Macro Events & News

October 20, 2015 Forex Analysis

FX News Today

The fact that a recent ECB survey indicates rising demand for company loans and mortgages, it is a net positive development that the ECB measures are starting to take root. The central bank said in the release of its latest bank lending survey that banks are using the liquidity created by the quantitative easing measures to grant more loans. Meanwhile banks are reporting rising demand for company loans as well as lending for house purchases. A large part of the trouble within the Eurozone has been the lack of confidence from borrowers to borrow funds from banks. The whole point of the ECB QE program is to stimulate the Eurozone’s economy through making borrowing attractive enough for business to borrow and invest those borrowed funds back into their business. The hope of the ECB is that those businesses will create jobs and get the economy moving.

Fed’s Williams repeated his preference for an early move to raise interest rates. The Fed board member was speaking on Bloomberg and he said that he sees good arguments on both sides of the timing of a FED rate hike. But a 0% interest rate stance will not likely be needed in the future. He said the economy is strengthening, but noted that there are some concerns to the future economic outlook.

ECB’s Linde: Inflation trend is somewhat worrying. The Spanish central bank head stressed that the ECB has manifested that it can extend the QE program if needed, although he also said that the third Greek bailout deal has mitigated risks in Europe and that Spain is well positioned to deal with external challenges. No clear call for further easing, although so short ahead of the meeting, this would be unusual. Still, as Nowotny before him, Linde also voiced concerns about the inflation numbers, instead of highlighting that the weak headline rates are driven by the drop in oil prices, as Draghi has done so far.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German producer price inflation: dropped to 2.1% y/y in September, from -1.7% y/y in the previous month. Expectations had been for an unchanged headline rate and the drop further into negative territory was to a large extent due to lower energy prices, which fell 1.1% m/m and were down 6.1% y/y. Basic goods prices were also lower over the month.

• GBP BOE’s Governor Carney Speech: Sterling has been shining since data last week showed a drop in UK unemployment below 5.4%, which is for the first time in the cycle below the point at which the BoE expects labor market constraints to push price pressures upward. Traders will seek clues in Mr. Carny’s speech about when a rate hike could be expected.

• USD Housing Starts: Housing starts are expected to edge up to a 1,130k unit pace in September following the 3.0% drop to 1,126k in August. July set a high back to Oct ’07 and compares to a low of 521k in April ’09. Forecast risk: upward, as the NAHB remained firm. Market risk: downward, as a run of weaker data could impact rate hike time-lines. Permits are expected at 1,150k in September from 1,161k in August.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmuta Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.

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Free Forex Analysis for 10.20.2015

October 20, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 10.20.2015

AUDUSD, Daily

The pair is trading in a triangular formation near a descending regression channel (drawn from July 30th high). There was a close below 0.7265 low but no downside momentum or follow through. This suggests that price that the September pivot high is likely to support prices over the coming days and market is likely to eventually push higher from its support. The sideways movement might therefore continue. Last week’s high and low are key levels to look at. The nearest resistance levels are at 0.7364 and 0.7382, two pivotal highs that coincide with the upper Bollinger Bands and a 100 period SMA. Price should move to these highs and could turn lower from there in which case the 0.7260 support should work as an initial target for shorts. If price breaks out of the sideways formation the Fibonacci extension levels at 0.7471 and 0.7640 could come into play. The latter one coincides with a historical resistance level and is therefore more significant as a resistance level. In case the last week’s low gets violated the weekly high at 0.7085 should work as a target level.

GBPAUD, Daily

The pair has rallied to a level that used support price in September. Yesterday’s high was almost at the level with 2.1355 resistance and today we’ve seen a move lower. At the time of writing price is reacting higher from a 4h pivot and a 50 period SMA but with a higher time frame resistance above this is likely to remain intraday noise for those looking for bigger moves based on the daily chart. If price corrects lower from the 2.1355 resistance the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels provide a logical target area. These levels (2.1006 and 2.1047) coincide roughly with a 100 period moving average. The 4h chart points to 2.1302 – 2.1380 being an important resistance area while the 2.1006 – 2.1047 bracket coincides nicely with support area visible in the 4h chart. I’m looking for shorts between 2.1302 – 2.1380 with a view of taking profit between 2.1006 – 2.1047.

