FOREX News Today

Japan and the BOJ: Japan’s PM Mr Abe has announced a meeting with the press next Wednesday June 1 the expectations are that he could announce the date of a snap election and/or if the much heralded sales tax hike will go ahead next year as planned. In parliament the BOJ’s governor Mr Kuroda repeated that they will add further stimulus if required, that deflation is still not completely behind them and that it would be desirable if the exchange rate moved in a stable manner and reflected the fundamentals. USDJPY remains unmoved just shy of 110 at 109.96.

Eurogroup agree Greek debt relief: As expected the Eurozone and IMF agreed debt relief package for Greece. “On the package of reforms Greece had committed to last summer, we now have full agreement,” said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who presided over the meeting of finance ministers. Once all 19 eurozone members have formally signed off on the new deal, Greece will get €10.3 billion ($11.48 billion) in fresh loans, which would be given out in several installments. A first slice, of €7.5 billion could come as early as June. “It is an important moment in the long Greek program,” Dijsselbloem said. The IMF warns that Greek debt, which currently stands at 180% of GDP, would shoot to 300% of GDP without debt restructuring.

US New home sales beat estimates with a 16.6% April surge to a 619k expansion-high after big Q1 boosts, just as the median price surged to a $321,100 all-time high after upward Q1 revisions, leaving a robust start to the critical spring season for the housing sector. Inventories slipped 0.4% from a six-year high in March. New home sales are poised for a new quarterly cycle-high in the 560k area in Q2, after a 532k (was 517k) cycle-high in Q1. New home sales have risen 129% from the 273k record-low in February of 2011, alongside smaller cyclical climbs of 45% for pending home sales and 58% for existing home sales from lows in 2010. We saw big cyclical climbs of 145% for housing starts and 118% for permits from lows in 2009, and 151% for new home construction from a low in 2011. We previously saw a 1.7% April existing home sales rise to a 5.45 mln pace, a 6.6% April housing starts bounce to a 1.172 mln pace, and a 3.6% April permits rise to a 1.116 mln rate.

Fedspeak A US Federal Reserve rate hike in June or July wasn’t set in stone, but labor data suggested it was time to pull the trigger, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC. “There’s no reason to prejudge June,” Bullard said, adding that the Federal Open Markets Committee would look at the data and decide then. Muddying the waters on the timing of the move, Bullard noted that there was no reason the Fed must hold a press conference in conjunction with a rate hike. A press conference is scheduled to follow the June 14-15 meeting, but one is not scheduled after the July 26-27 meeting. “We can wait until we get to the meeting, see what the latest data says, and try to make a good decision there. I think on the issue of press conferences, we have made many moves over the years without press conferences,” he said.

Main Macro Events Today

• BOC Interest rate Decision: No change in rates is expected in the announcement today, but Governor Poloz could emphasize the caution in the Bank’s cautiously optimistic outlook. Economic data has featured some high-profile disappointments since the April announcement: Exports and manufacturing shipments both fell in February and March. Investment intentions for 2016 showed an expected reduction in spending. And the oil sands production stoppage has tripped the Q2 GDP outlook into negative territory (we see real Q2 GDP falling 0.5%). But it is not all doom and gloom, as the U.S. economy is seeing enough improvement that prospects have firmed for two Fed rate hikes this year, with one possible as soon as June. And oil prices have firmed. We suspect the BoC will still view the ingredients as being present for the expected recovery. Recent data will be deemed consistent with an economy undergoing a difficult rebalancing, with Federal government stimulus seen providing a key lift later this year. We see the announcement as remaining consistent with an extended period of steady policy while they maintaining that they have the room to implement further accommodation if needed.

• German IFO:  The Ifo Business Climate reading for May should benefit from robust orders inflows and ongoing strong consumer demand, which already helped to lift the current conditions reading in the ZEW yesterday. We are looking for a rise in the overall reading to 106.8 from 106.6. However, the significant negative surprise in the ZEW headline number yesterday (it was less than half of expectations) highlights downside risks.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

RBA Governor Stevens: Very committed to inflation-targeting monetary policy, inflation very low and below the RBA’s target, inflation target is not rigid and the inflation target does not demand kneejerk responses. Inflation targeting will work well into the future and finally there is quite some years of fiscal repair work for the government in the period ahead. More Dovish tones from Governor Stevens,  AUDUSD down from overnight highs of 0.7256 to 0.7222 following his comments.

