE in December “its important to say that no door has been closed. If the data flow over the next number of months is that more needs to be done, more can me done. In other words, it’s now becoming a more normalised instrument that every number of months the analysis can be updated and that if more needs to be done, more can be done”.

Chinese markets opened up in a better mood after authorities suspended circuit breakers overnight prior to their reopening, with the Shanghai Comp opening 2.2% higher and the CSI300 some 2.4% firmer, while the onshore yuan initially rallied to 6.5640 compared to 6.5945 lows on Thursday before quickly backpeddling to the 6.5850 area. It may take a while for the PBoC adviser story to sink in, which called for a 10-15% devaluation of the yuan in a single move along with capital controls. Japan’s N-225 is up some 0.7% to start, but its still early in the session and the U.S. payrolls report looms later.

Fed dove Evans believes a very gradual tightening path is prudent and will help ensure the inflation goal is met, in his speech on Managing the Dots on Monetary Policy. Indeed, his forecast is for a slower pace of hikes than the dot-plot than envisions 4 quarter point moves this year. And, he favors additional accommodation should the economy be hit by an unexpected shock. Slower global growth is offsetting the more positive momentum in the U.S. to some extent, and suggests the funds rate may be headed for a “lower resting point” than has historically been the case. He reiterated there’s no predetermined path of tightening, and the “road ahead may need to be modified” based on incoming data. The 5% unemployment rate is near full employment and indicates the Fed has made great progress, but there’s still some slack in the system, leaving the Fed short of its employment mandate. Evans is not a voter this year.

Bank of Canada Outlook: Poloz maintained a constructive view on Canada’s ongoing adjustment to the terms of trade shock that was wrought by the plunge in oil and commodity prices. On oil, he did not seem concerned over the most recent bout of weakness, saying “adjustments have to happen” and there is nothing policy makers can do about the price of oil.

 

Main Macro Events Today

• US Non-Farm Payrolls: December employment is out on Friday and should reveal a 200k (median 201k) headline that follows a 211k addition in November. We expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 5.0% (median 5.0%) for a third month. The release faces some upside risk from firm ADP readings, a slight bounce in producer sentiment and continued restraint from initial claims
• US Wholesale Trade: November wholesale trade data is released Friday and should show sales unchanged (median unchanged) on the month with inventories down 0.1%. This follows respective October figures which revealed a flat rate for sales and a 0.1% decline for inventories. The already released November factory goods data had sales up 0.2%, inventories down 0.3% and orders down 0.2%. Data in line with our forecast would leave the November wholesale I/S ratio steady at 1.31 for a fourth month.
• Canada Employment: We expect employment, to rise 10.0k in December after the 35.7k plunge in November. Canada’s job market has been hit by onetime factors in recent months, which makes for a more challenging than usual forecasting task for December. And education payrolls rose just 6.0k in November after the 3.6k dip in October and 51.3k plunge in September that was the largest on record. Perhaps the make-up for September’s loss will happen in December? An as-expected gain would be welcome news given the recent run of disappointing data, consistent with the BoC ongoing patience on growth.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

A tumultuous session in Asia, initiated by China stocks markets closing limit down within the first half an hour of trade, saw the yen extend recent outperformance and the commodity currencies extend recent underperformance. Asian currencies, ex-yen, also went into a tailspin, although most managed to regain poise as the session progressed. AUDJPY, which is a forex proxy of China sentiment, dove to a new four-month low, and AUDUSD a three-month low. The NZD and CAD also fell to new lows. Oil prices dove over 4%, driving Brent crude prices to fresh 11-year lows. The catalyst of the carnage was an accelerated depreciation of the yuan, of 0.5% today, which is the biggest drop since last August.

German Nov retail sales up 0.2% m/m, a tad weaker than expected and bringing the annual rate to 2.3% y/y from 2.5% y/y in October. The three months trend rate was unchanged at 0.2%. Annual rates remain robust and monthly numbers are volatile and subject to sizeable revisions, but on the whole the data confirms that consumption remains underpinned by the improvement in real disposable income on the back of rising wages, low unemployment and low oil prices.

