FX News Today

The big news in overnight trade revolves around the Bank of Japan. In a sign of some serious desperation, the BoJ has announced that it will start buying more Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) and extend the duration of the bonds it buys in its QQE program. The central bank also noted that it will start accepting foreign currency bonds and housing mortgage loans as collateral. The announcement sparked volatility in Japanese markets; before the BoJ announcement the Nikkei 225 was trading lower, however rallied higher on the news to end strongly up 2.7%. At the same time, the USDJPY spiked to around 100 pips to a 123.55 peak before tumbling to a 121.70 low.

European data calendar is pretty empty today; on tap we have the Eurozone current account. The EURUSD fell close to the two week lows of 1.0802, falling from session highs of 1.0913.

The excitement of the Fed rate hike has been absorbed, and the USD is now trading modestly lower against most other currencies, however, remains stronger for the week.

U.S. equities closed the session near lows after the earlier drop with the price of crude oil.

Later today watch for some price action around the CAD upon the release of the Canadian Core CPI.

Main Macro Events Today

• JPY Monetary Policy Statement: The Bank of Japan kept its Monetary Base on hold; however a new program was announced which will see the BoJ purchasing additional ETF’s.

• CAD Canada Wholesale: Analyst expect wholesale shipments, due today, to rise 0.5% in October (median after the 0.1% dip in September. This report is typically overlooked, but an as expected bounce would be supportive of a rebound in October GDP. Analyst expect GDP to rise 0.2% in October after the 0.5% plunge in September.

• Canada CPI: CPI, due today, is expected to expand at a 1.4% y/y pace in November (median +1.5%), accelerating from the 1.0% rates in September and August. CPI is seen flat on a month comparable basis in November (median +0.1%) after rising 0.1% in October. Gas prices fell 1.5% in November compared to October, which is expected to weigh on month comparable CPI. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen falling 0.1% m/m in November after the 0.2% and 0.3% gains seen in August, September and October. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate in November (median +2.3%) following the 2.1% growth clips in August, September and October. The expected core CPI figure would, of course, leave the measure above the BoC’s 2.0% midpoint. However, Governor Poloz has maintained that run-up is transitory and not reflective of a tightening in supply conditions. Hence, the November report will not threaten the Bank’s dovishly constructive tone or the view that ongoing accommodative policy is required to bring the economy back to full capacity growth.

• USD FOMC Member Lacker Speaks.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 12.17.2015

FX News Today

The USD is trading stronger across the board after the U.S. Fed’s 25 basis point rate hike, Janet Yellen said the Fed’s rate hike is a sign that the economy is on the path of sustainable improvement.

Global stock markets are trading higher, the S&P 500 closed 1.5% , while in Asia Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up with a gain of 1.6%, at the time of writing EU markets are all trading higher.

Commodity prices are mostly weaker after the U.S. Fed opened the door for future rate hikes. WTI Crude Oil is down around 1.15%, while Gold is trading nearly 1% lower on the day at the time of writing.

The Norwegian central bank left the key deposit rate steady at 0.75%, but said rate may be reduced in the first half of next year.

Draghi is keeping the door open for additional easing, the ECB is ready to use all tools if necessary, the editorial of the European central bank’s Economic Bulletin brought few surprises and was once again a close repeat of Draghi’s central message from the last press conference. It said the “governing council will closely monitor the evolution in the outlook for price stability and, if warranted is willing and able to act by using all the instruments available within its mandate in order to maintain an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation”.

The Chinese Yuan weakens for 10 day’s in a row, this has helped support local stocks , as the weaker currency will underpin exports. The People’s Bank of China is likely to continue its effort to stabilize the Yuan against a basket of currencies and will look for a gradual depreciation against the USD, after the Fed’s move. Exports remain weak and fell for a fifth months in November as global demand remains tepid. As China remains on course for ongoing monetary accommodation, while the Fed has started the tightening cycle, the differences in policy stances will underpin further Yuan weakness.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German Info Business Climate: The German Ifo business climate disappointed, with the headline reading unexpectedly falling to 108.7 against expectations for a steady reading of 109.0. The breakdown showed that the dip was due to a decline in the current conditions indicator, which fell to 112.8 from 113.4. The more forward looking expectations index remained steady at 104.7, after rising in the previous three months. The diffusion index, which gives the balance of positive and negative answers, fell back to 10.4 from 10.9 as confidence in the construction industry declined in tandem with whole sale and retail confidence. Still optimists continue to outnumber pessimists in all sectors and the stable expectations reading means the number is not as negative as the headline reading suggests, especially as numbers remain at high levels.