IMF “unconditional” debt relief for Greece: The conclusion of its debt sustainability analysis (it’s first one of Greece since mid last year). The 10-year Greek yield was down by 28 bp, putting yields at the lowest since last November, after the Greek parliament today passed the latest EUR 5.4 bln austerity-measures package, which will qualify it for a EUR 11 bln injection of bailout cash. This should make it a formality for Eurozone officials to sign-off on at today’s Eurogroup meeting. The IMF warns that Greek debt, which currently stands at 180% of GDP, would shoot to 300% of GDP without debt restructuring.

More Mixed US data : US Markit manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.5 in flash print for May, the lowest since September 2009. The index fell to 50.8 in April from 51.5 in March. It was 54.0 a year ago. The index hit a high of 57.9 in August 2014 and has generally been on a downward trajectory ever since. New orders declined versus April and are expanding at the slowest rate since December 2015, in large part thanks to weakness from foreign demand. But, input prices rose for a second straight month, though inflation remained moderate overall and was running at a slower overall pace than the series average. The recovery in producer sentiment from winter lows is proving more anemic than hoped, though sentiment has still increased on net since February despite May setbacks for the Empire State and Philly Fed headlines. The ISM-adjusted average of the major measures is poised to sustain the 51 April figure, following a 53 eight-month high in March, but much lower 49 averages in January and February. The employment components for both Empire State and Philly Fed increased, and we saw further gains in the Philly Fed price component as oil prices rebounded.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Williams repeated 2 to 3 rate hikes seem about right for 2016, with 3 or 4 in 2017. The timing will depend on economic data, he cautioned, adding the Fed will move slowly on removing accommodation he added. The FOMC will leave the balance sheet as it is for now. He forecasts about 2% growth for this year, though there are some headwinds from abroad, but it’s important that the Fed doesn’t overreact to financial market turmoil. He remains concerned about low inflation expectations, however. He sees encouraging signs that wages are picking up, though low wages remain a puzzle. There’s nothing new in these remarks from Williams, who is not a voter this year. Earlier, Bullard, a voter, speaking from Beijing, noted some data are supporting the FOMC’s views for rate hikes, while other reports are supporting the lesser views of the markets. There are some signs that U.S. growth is below trend, though the labor market’s performance has been very good.

Main Macro Events Today

• German Final Q1 GDP: German Q1 GDP, which is likely to confirm overall growth at 0.7% q/q. The quarterly growth rate is much stronger than initially expected, and the breakdown, which will be released for the first time, likely to confirm that overall expansion was boosted by strong consumption and domestic demand. Survey data already points to a slowdown in growth dynamics in the second quarter and the different timing of Easter this year may distort comparisons, so that the first half of the year may have to be seen as a whole.

• German May ZEW: German ZEW Economic Sentiment is seen improving to 11.4 from 11.2. Markets are starting to digest raised bets of a June Fed hike and with oil prices moving higher investor confidence seems to remain underpinned. Reduced Brexit bets may also help, but much will depend on when responses came in and there still is some risk of a negative surprise amid uncertainty as the period of ever easier monetary policies across the world is slowly coming to an end.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Data today includes the EMU current account, UK CBI industrial trends and German PPI which is expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.0%. Overnight Asian stock markets managed to stabilise in tandem with oil prices. Crude prices rose to a seven month high and the front end WTI future has broken USD 49 per barrel. Japanese stocks are heading for a second weekly gain after recovering earlier losses with a weaker Yen helping to put a floor under markets as investors weigh the impact of a June rate hike in the U.S. on the global economy. The Nikkei is currently up 0.54%, the Hang Seng 1.20%, the CSI 300 up 0.105 and the ASX up 0.44%. U.S. stock futures are also moving higher.

Japanese Sales-Tax should be delayed: So says Etsuro Honda adviser to PM Abe the comments reported by Bloomberg says the sales tax hike planned from April 2017 should be postponed until the economy is completely free from deflation also that any economic package cannot offset the impact of the sales tax hike. This is in stark contrast to a senior member of the ruling party  (mr Yamamoto who says the economy will not recover if sales tax delay is just for show. The continued uncertainty and public disagreements by people close to PM Abe leaves a rather negative impact.  USDJPY remains north of 110.00.   

