MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 10.27.2015

October 27, 2015 Forex Analysis

FX News Today

Greek bailout payment delayed, Greece is once again behind in the implementation of the agreed reforms and so far only 14 of the 48 “milestones” have been implemented. A delay of the reform plan and the payout likely also means a delay in the reform of the banking and finance system, including the recapitalization of banks.

Commodities were on the defensive, but the CAD was range bound near 1.3160 since the open. The lack of price action came as oil prices were steady near $43.5 – $44.00 and as the risk backdrop remains quiet.

Gold been relatively steady, following last week’s dollar rally inspired sell-off. Gold traded near the two-week low under of $1,160/ounce on Friday, and currently trades at $1165. Copper meanwhile, topped out at $2.381/lb earlier, and have since fallen back to $2.351, with softer U.S. home sales data weighing. Copper remains up on the session.

USDJPY given back some gains, the pair has gained considerable ground since last week, as the dovish ECB and the aggressive PBoC combined to rally the dollar broadly. With the China rate cut having many market players up the BoJ’s ante to add to QE this week, USD-JPY gains may well hold.

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. Gross Domestic Product: U.K. GDP numbers for Q3, with the quarterly growth rate expected to slow to 0.6% (med same) from 0.7%.

• USD Durable Goods Orders: September durable goods data is out today and should reveal a 0.8% (median -1.0%) decline for orders on the month with shipments unchanged and inventories growing by 0.1%. This compares to respective August figures of -2.3% for orders, -0.2% for shipments and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with analyst forecast would leave the I/S ratio for the month at 1.66 from 1.65 in both August and July.

• USD Consumer Confidence: October Consumer Confidence is out today and should reveal a 104.0 (median 102.8) headline, up from 103.0 in September and 101.3 in August. Other confidence measures have improved in October with Michigan Sentiment rising to 92.1 from 87.2 and the IBD/TIPP Poll rising to 47.3 from 42.0.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmuta Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

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ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD for 10.26.2015

October 26, 2015 Forex Analysis

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday. No changes are expected at this week’s FOMC meeting, especially after China’s rate cut and further QE comments from the ECB last week. The markets are not pricing in much chance for hike until perhaps after March. If Fed policymakers were worried about growth and prices at last month’s meeting, they can not be encouraged by the recent downbeat developments about global growth. The firming in the dollar will only make it more difficult for the FED Committee to be confident in meeting its price mandate anytime soon too, which likely rules out action at the December meeting. Economic data this week will show an economy that continues to expand, but at a slower pace in Q3 as the Advance Q3 GDP release is seen slowing to a 1.7% pace from the 3.9% growth rate in Q2. Another weak durable orders report is projected: September orders are seen falling 1.0% after the 2.3% drop in August. The ECI will accelerate to a 0.6% growth rate in Q3, according to the survey median, from the 0.2% gain in Q2.

• Europe: A heavy data week in the Eurozone that will focus on October confidence readings and preliminary inflation numbers. PMI readings came in better than expected, which means there is some room for upside surprises. French and Italian PPI, German import prices, German retail sales, French consumer spending and Italian business confidence. The German Ifo Business Climate (Monday) is seen falling to 108.1 (median 107.8) from 108.5, led by a drop in the current conditions indicator following the slump in orders. Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence (Thursday) meanwhile is expected to ease slightly to 105.3 (median 105.1) from 105.6 following the mixed leads from better than expected PMI reading and the marked drop in the preliminary consumer confidence figure. The latter is likely to be followed by another decline in German GfK Consumer Confidence to 9.4 (median same) from 9.6.

• United Kingdom: This weeks U.K. data brings the October CBI industrial trends survey (Monday), the first estimate of Q3 GDP (Tuesday), the monthly batch of BoE lending data (Thursday), the CBI distributive sales survey (also Thursday), and, finally, the October Gfk consumer confidence survey (Friday). The main market focus will be clearer picture of moderate growth in Q3, strong mortgage lending and rising lending to businesses, along with an uptick in consumer confidence. It is also anticipate that the CBI surveys will show some moderation, correcting in the case of the sales sector poll following a very strong number in September.

