FX News Today

European Council President Donald Tusk called for a deal in Greek debt talks by the end of the month and said more intensive efforts were needed for that to happen. Talks are dragging on over reforms Greece must carry out to complete the review of its third international financial rescue package, as well as on contingency steps that Athens must prepare in case it misses its fiscal targets. (source: Reuters)

Chinese authorities are training their sights on a new set of targets: economists, analysts and business reporters with gloomy views on the country’s economy. Securities regulators, media censors and other government officials have issued verbal warnings to commentators whose public remarks on the economy are out of step with the government’s upbeat statements, according to government officials and commentators with knowledge of the matter. (source: Wall Street Journal)

New Zealand’s jobless rate rose in the first quarter as the nation’s labour force recorded its biggest increase in 12 years and Auckland drove an increase in employment growth. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent in the first quarter, from a revised 5.4 percent three months earlier, Statistics New Zealand said. The labour force increased by 38,000, or 1.5 percent, the largest increase since December 2004.

SF Fed dove Williams expects the Fed to gradually raise rates over the next couple of years and he agreed with the decision not to raise rates yet this year. He is forecasting 2% GDP growth this year, but needs to see inflation pick up or continued progress on the economy to hike in June. He is supposed to be speaking from a panel on systemic risk from Los Angeles later and his remarks are being picked up Bloomberg Radio. He has leaned toward the hawkishly patient side this year and this fits that profile.

BoC Governor Poloz said yesterday in a panel discussion that low interest rates mean less impact from rate moves. International performance divergence causes volatile foreign exchange. The U.S. economy is in a sweet spot for growth. The time it takes before inflation kick in is an open question, he said. The federal budget is expansionary. The Governor is taking part in a panel discussion.

Main Macro Events Today

• The ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting:  The ECB Governing council will meet today but no monetary policy will discussed in this Non-monetary policy ECB meeting. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced in July last year that the Governing Council meetings dedicated to monetary policy will change to a new six-week cycle, from January 2015. Non-monetary policy meetings will continue to be held at least once a month.

• US ADP Unemployment change: The unofficial ADP unemployment report for April is due today. No major change is expected with consensus expectation being at 196K while the previous survey reported 200K new jobs.

• US Non-Manufacturing ISM: The ISM-NMI is out on Wednesday and should hold steady at 54.5 (median 54.1) from last month. The ISM for the month declined to 50.8 from 51.8. Broadly speaking, producer sentiment has eased to still firm levels in April after a surge in March. We expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to dip back to 51 for April from 53 in March and 49 in both February and January. This could spell some downside risk to the release

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

German retail sales unexpectedly dropped 1.1% m/m in March. Expectations had been for a rebound from the initially reported decline in February, but even if last month’s number was revised up to 0.0% m/m from -0.4% m/m, it still means the correction in March was a surprise and disappointment. Retail sales cover only part of overall consumption and the most recent confidence numbers, which show a marked improvement in the willingness to spend suggest consumption will continue to underpin overall economic activity, but the data nevertheless suggest a downside risk to Q1 GDP numbers.

French Q1 GDP came in at 0.5% q/q, up from 0.3% q/q in Q4 last year thanks to a sharp pick up in consumption which expanded 1.2% q/q. It is difficult to say how much of this is due to the Easter effect, with the early timing of the holiday likely to have inflated the consumption number, but also translating into less hours worked. Import growth slowed markedly, while exports contracted -0.2% q/q. Gross fixed capital formation rose 0.9% q/q, a further acceleration from the 0.7% q/q in Q4 last year, which is encouraging. The annual rate still fell back though to 1.3% from 1.4% and while data confirms that the economy continued to expand in the first quarter, confidence indicators already point to a slowdown in the second quarter, so even if the better than expected French number leaves some upside risk for the Eurozone data later on, the backward looking numbers won’t change the ECB policy for now.

The Eurozone and Brexit Risks: Brexit concerns may have receded somewhat as warnings over the consequences for the U.K. are getting louder. However, while the direct economic impact of an exit from the European Union may be bigger for the U.K. than for the EU, the damage such a step could do to confidence not just into the EU, but also the single monetary union, should not be underestimated. Anti-establishment forces are gaining strength as the debate over the costs and benefits of closer cooperation intensifies and a reform-push is needed to keep the project of ever closer cooperation in Europe on track. Ultimately though, this will be easier within the union than from an outsider position.