German Nov orders much stronger than expected. Manufacturing orders jumped 1.5% m/m in November, after already rising a very strong 1.7% m/m in the previous month. The robust rise lifted the annual rate to 2.1% y/y from -1.6% y/y and while the three months trend rate remains in negative territory, it improved markedly from -1.3% from -2.9% in the three months to October. The numbers tie in with the better than expected confidence readings and show the German economy on track for ongoing robust growth.

World Bank cut its global growth outlook to 2.9% for 2016, versus the prior 3.3% projection from June. It missed its 2015 estimate of 2.8% on the low side as GDP rose only 2.4% last year, a 5th straight year below 3%. The forecast for Chinese growth was trimmed to 6.7% versus 7.0% previously, while the U.S. expansion was shaved to 2.7% from 2.8%, due in part to the damping effect of the firmer dollar. The Bank also sees a “low probability risk of disorderly” slowing in major emerging markets due to Fed tightening, a firmer dollar, and geopolitical concerns.

FOMC minutes indicated nearly all members believed conditions had been met for liftoff in December, though some noted it was a “close call.” Inflation was a major point of discussion. Overll, the FOMC was “reasonably confident” that the 2% goal would be achieved, though some saw “considerable” risk that price pressures would not build due to the stronger dollar and soft oil prices. Expectations for a gradual policy path was also the general outlook, and there were several reasons for the cautious approach, including maintaining an accommodative stance and the uncertain outlook over inflation. It would also allow policymakers time to assess the economy’s reaction to tightening. But, there were also statements that policy would be be data dependent. There was no clear indication over the likelihood of another hike in March. However, more weak economic reports like the ones so far this year, and increased uncertainty over the inflation trajectory (the worry of several Fed officials), could leave rates on hold.

Main Macro Events Today

• European Unemployment Rate: no change is expected in the European unemployment rate. It is expected to stay at 10.7%.
• BoC Governor Poloz Speech: markets are focusing on the Governor Poloz speech in order to see if the Fed’s rate in December and the continued downfall in the price of crude oil impacts the BoC rate decisions.
• US Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to rise 190k in December vs 217k.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

European stock markets are heading lower again at the start of the European trading day, following on from losses on most Asian markets outside of China which managed to move higher as officials weakened the Yuan. China’s CAIXIN Services PMI fell to 17-month low of 50.2 in December. The data clearly adds to concerns about the health of the world’s second largest economy.

The EUR continues to weaken after Eurozone National PMIs mixed, with the German services reading revised up to 56.0 from 55.4 reported initially and versus 55.6 in November. The Italian reading, released for the first time, also came in higher than expected and jumped to 55.3 from 53.4. The French reading meanwhile was revised down to 49.8 from 50.0, which means the sector is back in contraction territory. The Spanish services PMI also came in much weaker than anticipated and fell to 55.1 from 56.7, although this is still a very high reading, indicating ongoing robust growth.

Crude Oil trades lower near $35.50 at the time of writing, after ranging between $37.10 and $36.46 overnight. Monday’s rally to near one month highs near $38.40 was short-lived, and since then has traded lower by the ongoing story of global oversupply.

The JPY has been over preforming against the majors, with USDJPY trading to fresh near three-month lows and EURJPY extending deeper into near eight-month low territory.

The commodity currencies (AUD and CAD) continue to underperform, with most commodities and stock markets in Asia mostly trading lower.

Main Macro Events Today

• USD U.S. Trade Deficit: November trade data is out today and should reveal a $43.3 bln (median -$44.2 bln) deficit for the month which would represent a narrowing over the $43.9 bln deficit reported in October. Analyst expect exports and imports to both decline by 1.1% for the month compared to respective October figures which showed a 1.4% decline for exports and a 0.6% decline for imports.

• USD U.S. Factory Goods: November factory goods data is out today and should show orders unchanged (median -0.2%) with inventories down 0.2% and sales up 0.5% for the month. This would follow respective October figures of 1.4% for orders, -0.1% for inventories and -0.6% for shipments. The durable goods data for the month had orders unchanged, inventories down 0.3% and sales up 0.9%. Data in line with forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.35 for a fourth month.

• USD U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM: The December service sector ISM is out later today and should tick up to 56.0 (median 56.0) from 55.9 in November. The December ISM declined to 48.2 from 48.6 but strength in component data from other measures of sentiment have led us to expect an improvement in December with the broad ISM adjusted average climbing to 51 after holding at 50 since September.