• GBP U.K. November retail sales: reported much stronger than expected, with sales up 1.7% m/m, against analyst median forecast for a rise of 0.6% m/m. The annual rate jumped to 5.0% y/y and October data were revised higher to 4.2% y/y from 3.8% y/y reported initially. More signs that the U.K. recovery remains on track, which will keep the implicit tightening bias at the BoE in place, although the bank clearly is in no rush to follow the Fed, as wage growth and inflation remains low.

• USD U.S. Current Account: Current account data for Q3 is out Today and should show a headline decrease to -$122 bln (median -$120 bln) from $109.7 bln in Q2 and -$118.3 bln in Q1. As a percentage of GDP this would represent a -2.7% figure which compares to -2.4% in Q3 and -2.7% in Q1. The Q3 trade deficit was -$9.6 bln from a $6.6 bln surplus in Q2.

• USD U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index: December Philly Fed is out today and should have the headline rising to 3.0 (median 1.5) from 1.9 in November. The already released December Empire State Index posted an increase to -4.6 from -10.7. More broadly, analyst expect producer sentiment to trend sideways in December with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures remaining steady at 50 for a fourth month since first reaching that figure in September.

• USD U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of December 12 are out Thursday and should reveal a decline to 280k (median 273k) from 282k in the week of December 5 and 269k in the week before that. Claims are continuing to strike firm levels and analyst expect December data to extend the 270k average set by the headline in November. Accompanying this, analyst expect to see a 200k non-farm payroll headline in December that just slightly undershoots the 211k headline from November.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

Today’s main event is the long awaited U.S. Interest Rate Decision. My view is that the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates today. I believe that the Fed understands that if they fail to hike today, the U.S. Fed’s credibility will most certainly be challenged. Let’s not forget that the U.S. Fed has been holding the markets hostage for many months, thereby creating a large amount of uncertainty in the markets with constant talk about the pending interest rate adjustment higher, only to disappoint the markets with no action during the previous meetings. Today’s “potential” rate hike will open the door, in my opinion, for further rate hikes over the coming year. Most professional traders are very aware of this fact and have already been adjusting positions accordingly.

In overnight stock market trading and ahead of today’s important U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision, global stock markets surged higher, with solid gains in Asian, Europe and Wall Street yesterday. The “pending” increase in U.S. Dollar borrowing cost is viewed by the stock markets as a net positive that the economy is healthy and that growth will continue to follow despite the higher cost of borrowing.

So far today, the USD has consolidated yesterday’s gains, after core CPI data out of the U.S. provided a final conformation of market expectations for the Fed to deliver a long-awaited rate hike later today.

The general market mode for today, I would see it as swinging between “risk-on” and “risk-off” as traders jockey for positions, with high volatility especially during the U.S. FOMC Press Conference scheduled for later tonight at 7:30PM GMT. The heavy price action will be around the FOMC Economic Projections, the FOMC Statement followed by the FOMC Press Conference. Traders will have a long night of trading with plenty of action expected. I wish you all good luck on this historic trading day!

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR CPI data: the final reading of CPI data for November, which should confirm the headline rate at 0.1% y/y (med same) and core inflation at 0.9% y/y. The decline in oil prices remains the main factor weighing on CPI, although core inflation also eased slightly last month, as the drop in basic goods prices is feeding through the production chain. Still, the ECB already reacted to this by easing policy further and ECB’s Coeure said deflation risks are off the table now with the latest set of measures, so the numbers won’t change the policy outlook.