• Japan: Japan month end data could set up the for the BoJ to consider its next QQE stimulus on Friday, following the ECB and PBoC rate cuts. Bank of Japan data this week includes, retail sales, personal income and consumption, and employment data. September services PPI (Tuesday) is expected to ease to 0.6% y/y from 0.7%. September retail sales (Wednesday) are forecast to fall to 1.0% y/y from the prior 1.8% for large retailers, and dip to 0.5% y/y from 0.8% for total retail sales. The balance of the calendar comes on Friday, and includes September national CPI, expected to fall to -0.1% y/y from 0.2% on a headline basis, and to -0.3% y/y from -0.1% on a core basis. October Tokyo CPI is seen unchanged at -0.1% y/y for headline, and unchanged at -0.2% for the core reading. September unemployment is seen steady at 3.4%, as is the job offers/seekers ratio at 1.23. September personal income is forecast at 1.0% y/y from 2.2% previously, with PCE expected to fall to 1.0% y/y from 2.9% in August. September housing starts are penciled in at a 4.0% y/y rise, from 8.8% in August. September construction orders are also due. The BoJ meets Friday, and following China’s lead last week, it’s expected that the Bank to increase its prior JPY 80 tln QE efforts to JPY 100 tln, taking the monetary base target to JPY 345 tln from JPY 325 tln.

• China: China’s calendar is light, with just September leading indicators set for Thursday.

• Australia: Australia’s calendar of economic data this week. The Q3 CPI (Tuesday) is seen expanding at a 0.6% pace (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% growth rate in Q2. The Q3 PPI (Thursday) is expected to gain 0.2% (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% gain in Q2. Trade prices (Wednesday) are expected to reveal a 0.8% gain (q/q, sa) for Q3 import prices and a 0.8% increase in import prices. There are no speakers from the RBA this week. The RBA meets on November 3, and its expected no change to the current 2.00% policy setting.

• New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has the RBNZ announcement (Thursday). It is a close call between no change and a cut, but its expected a 25 basis point reduction to 2.50% as the bank continues to lean against strong external headwinds. The trade deficit (Wednesday) is projected to narrow to -NZ$1.000 bln in September from -NZ$1.035 bln in August.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Analysis for 10.23.2015

October 23, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 10.23.2015

ECB Prepares Ground For December Easing. The ECB did what markets wanted and laid the groundwork for further easing measures in December. The question seems to be not if, but which measures the central bank can take to bring inflation back towards 2%, with the possibility of a deposit rate back on the table. Yields came down and the curve flattened from the short end, on the indication that the cut off point for negative yields under the QE program will be lowered further. The reliance of markets on ECB measures is increasing and what were initially exceptional measures becomes quickly the new normal.

EUR pairs are trending lower. Over the last five days euro has lost some ground across the board but the single currency has also been losing ground over the last month especially against the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD). In this report we will take a look at euro performance against them to reveal the concerted sell off in the currency. We will also identify the major support and resistance levels in these markets.

EURAUD, Daily

After the parabolic move in August EURAUD has been in a distribution phase and moved sideways. This is typical after an uptrend. Lately the pair has created lower highs and yesterday’s surprise from Mario Draghi caused the price to break below the rising trendline that has been in place since April this year. At the time of writing price is trading between a weekly pivotal high from December last year (1.5332) and August this year (1.5301) while July weekly high is just below at 1.5277. The 100 day SMA coincides with this and is currently at 1.5256. EURAUD is near major support level but the recent pivotal low from October 12^th at 1.5400 and the sideways move that followed together with the further easing promises from the ECB could keep the market in a sell the rallies mode. Keep monitoring price action at resistance levels for momentum reversal signals. Price action at resistance levels will tell us how if the sentiment will stay euro negative. The 1.4991 – 1.5154 support bracket looks like a potential reversal point and could therefore work as a short target.

EURCAD, Daily

Just like EUR has been losing value against the AUD the other commodity currency CAD has been favoured by the markets over the last few weeks. This happened as EURCAD started to move sideways after a strong uptrend and an exhaustion move took place at the end of August. This week the pair tried to get back inside the rising regression channel but failed. The failure was helped by the Draghi speech and price has since fallen below the October 7^th pivotal low. The June 4^th and July 10^th highs at 1.1460 and 1.4253 coincide roughly with a 100% Fibonacci extension level at 1.4195. The pair is trading just below a 1.4604 resistance which could turn it towards 1.4442 target. Eventually the 100% Fibonacci level at 1.4191 should come into play should the price advances be rejected at the resistance levels. I’ve left the Fibonacci extension levels off the chart to improve readability.