Mixed US data : The US data yesterday revealed a disappointing Philly Fed downtick to -1.8 from -1.6 that accompanied Monday’s Empire State plunge to -9.02 from 9.56, alongside a restrained 16k initial claims reversal of last week’s 20k pop that left a still-elevated 278k figure. Yet, we still have an improvement in producer sentiment since the bleak readings over the six months ending in February, and a claims rise in May after lean April data that mostly reflects seasonal adjustment difficulties from the early-Easter, the New York spring break, and the Verizon strike. We also saw a welcome 0.6% April leading indicators rise, as the index rebounds with an assumed bounce in GDP growth to 2.0% in Q2 from an upwardly-revised 1.0% (was 0.5%) in Q1.

Fedspeak – Fischer (Vice Chair) nothing revealing in his speech on policy or the economy. Dudley (3^rd most significant opinion) a hike in June or July is reasonable if the data conform to his outlook, said the Fed dove, who also noted June is “definitely” a live meeting. Of course the markets got that from the FOMC minutes yesterday, and he’s pleased with that outcome. The Q1 slowing in growth was a bit of a surprise and Q2 is shaping up to see stronger growth. The strength in retail sales helped bolster his view on the Q2 rebound. He thinks the economy is growing above trend with a tighter labor market. Brexit is another variable in the policy mix, he added. He didn’t give a time frame for the next rate hike, but rather reiterated that policy is still data dependent. He did acknowledge that it is important for the markets to grasp the FOMC’s thinking. Chair Yellen has a speech scheduled for June 6^th.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Existing Home Sales: April existing home sales data is out on todayy and should reveal a 1.3% headline increase to a 5.400 mln (median 5.390 mln) pace from 5.330 mln in March and 5.070 mln in February. Housing starts for April have already been released and posted an improvement to 1.172 mln from 1.099 mln in March and the NAHB housing sentiment index managed to hold steady at 58 from March.

• Canada CPI:  We expect CPI, due today, to accelerate to a 1.9% y/y pace in April (median +1.7%) from the 1.3% y/y pace in March. CPI is seen rising 0.5% on a month comparable basis in April (median +0.4%) after the 0.6% bounce in March. Gas prices shot 9% m/m higher in April after expanding 5.7% in March. Hence, gas prices should again provide a hefty lift to month comparable CPI. Of course, the currency appreciated further, with USD-CAD 5.0% to an average 1.256 in April. With the loonie also making headway in February and March, the exchange rate is expected to restrain price growth. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen rising 0.2% m/m in April after the stunning 0.7% gain in March. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.1% y/y rate in April (median +2.1%), matching the 2.1% pace in March. The BoC was sanguine about the pick-up in total and core CPI through the end of 2015, as they continued to lean on indicators suggestive of ongoing slack to make the case that the spike in core CPI was transitory. Another month of elevated core CPI will not shake the BoC’s view on the price backdrop. Notably, inflation remains on the backburner as growth is the focus.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets are pressured after the Fed minutes seemed to back June rate hike backs, with Asian stock markets mostly lower, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures also in the red. Yields are rising as the end to ever expanding monetary policy accommodation is coming into sight and the front end WTI future has fallen back below USD 48 per barrel Bund futures already extended losses in after hour trade yesterday and are likely to remain under pressure. UK markets underperformed yesterday as reduced Brexit bets boosted Sterling, and while GBP has eased somewhat it remains above 1.46 against the USD. The European calendar today as Eurozone current account and U.K. retail sales and the CBI industrial trends survey.

FOMC minutes showed a June hike was “likely”:  If data improved as expected. Officials wanted to keep options open for June. But there was a range of views on whether the economic numbers would be adequate to support a tightening next month. Consistent with the April 27 policy statement, many officials noted global risks needed to be closely monitored, with some noting specific worries over China’s currency and Brexit. However, “many” officials continued to see downside risks to the outlook, even as “some” saw global risks as having diminished. Meanwhile, a “few” officials (the more hawkish members) were talking about an April hike. The minutes certainly do set the stage for a tightening next month, though of course data will have to cooperate. Our call for a June hike is supported by the minutes to the April 26, 27 policy meeting.

Australia Adds Jobs: More new jobs were added to the Australian economy last month with the unemployment level remaining at 30 month lows. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.7% (expectations increase to 5.8%); Employment rose 10,800 for March; Full-time jobs fell by 9,300; part-time employment rose by 20,200; Participation rate, a measure of labor force as a share of the population, dropped to 64.8%. It shows that low interest rates are helping sectors such as construction and tourism, however the fall in participation rates and the rise of part-time workers shows suggests only tepid growth.