• USD U.S. Industrial Production: November industrial production is out on today and should reveal a 0.2% (median -0.2%) decline which would mark the third strait month of 0.2% drops. Despite the firm November employment report there is some downside risk to industrial production as factory employment declined by 1k and mining employment was down by 11k for the month. We expect capacity utilization at 77.3% (median 77.4%) from 77.5% in October.

• USD U.S. Housing Starts: November housing starts are out today and analyst expect a 1,130k (median 1,133k) headline following a 1,060k headline in October which marked an 11.0% decline from September. Analyst expect permits at 1,150k from 1,161k and completions should rise to 1,000k from 965k in October. The warmer weather through November should lend some upside risk to the release despite the slow down in the already released November NAHB which declined to 62 from 65 in October.

• USD Interest Rate Decision: FOMC made two key changes in the policy statement that put a Fed hike on the table for today, even as it left rates unchanged in October. Fed removed the comment from the September statement that “recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat” and replaced it with “monitoring” developments. Also said “in determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting” Those two changes reversed the dovishness from the September meeting and ostensibly reduced the concerns over the slowdown in China that Chair Yellen mentioned in her presser Statement somewhat at odds with slowing in recent data, however, but acknowledged job gains had slowed while unemployment rate held steady Inflation continues to run the below the Committee’s long run target.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

The European calendar today will focus on German ZEW investor confidence and U.K. inflation data for November; USD traders will keep on eye on the CPI numbers, while the CAD could see some price action as the BoC Governor Poloz will make a speech later in the evening.

The USD is under some selling pressure ahead of today’s CPI numbers, and the EUR continues its charge higher, however, market volatility should prevail in the up-coming trading days as we move closer to the end of year FOMC highlight meeting on Wednesday. This meeting will set the trading stage for the future of the USD interest rate expectations.

U.S. stock markets finished up +103 points at the start of the week while stock markets in Asia stock ended mostly down; Japan’s Nikkei dropped by more than 1.6%. Oil prices are pulling back slightly after yesterday’s price rally, U.S. Oil is currently trading above the USD 36 per barrel mark in risk on trading.

The theme for the remainder of the week is an increase in market volatility ahead of the Fed rate decision tomorrow, however, its expected for markets to absorb the expected rate hike with ease since this event has had plenty of time to price in. Traders should never the less remain on alert as market’s surprises can never be ruled out.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German ZEW: ZEW Investor confidence is seen rising slightly to 11.2 (med 17.3) from 10.4 in the previous month, although analyst view the risk is to the downside as the ongoing sell off in commodities has been weighing on stock markets and investor confidence. The prospect of a Fed rate hike meanwhile has been pretty much absorbed by the markets.

• U.K. GBP CPI: We expect inflation to tick higher, forecasting the headline CPI rate to lift to 0.1% y/y (median same) from-0.1%, and the core CPI rate to rise to 1.2% (median same) from 1.1%. As the BoE has been foretelling, inflation will start to pick up as the impact of oil-driven price declines from a year ago start to drop out of y/y comparisons. The BoE is forecasting CPI to pick up through 2016, though only moderately, expecting that it will remain below 1.0% into the second half of the year.

• USD Consumer Price Index: November CPI is out today and should reveal a 0.1% (median unchanged) headline with a 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. This follows October figures of 0.2% for both the headline and the core. Energy prices have kept inflation measures depressed recently and analyst expect that trend to continue in this release with an anticipated 2% gasoline price decline.

• USD Empire State Manufacturing Index: The December Empire State Index is out today to kick off the month’s producer sentiment data. Analyst expect an increase to -8.0 (median -6.0) from -10.7 last month. Sentiment measures have been trending sidewards over the course of the fall with the ISM-adjusted average of all reports holding at 50 since September.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

German Nov HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.3% y/y, as expected. The national rate was steady at 0.4% y/y and the CPI rate excluding energy fell back marginally to 1.3% y/y from 1.4% y/y. The sharp difference between headline inflation and the ex-energy figure highlights, however, once again that lower energy prices are the main driven behind the weak numbers, which also means the risk of a real deflationary spiral is limited.