• USD FOMC Minutes: The December meeting minutes will be scrutinized for clues on the rate trajectory, even though officials have said increases will be gradual, but also data dependent. The initial liftoff, however, seemed to be more of a case that rates have been too low for too long, and not an overheating economy or rising prices. Meanwhile, the Fed’s dot-plot suggest there will be 4 increases this year.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

The dollar was mostly higher with a bit of a safe-haven money flowing into the USD as geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in China’s economic expansion on Monday, contributed to the 7% sell off in Asian stock markets at the start of the new year. The global stock market sell-off spill over into the European and the U.S. stock markets with U.S, markets preforming better than European equities. However, in overnight Tuesday trading, Chinese stocks traded back from session lows, after the Shanghai Comp tumbled over 3% at the open before reversing back into the green, as officials came in to inject cash into the banking system via a $20 bln open market reverse repo operation to ensure liquidity while also reportedly intervening to support the yuan.

Yesterday, The EURUSD fell to one-month lows near 1.0780 before buyers moved in to support prices; the USDJPY broke below the 118 handle before rallying to 119.70. Meanwhile, the GBP touched close to multi-month lows of 1.4660, and the USDCAD pulled back early on higher oil prices, however, the USDCAD rallied back over 1.3980 when crude Oil prices failed to retain gains.

Monday U.S. data was not uplifting, as both manufacturing ISM and construction spending both missed expectations. The U.S. calendar is thin today, featuring December auto sales and weekly chain store data. The Canadian calendar has industrial product price index for November while the European calendar has U.K. Construction PMI, Italy HICP, Spain unemployment.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German Unemployment: Yesterday’s PMI readings confirmed that growth is broadening and the improvement is also helping the labor market across the Eurozone and analyst are looking for a fresh decline in German jobless numbers of 5K (median -8K), which should leave the December jobless rate steady at a very low 6.3%.

• EUR Preliminary December Inflation: Preliminary December inflation numbers for Italy and the Eurozone. The Spanish reading last week came in higher than expected, while the German HICP, released yesterday, unexpectedly fell.

• GBP PMI Construction: Analyst forecast a 56.0 reading up from the previous 55.3.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

Lower oil prices weighed moderately on North American equity markets with the Dow Jones ending lower -0.66%, and the USD traded relatively steady. Today, the last trading day of the year should bring more of the same, as Japan is on holiday, and the economic calendar is almost nonexistent. The overnight Asian session traded in a narrow range, leaving the USDJPY in a holding pattern.

In Europe, the DAX is heading for a year end level that is still far off the highs seen earlier in the year but nevertheless markedly higher than at the start of the year. Thin holiday trade exaggerated moves, and Germany, Italy, Scandinavia and Switzerland will remain closed for the New Year’s Eve and tomorrow, while other European markets close early.

Eurozone M3 money supply growth decelerated to 5.1% y/y in November from 5.3% y/y in October, in line with Analyst forecast. The growth rate of loans to households rose to 1.4% y/y from 1.2% y/y and loans to non-financial corporations rose 0.9% y/y. Annual money supply growth remains high and lending slowly picks up as credit conditions improve. Much of the remaining weakness in lending to companies is also due to a lack of demand, as most remain happy to fulfill current orders with existing capacity.

Crude Oil fell to $36.40 session lows following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.6 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 2.0 mln bbl decrease. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen up 0.5 mln bbls actually rose 900k bbls, while distillate stocks were up 1.8 mln bbls, versus expectations for a 1.0 mln bbl rise. Refinery usage rose to 92.6% from 91.3%. Overall, a bearish report.

Gold took a bit of a tumble, with sellers apparently stepping in on the move under $1,065 , which had provided support over the past two sessions. The contract had peaked at $1,072.20 overnight, and is currently trading near $1,063.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: No Comment.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of December 26 are out today and should reveal an increase to 275k (median 270k) from 267k last week and 272k in the week prior. Claims have continued to show restraint through the holiday season despite an increase in volatility and December looks poised to leave a monthly average of 272k, only slightly higher than the 270k in average in November but up from the 263k average for October.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

Today’s trading session will be quiet, as Japanese markets are closed to celebrate the Emperor’s Birthday. We may see some activity around the CAD later today upon the release of the Canadian Core Retail Sales and GDP data. In over night trading, Asian equity markets closed the session mostly higher, while U.S. stocks charged higher posting gains of nearly 1% for the session.