BoJ seen expanding stimulus by July: According to the consensus view from the latest Reuters survey. 19 of the 22 respondents expect a move by July, with 7 anticipating a move in June and 12 predicting that the stimulus boost will come at the policy meeting in July, which would coincide with BoJ economic forecast updates. The three remaining respondents opted for the two-day meeting ending on Nov-1. 80% of respondents expect a combination of cutting negative rates further and upping the QQE program (two of PM Abe’s three arrows economic-revival plan), although the prevailing -0.1% rate isn’t expected to be touched until Q4. Note that the survey was conducted over the six days to yesterday, thereby missing today’s initial release of Q1 GDP data out of Japan, which smashed expectations at +1.7% q/q, well up on the median forecast for a 0.3% rise. On this, however, caveats apply. As the FT points out, first-estimate GDP data are apt for potentially big revisions in Japan. The report also highlighted that falling investment chopped 0.9 of a percentage point of GDP in Q1, which is seem largely as a consequence of the impact of yen strength on major Japanese businesses. This should maintain Japanese policymakers’ desire to weaken the yen, though don’t expect much jawboning on this until the upcoming G7 meetings have come and gone.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: May Philly Fed is out on Thursday and should reveal a headline to increase to 5.0 (median 3.0) from -1.6 in April and 12.4 in March. The already released Empire State Index for May posted a dramatic drop to -9.0 from 9.6 which could spell downside risk to the Philly Fed release. However, we expect some improvement in broad producer sentiment in May with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures ticking up to 52 from 51 last month and 53 in March.

• US Initial Jobless: Claims data for the week of May 14th are out today and should reveal a 297k (median 275k) headline following a 294k headline last week and 274k in the week prior. There is a chance that the big jump in claims last week was the result of spring break in NY public schools so there could be an unwind this week. We expect claims to average 275k in May from 259k in April and 264k in March. This would accompany an anticipated 190k nonfarm payroll headline for the month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, as stronger than expected GDP data out of Japan cast doubt over hopes of further easing and a delay to the sales tax hike, which added to US rate hike bets. FTSE 100 futures are also down. Positive leads then for European bond markets, which already moved higher yesterday, although the 10-year Bund future lost some of its gains in after hour trade. Today’s data calendar brings the final reading of Eurozone April CPI, expected to be confirmed at -0.2% y/y, and UK  labour market data. The April claimant count rate is seen steady at 2.1% and the ILO unemployment rate for March unchanged at 5.1% y/y. Earnings growth could show a slight deceleration in the rate excluding bonuses.

Japan’s GDP grew 1.7% in Q1: This following the downward revised 1.7% drop in Q4 (was -1.1%). The magnitude of the increase in Q1 easily outpaced projections (we saw +0.5%), but did follow a hefty downward revision to Q4. While the return to growth dodged a technical recession, the detail suggest underlying momentum is lacking in the economy, despite years of Abenomics and aggressive easing from the BoJ. Notably, an extra day in February due to leap year boosted consumption relative to the previous quarter. Private consumption grew 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after contracting a revised 0.8% in Q4 (was -0.9%). Business spending took a disappointing turn, falling 1.4% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after a revised 1.2% gain in Q4 (was +1.5%). The yen is steady, with USDJPY at 109.20.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Williams and Lockhart both noted June is a live meeting, in their comments at a Politico event. Both are doves, but have been noting the potential for further normalization this year, consistent with the FOMC’s projections of 2 25 bp hikes. Lockhart said it’s too early to draw conclusions about Q2 growth, but he wouldn’t take June off the table. Like several of his colleagues, he warns that the markets are more pessimistic than he is. Neither are voters this year. Fed moderate Kaplan said that the Fed should hike rates “in the not too distant future,” while he sees the household sector in good shape and forecasts a 2% rise in 2016 GDP, though still some slack in the labor force.

Main Macro Events Today

• EMU CPI: We expect the headline rate to be confirmed at -0.2% (median same). The decline back into negative territory last month was partly due to special factors with the earlier timing of Easter meaning that holiday related prices, which picked up over Easter, fell back again in April. This distorts the annual rate somewhat and goes some way to explain the swings over the March/April period. In any case, the ECB has already reacted pre-emptively with the March set of easing measures and is now firmly in wait and see mode and focused on implementing what has already been announced, so that any revision won’t change the immediate rate outlook.