Both BoE and SNB left policy unchanged at yesterday’s council meeting, as expected. The BoE is still eying a rate hike, but is clearly in no hurry, and if anything the statement was a tad more dovish than the November inflation report. The SNB meanwhile remains ready to intervene on currency markets if necessary. The BoE minutes, released at the same time, showed an 8-1 majority in favour of steady policy, with McCafferty continuing his dissent in favour of a rate hike. The vote to maintain the stock of purchased assets at GBP 375 bln was taken unanimously, as in the last meeting. The BoE’s November inflation report was already a tad more dovish and the MPC said today that the risks to the view back then that “if Bank Rate were to follow the gently rising path implied by the prevailing market yields then inflation would exceed slightly the 2% target in two years and then rise further above it”, lie a little to the downside in the first two years. This means under the implied gentle tightening path inflation may no longer exceed target in two years’ time, but not necessarily that it won’t reach the target.

US reports revealed the expected big trade price hits from commodity prices in November before likely bigger declines in December, with broad-based price drops beyond commodities, and particular weakness in export prices. We also saw a 13k initial claims rise to 282k in the first week of December that extended the 9k bounce to 269k in the Thanksgiving week of November. The sharp 22k two-week climb for claims raises the stakes for next week’s report, though for now the rise can be attributed to holiday volatility. We still expect a 200k December payroll rise that undershoots big recent gains of 211k in November and 298k i n October as well as the 210k average year-to-date gain for 2015, but that beats the 174k Q3 average monthly gain.

 

Main Macro Events Today

• US Retail Sales: November retail sales are out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline with a 0.3% (median 0.3%) increase ex-autos. This follows October figures of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Despite the firm auto sales data for November, retail sales are facing headwinds from the decline in gasoline prices and a drop in construction hours worked as we discussed in Monday’s commentary.

• US PPI: November PPI should reveal a 0.1% (median unchanged) headline with a 0.1% (median 0.1%) increase for the core. This should bring the y/y figure to -1.2% from -1.6% in October which set a new recent low. Declines in oil prices over the past year have acted to hold down most inflation measures.

• US Business Inventories: October business inventories should come in unchanged (median 0.1%) headline for inventories with shipments for the month down 0.2%. This follows respective September figures of 0.3% for inventories and unchanged for September. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio at 1.38, steady from September.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates to 2.50% from 2.75%. The rate cut was widely anticipated. The reduction in the official cash rate as “monetary policy need to be accommodative to help ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range,” Governor Wheeler said. He expects this can be accomplished at the current rate setting, but assured the bank will reduce rates further if needed. On the exchange rate, he said the recent rise in the value of the New Zealand dollar has been “unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate in order to support sustainable growth.”

Japan’s PPI improved to a 3.6% y/y rate of decline in November from -3.8% in October. Granted, that is still troublesome for the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy, but at least the rate of decline did not worsen. The PPI fell 0.1% m/m in November after the 0.6% plunge in November.

Australia employment surged 71.4k in November after the revised 56.1k gain in October (was +58.6k). The hefty gain in November, which was the largest one month gain since July of 2000, contrasted with expectations for a modest dip following the sizable rise in October. Full time jobs grew 41.6k in November after the 38.4k rise in October (was +40.0k). Part time jobs rose 29.7k after a 17.7k gain (was +18.6k). The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in November from 5.9% while the participation rate rose to 65.3% in November from 65.0%. Two consecutive months of stellar job growth confirms that the RBA’s stimulus efforts are working. Moreover, it trims prospects for further cuts from the RBA next year. We see no change for an extended period. AUD-USD shot higher to the 0.7300 area from 0.7250 ahead of the report.

 

Main Macro Events Today

• SNB Rate Decision: The SNB was in luck and Draghi didn’t quite deliver the bazooka markets had been hoping for, which meant market reaction didn’t go quite according to plan and this gives the SNB some time to watch how things develop. That doesn’t mean, there couldn’t be further easing outside a policy setting meeting if there is fresh upward pressure on the currency. 

• BoE Rate Decision: No change is expected in the Bank of England’s 0.5% rate policy.