 

Main Macro Events Today

• Euro Area GDP:  Eurozone Q1 GDP releases kick off with France and Spain early in the session, followed by overall Eurozone numbers later on. We expect broadly stable quarterly growth rates of 0.3% q/q in France and 0.7% in Spain, with the latter marginally down from the 0.8% q/q in Q4 last year. Italy and Germany only release numbers later in the month, but the preliminary overall Eurozone rate is also likely to be 0.3% q/q, unchanged from Q4 last year.

• Euro Area HICP: We have lowered our forecast for Eurozone April HICP inflation to -0.2% y/y from -0.1% y/y after the weaker than expected German and Spanish numbers. The drop back into negative territory is not really a surprise and was already flagged by Bundesbank and ECB officials ahead of the releases, so that in itself the data won’t change the policy outlook. Officials are still expecting headline rates to pick gradually later in the year, but will keep a close eye on developments in the exchange rate as well as oil prices ahead of the next forecast revisions in June.

• Canada GDP: We expect GDP to fall 0.2% in February (median same at -0.2%) after the 0.6% surge in January. The components that underpin the February GDP estimate were mixed, but with a negative bent. We anticipate a 2.5% Q1 GDP performance that will be in the ballpark of the BoC’s 2.8% estimate from the April MPR.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

BoJ refrained from easing policy, causing widespread disappointment in markets given the backdrop of a strong yen and low inflation. Data today showed April headline CPI unexpectedly falling back into deflation at -0.1% y/y, while the core reading — which the BoJ is mandated to target at 2% — dove to a three-year low of -0.3% y/y, down from 0.0% in March. The central bank left the deposit rate at -0.1% and the annual pace of QQE purchases at Y80 tln. The BoJ has left policy on hold in both of the meetings since its Jan-29 gathering, when it decided to introduce NIRP (implemented on Feb-12). The central bank once again pushed back its forecast for driving inflation to its 2% target to “during fiscal 2017” (once upon a time it was 2015). The statement maintained that the economy has “continued its moderate recovery trend,” but warned that growth would be lower due to weak export performance and kept the door ajar for further easing.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates steady at 2.25% after cutting by 25 bps to 2.25% in March. The 2.25% rate setting is a record low. The March cut was driven by a concern over eroding inflation expectations. Low headline inflation was again noted, with a material decline in shorter term expectations still front and center at the Bank. Despite the lack of action in April, more rate cuts could be in store: Governor Wheeler said “Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range.” That’s a repeat from March.

Fed Stuck in Neutral All Over Again: The Fed had a few tricks up its rhetorical sleeves in April, but made few meaningful changes to the economic or policy outlooks in its steady decision. Growth and inflation remained finely balanced and any reference to the “balance of risks” was accordingly left out of the statement, as the FOMC continues to straddle the fence on the next move. Some excitement came with the apparent departure of “global economic and financial developments,” though this snuck back in later in the statement. A closer look at the details shows the Fed is cognizant of the poor outlook for Q1 GDP “even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed.” It was also a little more downbeat on inflation “inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2% longer-run objective,” compared to “inflation picked up in recent months” previously.

Main Macro Events Today

• US GDP The first release on Q1 GDP is out today and should reveal a 0.5% (median 0.7%) headline clip for the quarter. This would follow a 1.4% pace in Q4 of last year and 2.0% in Q3. We expect the ongoing inventory unwind to weigh on the headline but the advance trade report yesterday revealed a big 3.4% import decline which is likely an extension of this unwind. Import weakness will likely benefit net exports for the quarter which will help prop up the headline.

• US Jobless Claims Claims data for the week of April 23rd should remain steady with a 247k (median 255k) headline that matches last week’s headline. Claims look poised to leave a 255k average in April which would follow a 264k average in March and 261k in February. The monthly employment report is expected to show a 210k headline from 215k in March with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.9% from 5.0% last month.