RBA minutes reveal a more upbeat view than expected

The central bank noted that “growth in output had continued at around the average pace of recent years” and that while global traded was “subdued” it had “picked up recently.” The board also noted that weakness in June-quarter growth had reflected “temporary, weather related disruptions to resource exports,” in addition to an ongoing decline in mining investment.

The RBA also noted “further evidence” that the economy is rebalancing from the resource sector toward non-mining activity, and was also fairly upbeat on the employment market. As for the risks, the board said that recent data “continue to raise concerns” about the outlooks for China and East Asia, which are Australia’s biggest markets for its resource exports. The swaps markets is pricing in odds of 58% for the RBA to cut interest rates in November, down from 65% ahead of the minutes (according to the FT). The Aussie dollar is also trading higher.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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EURUSD Analysis

October 19, 2015 Forex Analysis

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD printed a low of 1.1308 earlier today. At the time of writing this, price has managed to make a small price recovery and trades around 25 pips off the day’s low. Price has broken the 1.1340 support level. The EURUSD market will now focus on the ECB policy meeting later this week; ECB president Draghi is expected to hint at the expansion of the QE program. With the break of the 1.1340 support, this raises the fears for EURUSD bulls for a potential price return towards the 1.1280′s. On the daily observations, looking back 3 months, current price remains without clear direction. However, I do have a bullish bias towards a retest of the 1.1460′s – 1.1560′s, provided that price can manage a clean close above the 1.1370 (38.2% Fibo July low – August high), otherwise we could see a price breakdown below the 1.1280′s.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

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S&P 500 Approaching a major resistance

October 19, 2015 Forex Analysis

S&P 500, Weekly

In my previous report from September 7^th I took the view that ES (S&P 500 e-mini future) will not go below 1813 over the coming weeks. I also said that I’d be closing shorts and opening longs at around 1850 support while ES was trading at 1933 at the time. This worked out very well. Price retraced to 1860 where it pivoted and has been rallying since. I also predicted that this rally will take ES to 2046 resistance. We are at the time of writing 24 index points away from this prediction becoming fulfilled.

Market is getting overbought in terms of Stochastics Oscillator while it is getting close to the 2034 – 2046 resistance area. The 50 week SMA (currently at 2054) coincides roughly with this area. These technical factors together with other factors in the daily timeframe create a technical resistance that I expect will turn the price lower again. Support levels in the weekly chart are at 1813, 1861 and 1943.75 while resistance levels are at 2034.25, 2046 and 2104.70.

S&P 500, Daily

Since rallying strongly higher from 1860 support the upside momentum in ES has slowed down. The pivotal resistance area between 1982 and 2011.75 was a challenge to the bulls and price had to correct lower for a couple of days after hitting the 2011.75 resistance. This was highlighted by the Stochastics Oscillator. After price found support at 50 day SMA last week, we’ve seen another push higher but this has taken place with a lower volume. Price is now trading at the upper Bollinger Bands and near the resistance levels mentioned earlier. The 100 and 200 day SMAs coincide with the 2034 and 2046 resistance levels. As per usual these resistances are created by levels that used to support price. Stochastics and Money Flow are in the overbought zone wile RSI is indicating weakness by diverging from the price action (bearish divergence).

S&P 500, 240 min

The 4h chart reveals how there are no signs of market turning yet. Therefore another push higher should be in the cards. It also reveals the potential support levels that could cause the short sellers some challenges. The first one is at 2011.75, the pivotal high from September 17^th while the 23.6% Fibonacci level almost coincides with the 1982.50 support. The importance Fibonacci support is at 1925 (61.8%).

Conclusion

Market is overbought and getting near important resistance levels. I expect that we will see a reaction lower from 2034 – 2046 range. I’m looking for price action confirmation for short trades inside this range with targets at 1982.50 (T1) and 1945 (T2). By taking partial profits at T1 the probabilities of my trade being successful are increased. I expect that the ES will create a higher low between 1943.75 and 1973 where the 100 week SMA currently is. The stock market is still in a topping formation that followed a 6 year bull market. A market top in my experience is not a good time for long term stock investments.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

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Free Forex Analysis for 10.19.2015