• FOMC Minutes: Published at 21:00 GMT and should make interesting reading as a number of officials want interest rate hikes as early as June or July, whereas the market is discounting this heavily with only 23% of investors expecting a hike in either month. As ever the words that are used and indeed not used will be scrutinized closely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

Oil prices firmed over 3% to hit a peak of $48.16 bbl (at the time of writing), with gold prices hitting a high of $1,290. Oil was supported by a Goldman Sachs report that the oil market had shifted from a supply glut to a deficit earlier than expected. Oil prices in general markets have been supported over last few trading days by news of decreasing US production and output disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. The production cuts are helping to rebalance the global oil market awash with unwanted crude oil and pushing up prices almost 12% since the market rallied from my Buy Area published in the May 5^th analysis on oil.

A known gold bull John Paulson reduced his investments on the yellow metal while George Soros and other large investment funds increased their holdings in the metal for the first time in years. This was shown by filings on Monday. Reuters reports that New York-based hedge fund Paulson & Co, led by John Paulson, cut its investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s biggest gold exchanged-traded fund (ETF), by 17 percent to 4.8 million shares,  according to US Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

RBA’s May cut was driven by “broad-based” softening in inflation, even as the growth outlook remained largely steady, according to the meeting minutes. They had considered waiting for more information, but of course decided to cut 0.25% to 1.75%. Recall that the CPI fell in Q1, marking the first drop since 2008. Core CPI growth moderated to the slowest pace on record. And labour costs have been soft. The RBA’s target band for underlying inflation is 2-3%, but they lowered it to 1-2% for 2016 in the forecasts released May 6. In our view, another rate cut is likely in June or August.

US NAHB homebuilder sentiment was flat at 58 in May, holding at that relatively firm level for a fourth consecutive month. The current single family sales index was also unchanged at 63 after dipping 2 points to that level in April. The future sales index rose 3 points to 65 after inching up 1 point to 62 last month. The index of prospective buyer traffic was steady at 44. Builders cited the regulatory environment and low inventories as sources of restraint, according to the report, while low mortgage rates and a solid job market underpins.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Inflation April CPI: is expected unchanged at 0.5% y/y (median same) while core CPI is seen ebbing back to 1.4% y/y from 1.5% in March. This would closely fit BoE projections. PPI output prices are seen at -0.7% (median -0.8%) after -0.9% in March. However, with the BoE having stressed last week that economic and financial indicators are likely to be “less informative than usual” in light of the uncertainties being thrown up by approaching referendum on EU membership, the figures may not carry the usual potential to impact sterling markets.

• US Industrial Production: April industrial production should reveal a 0.3% increase on the month after dropping by 0.6% in both March and February. The capacity utilization rate should rise to 75.0% from 74.8% in March and 75.3% in February. Mining employment in the April report extended the run of recent weakness that the collapse in oil prices has driven and could lend some downside risk to the release.

• US CPI The April CPI: should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.4%) headline increase while the core rises by 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows respective March figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.1% as well. The declines in gasoline prices over the winter have weighed on price report headlines but we have seen some rebound in oil prices this spring which should begin to bring an end to this effect.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Risk aversion is picking up, with stock markets continuing to head south in Asia, oil prices down and save haven assets rising. The EUR is little changed against the dollar. However, European bond futures failed to get support from rising risk aversion and a broad decline in stock markets yesterday so weak leads won’t necessarily translate into a drop in yields early in the session, especially if German data at the start is hawkish. The data calendar is very busy see below for German figures on GDP and CPI. Italy also has preliminary Q1 GDP and there are final inflation numbers from  Spain and Italy as well as French payrolls data.

German  GDP and CPI: The German economy gained pace at the start of this year. In the first quarter of 2016, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.7% on the fourth quarter of 2015 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. GDP numbers are stronger than expected, the strong expansion is unlikely to be sustained in the second quarter and the risks to the medium term outlook remain tilted to the downside. Still, for now the numbers back the ECB’s wait and see stance. Consumer prices in Germany fell by 0.1% in April 2016 compared with April 2015. The inflation rate – measured by the consumer price index – thus decreased, following a slight increase in the previous month. A negative rate had last been recorded in January 2015 (–0.3%). Compared with March 2016, the consumer price index fell by 0.4% in April.