• German Unemployment
  German jobless numbers have fallen to very low levels, but with growth slowing down, the improvement on the labour market is also running out of steam and we are looking for a slight uptick in the German sa jobless number for April of 4K, which should leave the jobless rate at a low 6.2% (medians same). The tight labour market has been pushing up wages and is underpinning consumption but the integration of the large number of refugees will be the main challenge for coming years.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Most Asian stock markets are down on the day, disappointing earning results added to Yen strength weighed on Japanese markets. Oil prices are higher and the front end WTI future is comfortably above USD 44 per barrel, but investors remain cautious ahead of this week’s round of central bank decisions, which kicks off with the Fed announcement today, which will be followed by the BoJ tomorrow. Fed is unanimously expected to maintain and unchanged rate stance (there is no press conference). Hence, the focus will be on the nuances of the policy statement and we see some risk that it will be more hawkish than markets expect. In Europe, the focus is on the first release of UK. Q1 GDP data, which is expected to confirm that growth moderated somewhat at the start of the year. The UK. also has CBI reported sales data for April.

Australian CPI much weaker than expected: The headline figure for the quarter (q/q) -0.2% expected  +0.2%, previous reading  +0.4%. The yearly y/y 1.3% from previous 1.7% and expectations of 1.7%. The ‘trimmed mean’ (Core inflation) also lower at 0.2% (0.5% expected and 0.6% q/q) and 1.7% y/y expectations were for 2.0% previously 2.1%. This is a very large variance over one fifth lower than expectations.  Low inflation is effectively a tightening of interest rates so this poor number raises the expectations of the RBA having to cut rates. The RBA next meet  May 3.  AUDUSD fell over 1.7% and is currently trading at 0.7610.

ECB’s Coeure: Only sharp EUR appreciation would be concern. The Executive Board member seems to suggest that current levels are not a problem and won’t trigger further ECB action on their own. At the same time Coeure hit out at critics of the ECB’s policy, seeing that some of them miss the bigger picture. Especially Germany has been very critical of the central bank’s policies, but Coeure stressed that these critiques do not hamper the central bank’s ability to function, which implies that political pressure won’t prevent further action if the ECB sees the necessity to act.

US Weak Sentiment Signals: Revealed a weak round of March durable goods figures thanks to weak equipment data, and an expectations-led April consumer confidence drop. Yet, the April decline in the Richmond Fed index to 14 from 22 translated to a surprisingly strong 55.7 on an ISM-adjusted basis, while the Markit Services flash PMI rose to 52.1 from 51.3. Thanks to the weak equipment data, the mix lowered our GDP growth forecast to a flat figure from 0.3% in Q1 and a 2.0% clip from 2.2% in Q2. The factory sector remained weak through March despite the bounce for factory sentiment, and we still expect an upturn in the factory figures in Q2.

Main Macro Events Today

• FOMC Rate Decision: 18:00 GMT – No change expected and as there is no press conference the actual words in the Monetary Policy Statement released at 18:30 GMT will be scrutinized very closely.

• UK – GDP Prelim:.    08:30 GMT – A fall to 0.4% is expected from 0.6% last quarter and the y/y figure is expected to shrink to 2% from 2.1% last time. GBPUSD has been in a strong uptrend recently.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: The decline on global stock markets continued in Asia overnight, with most markets in the red. UK stock futures are posting slight gains; however as oil prices managed to claw back some losses and the front end WTI future moved above USD 43 per barrel after falling to an earlier low of USD 42.64. A stronger Yen added to pressure on Japanese markets ahead of the BoJ meeting later this week, while the fact that the EUR is holding below 1.13 to the dollar will be welcomed by Eurozone investors. Markets are cautious ahead of this week’s central bank meetings, with the Fed meeting starting today. The local calendar is very quiet with only UK BBA mortgage approvals and French jobseekers.

US Sentiment Mixed Signals: The Empire State and Philly Fed reports revealed opposing April headlines, with a big gain for the Empire State but a dramatic plunge for the Philly Fed. We think the March sentiment upswing will mostly survive this early-April divergence, with a drop-back in the ISM-adjusted average of the major measures to 51 after the March pop to 53 from lower 49 averages in both January and February. The price measures of both surveys were firm, and price gains into April should sustain firmness in the remaining April surveys.