October 19, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 10.19.2015

AUDUSD, Daily

AUDUSD 5-day change is lower against other major currencies in what seems to be a pause in the recent price rally from the September 29th low (0.6936) to the Oct 12th high (.7380). Daily technical observations spots a bullish 10,50 SMA cross, consecutive higher tops and bottoms on price from September 4th – October 12th (0.69 L / .7380 H ) and the fact that current price is trading above the 10,50 SMA brings me to the conclusion that price remains in a short term uptrend. If today’s low on price holds above the 0.7230 area this could create a lower top above last week’s low (0.72) that may open up the way towards 0.7380; my ultimate short term price objective near 0.7440. However, traders should be on alert for any break below the 0.72 support that may support a deeper price retracement from the September Low to October’s current high with relevant support in this case spotted around the 0.71-0.7110′s.

GBPAUD, Weekly

GBPAUD weekly chart analysis, price touched a six year high at 2.24 late August and since has made a series of lower tops on price. Current price is trading below both the tentative downward slopping trend line, and the 10 period SMA. Stochastic oscillator analysis spots a bullish cross below the 20 line indicating a possible pause in the current downward price direction. My conclusion for the weekly chart trader is to sell into any strength higher up from current price, ideally near the 2.14 area for a 2.03 target.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

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Economic Week 19 October 2015

October 19, 2015 Forex Analysis

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: Housing releases dominate the economic calendar. The sector has disappointed with relatively moderate growth despite the improved job market and still low mortgage rates. This week’s reports aren’t likely to alter that assessment. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index (Today) is projected steady at 62 in October, the best level since 2005. September housing starts (Tuesday) are seen edging up to a 1.130 mln pace, rebounding from a 7.1% cumulative decline in July and August. Existing home sales for September (Thursday) are projected rising 1.7% to a 5.40 mln clip to unwind part of the 4.8% August drop. The August FHFA home price index (Thursday) and weekly MBA mortgage numbers (Wednesday) are also slated. The only other report of note is the flash Markit manufacturing PMI for October. Chair Yellen (Tuesday) will give brief welcome remarks at a Labor Department event. Governor Brainard (Today) will discuss removing unnecessary regulation. Dudley and Powell (Tuesday) are speaking at a money market conference. And Governor Powell will also speak on market liquidity.
Canada: The Canadian calendar is highlighted by the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement (Wednesday) and the Monetary Policy Report. We expect no change to the current 0.50% setting, alongside a cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation that is supportive of no change in rates for an extended period. The Federal election will be held today. As for economic data, the September CPI is seen slowing to a 1.2% y/y pace, but with a flat month comparable reading as a drop in gasoline prices competes with the typical seasonal jump in clothing prices. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI is expected to nudge higher to a 2.2% y/y rate in September following the 2.1% clip in August. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in August after the 0.5% gain in July. Wholesale shipments (Tuesday) are seen rising 0.3% in August after the flat reading in July.
Europe: All eyes will be on the ECB this week. Eurozone inflation is back in negative territory and uncertainty about the global growth outlook is rising, which is putting intense pressure on Draghi to extend or expand the QE program. However, the ECB has already provided an unprecedented amount of stimulus and the measures have eased credit conditions and bolstered confidence. Inflation is expected to pick up again toward the end of the year and with domestic demand robust, we don’t see the risk of a deflationary spiral. What the Eurozone needs are structural reforms, not an ever-easy policy stance. And in this situation, Draghi is likely to maintain the wait and see approach, at least for now, although his comments are likely to be sufficiently dovish to keep markets happy, even if a steady hand policy will likely disappoint some and push up yields, at least temporarily. The economic calendar this week focuses on preliminary PMI readings for October (Friday), which we expect to show a further slowdown in the pace of expansion in both services and manufacturing. The EMU’s manufacturing reading is seen falling to 51.7 from 52.0 and the services reading to 53.4 from 53.6 in the previous month. Preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers for October are also expected to head south with growing concerns about the global growth outlook starting to spook consumers. The Eurozone also has BoP and current account data, Italian orders numbers and German PPI inflation.
United Kingdom: The week ahead is pretty quiet, which will leave the focus of sterling markets on external data and developments and Chinese growth data. UK government borrowing (Wednesday) is the first data of note, followed by official retail sales data for September (Thursday).
China: Growth was expected to slow to a 6.5% y/y pace, from the 7.0% clip seen in Q1 and Q2 but came in at 6.9%. The figure fell short of the 7.0% official forecast, but was so slight that the damage on global market sentiment remained negligible. Even the bigger drop was not expected to weigh on stocks due to the “good news is bad news” psychology and hopes of more PBoC stimulus. The better than expected data may not help sentiment much though, as the Chinese data are often viewed to be doctored. September industrial production (Today) is forecast to dip to 6.0% y/y from 6.2% in August. September retail sales (Today) are penciled in at 10.7% y/y gain, down slightly from the prior 10.8% outcome.
Japan: In Japan, the September trade report (Wednesday) also is eagerly awaited for growth insights though balance is likely to be impacted significantly by weakness in imports (y/y) amid low energy prices. Indeed, the JPY 569.4 bln August deficit is expected to reverse sharply to a surplus of JPY 50 bln. The pace of export growth is seen holding steady, though the increasingly sluggish growth in the region may limit exports as well. The August all-industry index (Wednesday) is expected to fall 0.4% m/m, as compared to the prior 0.2% gain.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Analysis for 10.16.2015