BoE Warns Brexit would Lower Growth and Lift Inflation: The BoE once again voted unanimously to keep rates on hold today, as widely expected. The uncertainty ahead of the Brexit referendum on June 23 is now clearly having an impact and the inflation report lowered the expected growth trajectory even though it is based on the assumption that the U.K. will remain in the EU. At the same time the MPC stated very clearly that a a vote to leave the EU would lead to lower growth and higher inflation. The implication for the monetary policy outlook in such a scenario may be ambiguous, but the comments very clearly provide further ammunition to the “remain” camp in the run-up to the referendum.

Fedspeak: George (known hawk) said rates are too low for current conditions, in her speech on “Longer-Term Labor Market Trends, the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.” Boston Fed’s Rosengren warned risk of a hike is bigger than markets think. Cleveland Fed’s Mester (hawk): risks around Fed forecasts shouldn’t paralyze policymakers, and oil prices and the dollar have partly stabilized recently.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Retail Sales: April retail sales are out on later today and should reveal a 0.6% (median 0.8%) headline with the ex-autos figure up 0.4% (median 0.4%) for the month. This follows March figures which had retail sales down 0.3% and ex-autos up 0.2%. The outlook for the release looks promising as vehicle sales rebounded to a 17.3 mln clip for the month alongside continued strength in construction employment which could help lift building material sales.

• US PPI: April PPI is out today and should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.3%) headline with a 0.1% (median 0.1%) core increase for the month. The March headline was -0.1% as was the core and inflation measures had been struggling to post gains alongside the renewed downturn in oil prices that we saw over the winter. Oil prices remain depressed but there was some rebound in April which could help lift the PPI.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Higher oil prices and a weaker yen competed with disappointing earnings results in Japan and the U.S. and left Asian stock markets struggling and swinging between gains and losses. U.S. stock futures are higher but FTSE 100 futures are down ahead of the BoE announcement, which is not expected to bring a change in policy, but will be closely watched for dovish signs in the minutes and especially the quarterly inflation report. Mixed leads then for European bond futures, which closed narrowly mixed yesterday, as a reversal of intra-Eurozone safe haven flows weighed on Bund futures. The European calendar also has final French inflation data and Eurozone production numbers.

BoJ Governor Kuroda: Talked up room for easing substantially, if necessary, in a Boersen-Zeitung interview reported yesterday, warning that the BoJ has “certainly not” run out of ammunition. He suggested that a little patience may be required, but the positive inflation trend is absolutely intact. “The quantitative easing, the qualitative easing, the negative interest rate — these are the three dimensions where we can act,” he said. USDJPY has rallied from an overnight low of 108.28 and is currently trading at 108.92, in an attempt to retake 109.00.

Canada’s GDP Outlook Cut Due to Halt in Oil Production: Canada’s Q2 growth outlook has been sharply reduced due to the Fort McMurray wildfire that stopped oil production in the area. We have cut our projection for real Q2 GDP to flat (0.0%) from 1.5%. But we have boosted our Q3 GDP estimate to 2.4% from 1.8% amid the projected return in oil production and rebuilding in the area. Growth for 2016 has been cut to 1.6% from 1.7%, putting growth below the BoC’s 1.7% estimate. But given that the economic impact of the fire is temporary, the events should not sway Bank of Canada policy.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK BOE Announcements:  A no-change stance by unanimous vote is all but certain as the Old Lady has said that it will refrain from changing policy pending the outcome of the Jun-23 referendum on EU membership. Given the evident deceleration in growth momentum in the UK economy, the minutes are likely to show an uptick in dovish language. However, the focus will be on the updated set of forecasts in the quarterly inflation report although will polls still suggesting a very tight decision any forecasts ahead of the referendum will be subject to high uncertainty and greater error margins.

• US Import/Export Prices: April trade price data is out later today and we expect to see some increase with a 0.7% (median 0.6%) import price figure and a 0.2% increase for export prices. This follows respective March figures which had import prices up 0.2% and export prices unchanged. The plunge in oil prices that resumed last fall had helped to keep the headline figures negative but with oil prices rebounding we expect to see a subsequent recovery in the trade price indexes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: The global uptick in stock markets continued overnight in Asia although gains in Japan, China and Australia are more muted and the Hang Seng is down, as are U.S. and U.K. stock futures. Oil prices are also slightly lower with the front end WTI future trading in a narrow range below USD 45 per barrel. Investors in Japan will have to weigh the stronger yen, against the wealth of earnings reports this week. In Europe, Vivendi, E.ON and Deutsche Post report results, the UK releases industrial production data and there is ECB speak from Nowotny as well as a German Schatz sale.