US Dallas Fed manufacturing index falls: The index slipped to -13.9 in April from -13.6 in March, a 16th consecutive monthly decline, though the pace of decline is only about 1/3 of what it was in January. The employment component improved to -3.7 from -10.3, but remained in contractionary territory for a 4th straight month. The workweek was -1.0 from -5.6. New orders jumped to 6.2 from -4.8, and are the highest since October 2014. Prices paid rallied to 5.5 from -0.2, and are in positive territory for the first time since June, with prices received at -6.6 from -8.2. Capital expenditures rose to 1.6 from -0.9. However, the 6-month general business activity index eroded to 0.4 from 6.1, with employment weakening to 9.4 from 13.0, though new orders improved to 32.6 from 29.7, with prices paid edging up to 20.2 from 18.9. Capital expenditures dipped to 8.5 from 13.3. This is a mixed report with some signs that the recession in the region is easing, though the slide in some of the future indicators is disappointing.

US New Home Sales mixed: New home sales saw a 1.5% March drop to a 511k rate, but with prior boosts that left a stronger than expected 515k Q1 sales rate that matched the cycle-high in Q1 of 2015. Inventories beat estimates after upward revisions to leave a six-year high, though median prices fell 3.2% in March after downward revisions to leave a 1.8% y/y decline

 

Main Macro Events Today

• US Durable Goods: March durable goods data is out today and we expect orders to grow 1.0% (median 1.9%) on the month with shipments down 0.5% and inventories down 0.2%. This follows respective February figures of -3.0% for orders, -1.0% for shipments and -0.3% for inventories. Data in line with our forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.66 for a second month.

• US Consumer Confidence: April consumer confidence is also out later today and should reveal a headline decrease to 95.5 (median 95.8) from 96.2 in March. This would fit with the broader trend of confidence declines in April where we saw a Michigan Sentiment decrease to 89.7 from 91.0 and an IBD/TIPP decline to 46.3 from 46.8.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly lower, with Japan outperforming and posting modest gains, as the Yen weakened across the board. Generally though risk aversion is picking up again after U.S. stock markets closed in the red, following the mixed performance in Europe yesterday. U.K. stock futures are also down, U.S. futures mixed. Oil prices are up on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 44 per barrel. The DAX, which managed to close with a slight gain yesterday is heading for a quiet end to the weak and the FTSE is likely to continue to underperform amid Brexit concerns. Bund and Gilt futures could recover some of yesterday’s sharp losses with the unexpected Riksbank easing sparking concerns that the general outlook is worse than feared and the ECB dampening hopes of further easing in the near future. The calendar focuses on Eurozone PMI readings for Aprils, where we look for a modest improvement in headline rates, but a confirmation that growth in core countries is slowing down.

More poor data from Japan: Japanese Tertiary Industry activity shrank m/m by -0.1%, but this was better than expectations of a -0.4% fall, previously the index stod at 0.7%.  Meanwhile Manufacturing PMI fell 1.1 to 48 its lowest levels since December 2012, following the two earthquakes around the southern island of Kyushu (a major area of manufacturing) outlook continue to look uncertain. The JPY weaken against EUR GBP and USD. USDJPY rose over 110 on the data releases its highest since April 6^th..

ECB In Wait and See Mode, Helicopter Money Off the Table: No big surprises from the ECB yesterday, with the central bank focused on implementing the March easing package and effectively in wait and see stance. The door to further easing remains open if necessary, but it is clear that for now nothing is in the pipeline and in our view September seems the earliest time for a serious policy review. However, even if the ECB might add additional measures in the future, Helicopter money certainly remains off the agenda.  The introductory statement explicitly stated that the focus at the central bank for now is the implementation of the measures announced in March. The overall assessment of the situation remains pretty much unchanged from the last meeting, with the risks to the growth outlook still seen on the downside and global headwinds and geopolitical risks seen as the main factors that could hit the still fragile recovery. Like the Bundesbank already said earlier in the week, inflation could fall back into negative territory in coming months, but the main scenario is still a pick up later in the year and a gradual rise through 2017 and 2018. No major changes to the central staff projections from March then .The EURUSD flirted with an attempt at 1.1400, but retreated to 1.1268 briefly, the pair currently trading at 1.1300.