October 16, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 10.16.2015

AUDUSD, Daily

As expected the pair rallied from the 0.6938 support. AUD has now been trading at resistance and just recently failed to stay above the daily Bollinger Bands. The 100 period SMA has been limiting the upside in the occasions while the September pivotal high at 0.7280 has been supporting price yesterday and today. Price is now trading at 0.7263. A close below 0.7266 would make yesterday’s candle a pivot and a lower high. This looks likely. A break below 0.7200 would open a way to the 0.7020 support. If 0.7200 fails to support price look for reversals in 0.6938 – 0.7020 range for long trades and 0.7344 – 0.7382 for short trades.

AUDJPY, Daily

With AUDUSD rallying the AUDJPY moved higher as well. The pair hit resistance at 88.65 and reversed after trading outside the Bollinger bands. Now price action is taking place inside Bollinger Bands and the pair is fluctuating near 50 day simple moving average. There is some support at 86.08 but the 4h chart reveals a lower high after price reacted lower from a 30 period SMA and increases the chances price will break below this support. This would make the 82.88 – 84.29 a reasonable target level. Look for bullish reversals inside this range while 87.80 – 88.65 is a range for bearish reversals.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News

October 16, 2015 Forex Analysis

FX News Today

Bund futures are outperforming and yields heading south, while Eurozone spreads narrow, as weak inflation numbers bolster hopes of further ECB easing. Pressure on Draghi to at least set the stage for a widening or extension of the QE program next week are mounting amid the uncertainty about the global growth outlook. Nowotny’s comments yesterday that even core inflation is clearly below target further fuelled speculation of additional measures, although the Austrian central bank head called for structural reforms rather than hinting at ECB action.

The Eurozone posted trade surplus of EUR 19.8 bln in August, down from EUR 22.4 bln in the previous month. Exports were up 6.0% y/y in August, versus nominal import growth of 3.0% y/y, although considering that lower oil prices are suppressing the nominal import bill, real import growth will have been higher.

Eurozone final CPI was confirmed at -0.1% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 0.2% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that the drop back into negative territory was driven by a sharp decline in energy prices, which were down -1.7% m/m and -8.9% y/y, versus -7.2% y/y in August. Core inflation remains much higher at 0.9% y/y, but as Nowotny highlighted yesterday, this is also considerably below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability. So more arguments for the doves at the ECB although the amount of stimulus in the system is already substantial and while central bankers want to keep markets happy they also seem wary of additional action, especially as monetary policy alone can’t fix the Eurozone’s problems.

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Manufacturing: We expect shipments, due today, to tumble 1.5% m/m in August after the 1.7% gain in July. A 3.6% plunge in exports values provides a compelling reason to forecast a pull-back in manufacturing shipments during August.
US Industrial Production: September industrial production data is out Friday and we expect a 0.2% (median -0.2%) headline decline for the month which follows a 0.4% decline in August. This would bring capacity utilization down to 77.3% from 77.6% in August. The September employment report was weak and we saw declines in hours worked as well as employment in both manufacturing and mining which will likely weigh on the release.
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The first release on Michigan Sentiment is out on Friday and should reveal a headline increase to 89.0 (median 88.4) from 87.2 in September. The already released IBD/TIPP poll for October improved to 47.3 from 42.0 in September and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort survey is poised to average 45.0 for the month.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