Mixed Japanese data: Japan’s leading index decreased less-than-expected in March but to the lowest level in forty months, preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed earlier. The leading index that reflects the future economic activity, fell to 98.4 in March from 98.9 in February. Expectations were for the index to drop to 96.4. The latest reading was the weakest since November 2012, when it marked 97.6. At the same time, the coincident index that indicates the current economic activity rose to 111.2 in March from 110.7 in the preceding month.

The U.S. wholesale report: Revealed the first rise in both sales and inventories in six months, and with a larger sales than inventory rise that allowed modest downward pressure on the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio after the steep spike to a 1.37 expansion-high in January. Sales rose 0.7% in March while inventories rose 0.1%, and the I/S ratio sustained the February downtick to 1.36. We still expect a boost in Q1 GDP growth to 0.9% from 0.5%, but with a $2 bln boost in wholesale inventories that accompanies a $6 bln boost in factory inventories, alongside a $1 bln hike in equipment spending and $3 bln boosts in both construction and consumption. We still expect 2.0% GDP growth in Q2 with a $13 bln inventory subtraction that leaves a $56 inventory accumulation rate, after a $9.5 (was $17.5) bln subtraction in Q1, as the rate of inventory accumulation slowly drops back to a sustainable rate in the $40 bln area. For monthly forecasts, we expect a 0.3% March business inventory rise after a 0.1% February drop. Today’s 0.1% March rise for wholesale inventories accompanies a 0.2% bounce for factories and an assumed 0.6% retail inventory rise.

Canadian oil-sands fires: The oil production facilities are 90% unscathed and expected to restart within days, possibly weeks. A report by Bloomberg quotes Steve Williams, chief executive officer of Canada’s largest energy company, Suncor Energy: “Mines and drilling projects north of Fort McMurray are already bringing back some of the roughly 1 million barrels a day of supply that was curbed, Facilities south of the energy hub may take longer”.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Manufacturing Production: (08:30 GMT) A year on year decrease to -1.9% from -1.85% is expected, following a weak q1. The month on month figure is expected to rise to 0.4% from -1.1% last time.

• US Crude Oil Inventories: (15:30 GMT) Following last week’s surge to 2.8 million barrels, inventories are expected to show a big drawdown following the Canadian wildfires with only 0.1 million barrels.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

FOREX News Today

China CPI & PPI: CPI month on month (-0.2%) improved from previous (-0.4%) the year on year figure was a little short of expectations and remained unchanged at 2.3% (expectations were for a slight rise to 2.4%. It eases worries about deflation but the economy remains soft. Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to improve and beat expectations, actual number was -3.4% beating expectations of -3.8% and better than the March figure which was -4.3%.

German Industrial Production & Trade Balance: Worse than expected and was the second consecutive monthly drop. Industrial production was -1.3% from -0.7% last month and significantly weaker than expectations at -0.2%. Conversely the German trade balance exceeded expectations at 23.6bln euro but German exports declined by 0.5% and imports by 4.3% in March 2016 year on year.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari, monetary policy stance is appropriate and there’s room for improvement in the economy, he said, though non-monetary policies are more important than Fed policy to attain full employment. Indeed, he reiterates that monetary policy has its limits and there’s too much focus on near-term interest rate policy than the need for long-term solutions. Sounds like he continues to straddle the fence and would vote with the consensus in June (whatever that is) if he had a vote.

Japan FM Aso: Yesterday talked of potential intervention by the BOJ and that the US does not object to Japans FX policy, however, overnight he has been quoted “We’ve been saying that one-sided rapid currency moves are undesirable. As a result, the dollar is now moving around 108.00”   All very interesting, USDJPY currently  trading at 108.80.         

Main Macro Events Today

•   US Wholesale Inventories: An improvement to -0.1% from -0.5% is expected.

• UK Trade Balance: We expect a rise to -11.2bln GBP from -12Bln last month. Brexit remains the dominant factor for the GBP.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.