• Canada Capacity Utilization: We expect the capacity use rate, due Thursday, to recover to 82.0% in Q3 (median 82.1%) from 81.3% in Q2. The anticipated improvement tracks the 2.3% rebound in Q3 GDP after the 0.3% drop in Q2 and the 0.7% pull-back in Q1.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Initial claims data for the week of December 5 are out today and should show claims at 268k (median 267k) for the week, down from 269k in the week prior but above the 260k reading before that. Despite improvements in claims data we tend to see increased volatility around the holiday season which accounts for some of the increase in the November average to 269k. We expect a December average of 266k which compares to our forecast for nonfarm payrolls of 190k for the month.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

German trade surplus continues to widen.Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 20.7 bln in October, up from EUR 19.2 bln in the previous month, as exports declined 1.2% m/m, which was counterbalanced by a 3.4% m/m drop in imports. Import numbers have been very volatile and as this is nominal data also driven by exchange rate and especially oil price developments. Unadjusted data show a trade surplus of EUR 208.8 bln in the first 10 months of hteyear, up from EUR 177.8 bln in the corresponding period 2014. The current account surplus widened to EUR 199.5 bln in the January to October period from EUR 168.8 bln last year. So Germany is likely to remain under attack for its widening trade surplus, despite the fact that for once overall growth is actually driven largely by consumption and domestic demand.

China’s CPI grew at a 1.5% y/y pace in November, slightly better than expected following the 1.3% y/y clip in October. The annual CPI growth rate had been slowing since seeing a year high 2.0% y/y rate in August (September was +1.6% y/y), and the pick-up in November suggests government stimulus efforts may have provided some lift to demand. The PPI fell 5.9% y/y in November, matching the rate of decline in October. China’s stocks are unchanged, while the Nikkei is down 1.1% and the Hang Seng is off 0.7%.

BoC Poloz downplayed the September GDP plunge, noting that it was driven by special factors. Notably, there was a fire in the oil sands that shut-down some production. That production was back on line in October, he noted. As for Q3, he reminded that the Bank projected it would be “puffed-up” by special factors, notably the child tax credit. Moreover, the weak hand-off to Q4 was also anticipated. They will review the Q4 projection for the January MPR. He reminded that “data do not go in a straight line.” These comments were consistent with his ongoing view that the economy is evolving roughly as they expected in October. In a separate answer, he counseled patience, saying that only half the impact of the policy action this year has been seen. Poloz shot down drawing any conclusion for the discussion of unconventional policy in today’s prepared remarks. “There is no need to contemplate these measures,” he said. He said all the ingredients for Canada’s recovery are in place. “We are not talking about doing that (lowering rates to the lower bound), we are making sure our tool kit is up to date,” he said. He said the bank would use unconventional again in the case of a major shock, such as was seen in 2008. On the growth trajectory, he added that “like we said last week and in October, the pieces are coming together.”

US JOLTS job openings fell 151k in October to 5,383k, following September’s 157k rebound (revised from 149k). That caused the rate to dip to 3.6% from 3.7%. Hiring rose 57k to 5,137k after declining 1k previously (revised from -32k). The rate was unchanged at 3.6% (September was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 52k in September after falling 44k previously (revised from -51k). The quit rate was steady at 1.9%. The data are on the old side and won’t impact the FOMC, especially as the November jobs data revealed a solid round of numbers.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Wholesale Trade: October wholesale trade data is out today and should show sales up 0.5% (median 0.3%) following a 0.8% drop in August. Inventories should be down 0.1% following a 0.5% addition in September. Data in line with these forecasts would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.31 for a third month from August.

• RBNZ rate decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the official cash rate today to 2.5% from 2.75% after the governor Wheeler repeated his comment that “some further easing in the OCR seemes likely”. However, as mentioned this is not the first time the governor says this.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

Asian stock markets are sharply down and Australian bonds posted the sharpest gains since July, as China’s exports fell for a fifth month and a sharper than expected decline in foreign exchange reserves fuelled fears about the health of the Chinese economy. Oil prices are little changed and close to the lowest level since 2009. U.S. stock futures are also lower, but U.K. stock futures are managing slight gains. Eurozone markets stabilized yesterday, with yields coming off and the DAX bouncing back from the sharp losses seen in the wake of last week’s ECB meeting. Released overnight, U.K. BRC retail sales came in much weaker than expected and should support bond futures. The calendar also has U.K. production and the final reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP.