 

Main Macro Events Today

•  EMU PMI:  PMI readings are likely to be more mixed than the clear improvement in ZEW investor confidence and highlight once again the renewed divergence between countries. France seems to remain stuck in contraction territory, even if today’s national business confidence numbers showed some improvement. German PMI numbers are still expected to improve, but only slightly. For the Eurozone as a whole, we are looking for an improvement in the manufacturing PMI to 51.7 (med 51.8) from 51.6 and a rise in the services reading to 53.3 (med same) from 53.1. Stronger growth in smaller countries is helping to compensate for the weakness in the core, but economic momentum is slowing down, which will also start to have an impact on the labour market.

• Canada CPI: We expect CPI, due today, to slow to a 1.1% y/y pace in March (median +1.2%) from the 1.4% clip in February. But CPI is seen rising 0.5% on a month comparable basis in March after the 0.2% gain in February. Gas prices jumped around 5% m/m in March after falling 6.9% m/m in in February and dropping 6.0% in January. Currency appreciation could restrain price growth. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen rising 0.4% m/m in March after the 0.5% gain in February, consistent with recent moves in this not seasonally adjusted index during March. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 1.8% y/y rate (median same at +1.8%) in March, down from the 1.9% pace in February and 2.0% clip in January.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of mainland China rallied as risk appetite picked up with oil prices. The Nikkei is up 2.4% and US. and UK stock futures are also moving higher, which will likely see Bund and Gilt futures shedding some of yesterday’s gains. Improved risk appetite should also help to bring in Eurozone spreads ahead of the ECB meeting. Draghi is widely expected to stay put for now, but highlight uncertainty and keep the door open to further action down the line if necessary. The calendar also has U.K. retail sales and public finance data as well as French business confidence.

Oil producer meeting in Russia in May: This idea was fostered by remarks from the Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister, who also said Iraq expected to hold oil exports steady at 3.9 mln bpd in May and also forecast prices rising slowly despite the Doha impasse. This apparently was behind the sudden knee-jerk rebound in crude oil, despite the end of Kuwaiti strikes and reported build in EIA crude inventories. Overnight Russia said it had no plans to decrease output, however, and swing producers the Saudis and Russians remain key to the Gordian supply knot. Brent is currently trading over $46 per barrel and WTI over $44 per barrel after the EIA predicted the biggest fall in non-OPEC oil production in a generation.

US Existing Homes Sales Rise: The 5.1% March US. existing home sales bounce to a 5.33 mln clip mostly reversed the February drop to a disappointing 5.07 (was 5.08) mln pace to leave an in-line report, with additional expected gains of 5.0% for the median price that initiated the usual Spring increase, and 5.9% for inventories to a still-lean 1.98 mln level. Existing home sales have largely defied an assumed winter lift from mild weather, and remain below the 5.48 mln cycle-high pace last July. We still have only a moderate and erratic housing recovery, and we expect a restrained 5% 2016 existing home sales increase after a 6.5% 2015 rise, but a 2.9% 2014 post “taper-tantrum” drop. We have cyclical increases of only 54% for existing home sales and 43% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 90% for new home sales, 128% for housing starts, and 112% for permits.

BoE MPC hawk McCafferty hints he may vote for a hike: McCafferty had previously voted for a quarter point rate hike from August 2015 through to January this year, before returning to the fold from February, voting to leave the repo rate unchanged at 0.5% in every meeting since. In a speech today he cited “fears about the global economy” and “disappointingly weak growth in nominal wages and other domestic prices” as causing him to stop arguing for tightening. Now, however, he says that while “the appropriate timing for starting the process of policy normalisation has been delayed, the benefits of a gradual rise in interest rates once we start remain, to me, convincing,” and, “I still anticipate having to return to a vote to tighten monetary policy at some stage, although I cannot offer a firm date as to when that might occur.”

 

Main Macro Events Today

•   ECB Outlook: Draghi is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged at today’s council meeting. Indeed, with officials stressing that helicopter money may be an interesting academic idea but is not under serious consideration and the ECB focused on implementing the measures already announced the central bank is seen on hold for an extended period. With growth slowing down in core countries and the Brexit referendum adding to uncertainties, hopes of further action down the line remain, even if helicopter money may be too much of a leap. For now though the ECB remains on hold and at the moment September seems the earliest for a serious policy review.