EURNZD, Daily

The third commodity currency NZD has strengthened 7.36% on average against all the currencies since the latter half of the September while EURNZD has lost 8.45% during the same period. EURNZD has been trending lower since it broke below 1.7500 support in September and has now moved below 100 day SMA. The pair is approaching 1.6054 level that supported price in June and is moving below the descending regression channel. In the weekly picture this same level coincides roughly with the weekly lower Bollinger Bands while a cluster of long term moving averages are within the 1.5 and 2 SD bands. All three (50 period, 100 period and 200 period) weekly averages are clustered between 1.5809 and 1.5974. The weekly Stochastics (7) are well into the oversold zone. Due to several technical factors in the proximity (weekly timeframe) the majority of the down move could be now behind us. The price is however still trending lower which suggests that there could be opportunities in the short side if we wait patiently for rallies to find their exhaustion points. Look for rally failures at resistance levels with a target at 1.6050 region.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

EURJPY Analysis for 10.23.2015

October 23, 2015 Forex Analysis

The 133.42 – 134.05 target hit in EURJPY. I pointed out in my October 15th analysis how EURJPY failed to challenge the channel top and fell down from it. My view at the time was that it was too late to short the pair as it was trading near support levels. Therefore, I suggested that we should sell the rallies. I wrote at the time: looks like there could be some short opportunities should the market rally first. Now that the market has dropped down to 137.35 support it is too late to be an aggressive seller but the sell opportunities could be found at or near 136.33 resistance (if momentum reversal signals confirm the idea) while the support range at 133.42 – 134.05 is likely to be an area to attract buyers and would therefore make sense as a target level for short trades.

Market rallied from the support, hit the 136.33 resistance and fell down to the target range suggested in the report. Currently the pair is trading inside my target range and is about to create a bullish pin bar in 4h chart. This suggests to me that it is time to close the short trade and bank the profits. The trade brought over 230 pips profit to our traders.

Join me next Tuesday at 12:30 GMT (follow the link below) to a Live Analysis Webinar and I will teach you how to study the price charts and help you to find trades like this. The webinar is free so you can bring your friends too!

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 10.23.2015

October 23, 2015 Forex Analysis

FX News Today

The EURUSD pair dropped nearly 240 pips yesterday while EU stock markets jumped on the comments from the ECB president Mario Draghi that the European Central Bank is “committed to further easing”. Traders took this comment as a clue that the ECB is not happy with having a strong currency in the current Eurozone economic environment. The EURUSD Asia session reached a low at 1.1072. EURJPY dropped into a multi-week low, and the EURGBP has broken its 100-day moving average at 0.7213, trading on the downside side of this average for the first time since late summer. Since it is now clear that the ECB is fearful of a stronger EUR, the EUR is likely to stay under general pressure. However, the EURUSD price may bounce a bit before any test of 1.1000 round number.

The ECB’S comments yesterday sparked a rally on stock markets that continued in both Asia and U.S. stock markets. Further gains in Europe stock markets looks likely as the ECB prepares for additional easing measures.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Market PMI: French, German Composite PMIs surprise on the upside. France reported a slight improvement in the manufacturing PMI to 50.7 from 50.6 and a rise in the services reading to 52.3 from 51.9. Germany meanwhile saw a slight decline in the manufacturing number to 51.6 from 52.3, but a jump in the services reading to 55.2 from 54.2. The latter left the composite at 54.5 up from 54.1 in September. In France the composite improved to 52.3 from 51.9, indicating acceleration in overall economic activity against expectations for declines in both countries.

• CAD Consumer Price Index: It’s expected CPI to expand at a 1.2% y/y pace in September, a slowdown from the 1.3% y/y clip in July and August. CPI is seen as flat on a month comparable basis in September after the identical flat reading in August. Gas prices plunged 7.5% in September compared to August, which is expected to weigh on month comparable CPI. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen rising 0.3% in September, a bit stronger than the usual 0.2% gain seen during the month as currency weakness provides and extra boost. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate in September following the 2.1% clip in August. The expected core CPI figure would, of course, leave the measure at the BoC’s 2.0% midpoint. However, Governor Poloz has maintained that run-up is transitory and not reflective of a tightening in supply conditions.

• USD Market Manufacturing PMI: Consensus calls for a 52.8 number vs the previous 53.1. The macro data continues to face headwinds from an inventory overhang and a petro-sector recession, even though housing, the labor market, and real consumer spending continue to improve.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

ECB Committed to further easing

October 22, 2015 Forex Analysis

EURUSD is down 1.16% at the time of writing after Draghi reaffirms ECB commitment to further easing. ECB will no longer “wait and see” but “work and assess”, according to Draghi, who said there was a rich discussion on the potential measures the ECB could take and that the relevant committees have been tasked to examine the pros and cons of the individual measures.