The major USD currency pairs continued to lack direction without any market catalyst on tab to jolt the USD in any meaningful direction. EURUSD remains in a tight range within the 1.09s after marking a one week high near 1.0980′s yesterday. USDJPY also appears to be in a narrowly range around 121.00 for a third day, with the sharp volatility seen in the wake of last Friday’s BoJ policy fading away.

Industrial metals and oil prices have been moving higher, as investors’ confidence about the growth prospects in the U.S. and China increases.

Main Macro Events Today

• JPY Japan : Bank Holiday

• GBP United Kingdom Final GDP: Q3 expected to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y

• CAD Core Retail Sales: Analyst expect retail sales values, due later today, to improve 0.8% in October (median 0.6%) following the 0.5% drop in September. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to gain 0.5% m/m in October (median +0.5%) after the 0.5% pull-back in September. Gasoline prices fell 2.0% m/m in October, a comparatively modest pull-back compared to the 7.9% plunge in September according to the CPI. Hence, we should see an only modest drag from gas station sales on total and ex-autos sales. Moreover, gasoline prices remain very low relative to a year ago, which could continue to underpin spending along with low interest rates. Vehicle sales were firm through November, which should be supportive of total sales in both October and November.

• CAD October GDP: Analyst expect GDP, due Wednesday, to rise 0.2% in October (median +0.3%) after the 0.5% plunge in September. The projection is driven by an expected boost from the return to production of an oil sands producer that was off-line due to fire in September. That boost is seen offsetting drags from manufacturing, wholesale and housing. But the expected boost from the oil sand producer could be tempered by temporary closures at other refineries (notably Irving Oil in St. John).

• U.S. Durable Goods: November durable goods data is out Wednesday and should reveal a 1.5% (median -0.7%) decline in orders for the month with inventories and sales both remaining unchanged in November. This follows respective October figures of 2.9% for orders with shipments down 1.0% and inventories down 0.3%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.65 from October.

• U.S. Personal Income: November personal income is out Wednesday and analyst expect a 0.3% (median 0.2%) increase in headline income with consumption up 0.3% (median 0.3%) as well. This would follow October figures of 0.4% for income and 0.1% for consumption which prompted a bounce in the savings rate to 5.6% from 5.3% in September. For price data analyst expect the PCE Chain Price Index to remain unchanged with the core up 0.2%, matching the November CPI figures.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

German and U.K. GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved with the EURUSD seeing a minor rally from lows under 1.0850 to near 1.0940 in Monday’s trade. However, price still remains below the 10 day moving average. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD price trades just above the 1.4880 support level at the time of writing.

Crude oil prices remain fragile in the face of unrelenting supply; USOil price is trading higher today with prices just under $36 at the time of writing, the lower USD this morning has supported oil prices.

Gold has been moving higher as a softer U.S. dollar activated short covering. Global stock markets are mixed with strong gains in the U.S., Japan’s Nikkei 225 closing slightly lower, while European stock exchanges closing lower by 1%+. Asian stock markets have closed mostly higher, as U.S. and U.K. stock futures did. This points to gains on European markets at the open after the Monday European market sell off, as the traditional Christmas rally continues.

The U.S. calendar data reports today aren’t likely to have much impact, as attention turns to Christmas and the New Year holidays.

Main Macro Events Today

• U.S. Richmond Manufacturing Index: Analyst expect an improvement to 0.0 from -3.0 in November. The Empire State and Philly Fed are already out and showed mixed headline performance which would indicate another month of depressed sentiment.

• USD Final GDP: Analyst expect Q3 GDP to be revised down to 1.8% from 2.1% in the final report, following 3.9% growth in Q2. Forecast risk: downward, given the huge inventory boost that is being unwound with data revisions. Market risk: downward, as weakness may delay Fed tightening assumptions for 2016.Inventories are expected to be revised down by $10 bln.

• USD Housing Price Index: Analyst expect existing home sales to rise 0.7% to a 5.400 mln unit rate in November following the 3.4% October decrease to 5.360 mln units. Forecast risk: downward, as NAHB declined in November. Market risk: downward, as a run of weaker data could impact rate hike time lines. The pending home sales index should grow by 0.3%.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.