 

• US Initial Jobs Claims: Claims data for the week of April 16th are out Thursday and should reveal a 252k (median 264k) headline that remains about unchanged from last week’s 253k. Claims look poised to average a slightly stronger 263k in April, compared to 264k in March. We expect April employment to post a 210k headline versus a 215k figure for March with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.9% from 5.0% in March.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market recovery run out of steam in Asia, with bourses mixed. Chinese equities retreated and Japan managed only slight gains as oil prices retreated. The front end WTI future fell towards USD 40 per barrel, after Kuwait workers said they would end the strike that has disrupted output. A stronger Yen weighed on Japanese markets and US and UK stock futures are also down, indicating that bond futures could recover some of their recent losses in Europe. The calendar has UK labour market and earnings data and a German Bund sale. Markets will be looking ahead to tomorrow’s ECB meeting, with Draghi seen on hold for an extended period, but hopes of further action down the line remain, even if helicopter money may be too much of a leap. And like ECB officials BoJ Governor Kuroda also played down the idea, citing legal issues.

BoJ Governor Kuroda rejects idea of helicopter money, saying that he isn’t thinking about helicopter money and that the version that tries to inject cash into the economy by permanently monetising fiscal deficits would be blurring the line of fiscal and monetary policy and contradicts the current legal framework. Kuroda told lawmakers that “unless the existing legal framework changes, helicopter money isn’t possible, and we at the Bank of Japan aren’t thinking about it at all”.

German PPI -3.1% In March 2016 the index of producer prices for industrial products fell by 3.1% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In February 2016 the annual rate of change all over had been –3.0%. In March 2016 energy prices decreased by 9.2% compared with March 2015, prices of intermediate goods by 2.3% and prices of non-durable consumer goods by 0.3%. In contrast prices of capital goods rose by 0.6% and prices of durable consumer goods by 1.4%. The overall index disregarding energy decreased by 0.9% compared with March 2015.

BoC Governor Poloz: His opening statement provides a summary of the MPR, as is typically the case in these appearances before the House and Senate. He listed the three negative developments for the growth outlook that have emerged since January, which were more than offset by the fiscal measures put forth in the Federal budget in March. The growth outlook is 1.7% in 2016, 2.3% in 2017 and 2% in 2018, as seen in the MPR. Cautious optimism remains in place: economic data have been “encouraging on balance”, but also “quite variable.” There has not been “concrete evidence of higher investment or strong firm creation.

 

Main Macro Events Today

• US Existing Home Sales: March existing home sales data is out later today and should reveal a 4.3% rebound to a 5.300 mln (median 5.236 mln) pace from 5.080 mln in February and 5.470 mln in January. The month’s housing starts release revealed a drop to a 1.089 mln pace from 1.194 mln in February. Secondary measures of housing data were stronger in March with the MBA purchase index up by 4.2% and the NAHB composite holding steady.

• Draghi & Poloz: Speeches are scheduled today by the ECB’s Mario Draghi at the ECB Generation Euro competition, in Frankfurt; and the BOC’s Poloz who will continue his testimony to the Finance Committee at the Canadian parliament.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets recovered yesterday in tandem with oil prices and Asian markets followed suit with Japan in particular staging an impressive rebound. The Nikkei is up nearly 3.5% and the Topix gained nearly 3% after yesterday’s steep decline. The front end WTI (USOil) future is slightly off earlier highs, but still just shy of the EUR 40 per barrel mark and the weaker Yen helped stock markets to recover in Japan. Mixed U.S and UK stock futures are painting a more cautious picture although the DAX is higher ahead of the official opening. The local calendar has German ZEW investor confidence, seeing improving slightly amid the general recovery in risk appetite, as well as Eurozone current data and the latest ECB bank lending survey. The UK remains focused on the Brexit debate.

IMF Estimates Still too Rosy as Global Growth Slows: The IMF’s recent world growth downgrades left 2016 estimates that are still too optimistic given the ugly Q1 performance for both the developed and emerging economies. The market’s early-year panic alongside the winter oil price plunge proved partly justified, though most of the year’s bad news is hopefully behind us. We expect a modest 2016 undershoot of IMF growth estimates across all the major countries and regions except Canada and the U.K., Brexit risk aside, before an improved trend into 2017.