China’s Exports fell 6.8% y/y in November, while the analysts expected for 5.0% contraction. Trade surplus narrowed to $54.1 bln in November,contrary to expectations for an increase relative to the $61.6 bln surplus in October. Exports fell 6.8% y/y in November after the 6.9% drop in October. Imports contracted at a 8.7% y/y clip in November following the 18.8% pull-back in October. The report confirms the ongoing challenges for China’s trade outlook. China’s equities are lower, with the Shanghai Composite down 1.5%. The Nikkei is down 1.0%, while the Hang Seng is off 1.7%, as Asia’s stock markets key off the declines in the US

Japan’s real GDP was revised to a 1.0% gain in Q3 (q/q, saar) from the previous 0.8% drop. An upward revision was expected, but to a very modest gain. Hence, Japan’s economy did not fall into recession after all, with contraction confined to the revised 0.5% drop in Q2 (was -0.7%). Capital spending was revised to a 0.6% gain in Q3 from the initial 1.3% drop. The improvement in Q3 growth, notably the gain in capital spending, trims the chance that the BoJ will implement further stimulus early next year. The yen is little changed, with USD-JPY holding in the 123.3 region.

US consumer credit rose $16.0 bln in Octoberafter surging $28.6 bln in September (revised from $28.9 bln), with the August increase nudged down to $14.6 bln from $16.0 bln. Non-revolving credit continued to lead the strength, rising $15.8 bln versus the $21.9 bln jump previously (revised from $22.2 bln). Revolving credit was up $0.2 bln versus September’s $6.7 bln gain.

 

Main Macro Events Today

• EU GDP: The final reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP is out today and should confirm growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.6% y/y, with the breakdown expected to show that growth remains driven by consumption and domestic demand.
• Canada Housing Permits: are released today and are seen dipping 1.0% in October after the 6.7% tumble in September and 3.6% pull-back in August.
• BoC Governor: The Bank Of Canada governor Poloz will be speaking today on “The Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policy. The most recent policy announcement remained cautiously optimistic regarding the expected recovery in growth and acceleration in underlying inflation through 2017.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

FX News Today

Yesterday was a historic trading day for EUR traders in the wake of the ECB’s and Mario Draghi’s surprise move that disappointed the EUR short sellers in the market, after the ECB cut the deposit rate by just 10 basis points when the market had priced in at least a 20 basis point cut. High EURUSD price action after the disappointing announcement likely blew up short sellers as the pair surged higher by 450+ pips on the day.

EURUSD short sellers will be further tested today as today’s U.S. jobs report could offer some more surprises. A stronger NFP number could flip some of EURUSD recent gains, however on the other side of the trade, if we see a big NFP drop off, we could quickly see a EURUSD pop the late October’s levels near 1. 1100.

The EUR gets a bit of further support today as the German manufacturing orders at the start of the session came in much higher than anticipated at 1.8% m/m and September data were revised sharply higher.

Fed Chair Yellen finished her JEC testimony on policy without adding anything new. She repeated several times that the economy is growing and the labor market is near full employment. Liftoff went on to say, also doesn’t mean the FOMC is embarking on a pre-determined course, and added, the trajectory will be gradual. So it looks as though it’s all systems go for a small hike.

Asian stock markets are down across the board, following on from heavy losses in the U.S. and especially the Eurozone, as Draghi’s package of easing measures fell short of expectations.