EURUSD Analysis

October 16, 2015 Forex Analysis

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD sold off in the wake of mixed U.S. data that highlighted a 40 year low in U.S. jobless claims, slightly better core CPI reading, and a small improvement in the Empire State index. The EURUSD market sell off yesterday was a standard knee jerk reaction to the headline positive jobless claims, which saw renewed interest in buying the USD. Technically, the sell off was expected, as momentum indicators have been signaling that buying interest in the EURUSD has been slowing with the stochastic oscillator reading as overextended. Price now sits around the 1.1370′s, and I expect this area to hold, unless today’s U.S. release of the UoM Consumer Sentiment comes in above expectations. The 1.1370′s also happens to be the 38.2% Fibo from the July low (1.0808) – August High (1.1713), so I would expect price support around current levels. My conclusion for the short term trader is to add long positions above 1.1370 for targets between the 1.1460′s and 1.1560′s.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Analysis for 10.15.2015

October 15, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 10.15.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD daily price is currently testing the upper end of my predicted price path range (1.1090 – 1.1460). Ideally, a solid close above the 260 period SMA (1 year moving average) could indicate a possible trend reversal on the EURUSD. The next major daily resistance is now at 1.1560, however there still remains the possibility of a failed upward break that could shift the control back to the short sellers for a retest of the 1.1340′s , 1.1280′s and the 1.1090′s in extension. From a technical standpoint the EURUSD continues to look overextended, the technical trader should be reminded that just because the stochastic oscillator is in overextended territory that does not indicate an immediate fall in price, on the contrary, it is not uncommon that in a strong uptrend that an oscillator could remain overextended while price continues to advanced. My conclusion for short term traders is to add long positions on dips for targets between the 1.1460’s and 1.1560’s.

In the event that the ECB can not meet its inflation objective, the European Central Bank may make a move to extend QE, according to the Bank of Spain deputy governor Restoy.

Crude overnight hit near $45.90, down from yesterday’s $46.91 peak , crude moved lower after the close on Wednesday, as the API reported a huge 9.3 mln bbl weekly stock build, the largest in six-months. Some of the inventory rise was attributed to falling refinery operating rates, as API reported a 5 mln bbl fall in gasoline supplies for the latest week.

Stock markets have been moving higher as weak economic data continues to hit the news wires, with U.S. negative data on ex-auto retail sales and PPI, a deterioration of Japanese manufactures, and the unexpected dip in Australian employment all giving some relief for stock investors since it adds to the possibility of a delay in a U.S. interest rate raise, while increasing the risk that the ECB will proceed with additional QE in order to boast the Eurozone.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The EUR fell following the mix of data, which revealed a 40-plus year low in jobless claims, a slightly hotter core CPI reading, and an improvement, though less than expected in the Empire State index headline.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Employment Change: Australian employment had an unexpected dip coming in at -5.1k while it was expected to come in at 7.2k.

• USD Consumer price Index: CPI sank 0.2% in Sep, in line with median -0.2%; core +0.2%, above med 0.1%. There were no revisions to August which posted a 0.1% headline decline, with the core rate edging up 0.1%. On an annual basis, the headline index was unchanged versus 0.2% y/y, while the ex-food and energy component rose to a 1.9% y/y from 1.8% y/y. Energy prices skidded another 4.7% following a 2.0% decline in August. Transportation costs dropped 2.3% from -1.3%. Food/beverage prices edged up 0.4% from 0.2%. Services costs rose 0.2% from 0.1%. Housing were up 0.3% from 0.2%. Apparel slipped 0.3%, reversing the 0.3% gain in August. Commodities were down 0.8% from -0.4%. Tobacco prices declined 0.1% following a 0.5% gain in August.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims fell 7k to 255k in the week ended October 10, matching the lowest since 1973.from a revised 262k in the prior week (was 263k). That brought the 4-week moving average to 265.0k from 267.25k (revised from 267.50k). Continuing claims fell 50k to 2,158k in the October 3 week, versus a revised 2,208k (was 2,204k), the lowest since December, 1973.

• USD Empire State Index: NY Empire State index rebounded to -11.36 in Oct, below median -8.0 vs -14.7.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”