Fedspeak: The Fed’s Kashkari said Chair Yellen is open-minded in her policy approach. The comments are from an interview posted on the Minneapolis Fed’s website. He noted the various challenges facing policymakers, including a slowing in China which has caused shocks around the world, and Brexit. And he added the Fed of course has a “de facto, huge global influence,” and is aware of its impact on world economic developments (it’s part of the Fed’s calculus). He thinks the existing structure of the Fed is working well. There wasn’t anything new or especially market moving in his remarks, especially since the FOMC is universally expected to be on hold at next week’s meeting.

ECB’s Knot: Realistic to think rates won’t rise for a while. The Dutch central bank head said at a conference in The Hague that “for the short term its realistic to think the interest rate won’t rise”, although he warned home buyers to take possible increases in the future into account. It’s hardly a surprise that the ECB is not thinking about rate hikes at the moment, but Knot is right of course to remind consumers that in the long run rates will go up again. The last thing the ECB needs is a real property bubble and excessive risk taking in the mortgage market.

 

Main Macro Events Today 

• US Housing Starts: March housing starts data is later today and should reveal a slight headline increase to 1,185k (median 1,170k) from 1,1798k in February. Permits should be 1,200k from 1,177k in February and completions are seen at 1,040k in March from 1,016k in February. There is some upside risk to the data as construction employment remained firm in March and the NAHB remained stable.

• German ZEW:  German ZEW investor confidence is expected to have recovered somewhat, in line with the stabilisation on markets and we are looking for a rise in the expectations reading to 7.0 (med 8.0) from 4.3 in the previous month. Confidence data nevertheless is pointing to a gradual loss of momentum in core Eurozone countries including Germany, with the second quarter likely to look weak in comparison to the first quarter.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

China’s economic growth was slowest in seven years in the first quarter. At the same time though indicators from consumer, investment and factory sectors show encouraging signs that the slowdown in Chinese economy may soon be over. Official government data on Friday showed GDP grew 6.7 percent in the Q1 2016 from the previous year, (in line with analyst forecasts). This was slight drop from 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Reuters reports that while this was the weakest pace of expansion since the first quarter of 2009, when growth tumbled to 6.2 percent, other activity data reinforced previous signs that the economy may be finding traction with better-than-expected growth seen in retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment.

PBoC Deputy Governor said the economy is “pretty robust” in late-breaking remarks that China GDP could grow by 6.5-7.0% this year given electricity consumption figures and other data. The biggest challenge was to continue to carry out reforms, he said, while he felt the message had been received that the yuan is pegged against a basket of currencies, of which the dollar still has a relatively large weight. He concurred that market forces were the primary driver of FX moves and the bank doesn’t want to see a severe overshoot from current near-equillibrium levels. He also endorsed the independence of China monetary policy. USD-JPY got a little bid with the remarks as USDCNY cruised aback over 6.48%.

US Fed Lockhart: June should remain an option for a rate hike, he told reporters. But he added that Brexit is a consideration for policymakers, though how it “will be weighed, or should it be weighed is an open question.” It could affect exchange rates and raise long-term questions on the euro area. Yet, he doesn’t think it should “stop the music” for the FOMC, however.

BoE Holds Steady Amid Brexit Risk: The BoE once again voted unanimously to keep rates on hold yesterday, as widely expected. The uncertainty ahead of the Brexit referendum on June 23 is starting to have an impact on investment and the central bank like many investors seems to be in wait and see mode, even if the implicit tightening bias was left in place. The MPC highlighted that in this climate even the interpretation of economic indicators will be more difficult and that means no major decisions either way are likely to be made ahead of the referendum.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Industrial Production: The US Industrial production is expected to fall 0.4% in March, after falling 0.5% in February. Forecast risk: downward, as March mining data remained depressed. Market risk: upward, as a run of weaker data could impact rate hike timelines.

• US Capacity Utilization: The US Capacity Utilization numbers are out today and are expected to come in slightly lower than in March. The consensus expectation is 75.4% in March after 76.7% level in February. This follows a descending trend in the capacity utilization in 2015 after the index peaked at 80% in December 2014.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.