The weaker USD drove up oil prices though short covering ahead of today’s OPEC meeting has been viewed as the culprit. A lack of agreement on production cuts from the Vienna meeting, will see the global supply glut picture come back to center stage and further oil price losses may be expected.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German Manufacturing Orders: Surged 1.8% m/m, a much stronger rebound than expected and with the September number revised up sharply to -0.7% m/m from -1.7% m/m, the numbers tie in with the better than expected confidence readings this month. Still, this was the first improvement since June, and the three months trend rate still dropped to -2.9% from -2.7% in the three months to September. The German recovery may for once be driven by consumption, rather than exports and manufacturing, but still, these are weak numbers that suggest a slowdown in activity at the start of next year.

• German construction PMI: Jumped to 52.5 from 51.8 in the previous month. More signs that the construction sector is picking up as low interest rates fuel demand for property investment and the refugee crisis will mean additional demand for housing. Something then to counterbalance the weak manufacturing sector, which is facing a drop in demand.

• USD NFP: November nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200k, with a 190k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as lean claims readings should provide some tail wind. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could put a December rate hike on hold. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady from 5.0%. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.5 from September. Hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.1% which would leave a 2.2% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be up 0.1% for the month following a 0.3% increase last month.

• USD Trade Deficit: The October trade deficit is expected to hold steady from -$40.8 bln in September. Exports in October are expected to fall 1.6% while imports show a 1.3% decrease on the month. Forecast risk: downward, if October service trade captures some of the goods-trade weakness. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data would push back rate hike assumptions. The trade deficit has failed to narrow significantly in 2015 despite a sharp price-led drop in petroleum imports, thanks to weakening foreign demand and a strong dollar.

• CAD Unemployment: Employment is expected to fall 10.0k in November after the 44.4k surge in October. Forecast Risk: Canada’s job surge in October was driven by a 32.0k surge in public administration payrolls that was largely due to temporary work associated with the federal election. A pull-back seems in the cards as those temporary workers are let go with the conclusion of the election. But education payrolls could provide a boost, having declined 3.6k in October on top of the 51.3k plunge in September that was the largest on record. Hence, the risk is mixed given the divergent risks associated with public admin and education.

• CAD IVEY PMI: Canada’s Ivey PMI is expected to rise to 54.0 in November from 53.1 in October on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today.

The U.S. ADP employment data came in better than expected, we also saw an uptick in Q3 productivity and unit labor costs; the data gave some support for the USD on Wednesday. The U.S. Fed chair Yellen appeared to put in place the foundations for a December rate within the next two weeks hike during her speech yesterday. For the time being, the market will remain “data-dependent” with all eyes now on the jobs report due out tomorrow. Unless the jobs report is a complete disappointment, markets will continue to adjust for a rate hike.

European markets will focus on today’s ECB decision, analyst projections call for a cut in the deposit rate of at least 20 basis points, maybe even larger if there are sizeable exemptions and a widening of the pool of eligible assets under the QE program.

The EUR is under selling pressure against the USD ahead of the ECB’s policy decision; EURUSD short sellers may have been profiting-taking yesterday, however, the downtrend continues today after a short lived rebound attempt yesterday after the pair hit a new multi-month low.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Final EMU Services PMI: revised down to 54.2 from 54.6 reported previously but still up from 54.1 in October. The composite reading was also revised down to 54.2, but remained up from 53.9 in the previous month. So economic expansion still accelerated in November and all major Eurozone countries are reporting growth, although November readings were mixed, with the Spanish PMI coming in higher than expected at 56.7, up from 55.9 in the previous month. The Italian reading meanwhile was unchanged at 53.4, while the final French number was revised down to 51.0 from 51.3 and the German reading was confirmed at 55.6.

• EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision: a cut in the -0.2% deposit rate plus a tweak in the QE program is likely. The widening of pool of assets under QE would give Draghi more room to manoeuvre in the future and add weight to his promise to do everything needed to bring inflation back towards the 2% mark.

• GBP Services PMI: The U.K. has the Services PMI for November, which we expect to bounce back to 55.5 (median 55.0) from the 54.9 reading in October.

• USD Unemployment Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 269k (median 271k) in the week-ended November 28. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,244k for the week-ended November 21.

• USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The U.S. ISM-NMI is expected to fall to 57.5 from 59.1 in October. The July spike to 60.3 set a new post-recession high.

• USD Fed’s Yellen Testifies.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.