Draghi voiced his concern over growth prospects: “Concerns over growth prospects in emerging markets and possible repercussions for the economy from developments in commodity markets signal downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation. The degree of monetary-policy accommodation will need to be reviewed at our December meeting when new macroeconomic projections will be available.” The message was clear that there should be further easing ahead this year. This was quickly reflected in price as EUR was sold against all the major currencies.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

EURUSD Analysis for 10.22.2015

October 22, 2015 Forex Analysis

EURUSD, 240 min

The sideways move over the last three days has been a reflection of both market participants’ carefulness ahead of ECB meeting and the fact that the pair is trading between support and resistance levels. ECB leaders gather today in Malta and Mario Draghi will be speaking on European economy. We do not expect the ECB to announce new QE measures today. This expectation is in line with the analyst consensus. Inflation is below ECB target but Draghi has expressed satisfaction on increased lending in the Euro area. This suggests no need for new QE measures.

At the time of writing EURUSD is trading at a support created by previous pivot highs and 50% Fibonacci retracement. The 100 period SMA coincides with this support while the Stochastics Oscillator points to the pair being oversold in both the 4h and daily time frame. The last week’s bearish pin bar together with the upper weekly Bollinger Bands has been limiting the moves to the upside. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.1295 and 1.1388. The support can be found at 1.1260, a 61.8% Fibonacci level which coincides with 50 day SMA. Look for a move higher towards the 1.1388 resistance if no new QE promises or measures are introduced.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 10.22.2015

October 22, 2015 Forex Analysis

FX News Today

French business confidence mixed, with the overall headline number unexpectedly rising to 101 from 100, but manufacturing confidence falling to 103 from 104 and the production outlook indicator slumping to 2 in October, while the September reading was revised down to 5 from 7 reported initially. The own company production outlook held up better, with the reading declining only slightly to 13 from 14 in the previous month, highlighting that concerns about global developments and the slowdown in emerging markets rather than actual weakness at company level are the main factors.

Bank of Canada Constructive on Growth as Forces Awaken. The Bank of Canada maintained the 0.50% setting for the overnight rate target, matching widespread expectations. While the growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were trimmed, the outlook remains constructive as the projected recovery in Canada’s economy takes hold. The return to full capacity was moved ahead to mid-2017 but Governor Poloz explained that the shift was within the range anticipated in July. The bank is comfortable with the current state of policy and the economy, content to remain on the sidelines as the forces unleashed by 50 basis points in rate cuts in the first half of this year continue to ease the adjustment to lower oil and commodity prices.

BoC Poloz praised the constructive evolution of the economy, answering a question on just how high the debt to income ratio can go. He noted that Canada does not have much experience with ratios this high, but that other countries run higher ratios (not that he’s saying higher ratios are ok, he added). But he is pleased the Bank identified the right forces in the economy when things were uncertain in January. Those forces continue to growth, he noted, and the constructive evolution gets the economy back to better growth. On the CAD, he said the currency has been moving roughly in-line with the terms of trade (ToT), which it has done historically. He noted that “roughly” comes with lots of advisement, as the zone around ToT movements is not trivial. Further solidifying his status as one of the most entertaining of the current crop of central bankers, he likened these moves to walking a dog with a stretchy leash — you get footprints (from the dog) that are not straight like a railroad track. His Q&A has ended.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rates Decision: ECB seen on hold, focus on presser. We expect the central bank to stay on hold today, as does the overwhelming majority of analysts in the latest Bloomberg survey, with only one expecting further easing measures already this week. This does not mean that an extension or expansion of the QE program will be off the table however and Draghi’s comments at the press conference will likely strike a fine balance between justifying the current wait and see stance and assuring markets that the ECB is ready and willing to act again if necessary. Comments suggest that the low inflation environment is once again becoming a concern and December, when the updated set of economic projections is due, will become a major focal point for a decision on additional steps.
US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of October 17 is out today and should reveal an increase to 264k (median 265k) from 255k last week. We expect the average for October to be 270k from 269k in September. This supports our call for a 190k employment headline which would follow a 142k increase in September.
US Existing Home Sales: September existing home sales data today should reveal a 1.7% increase to a 5.400 mln (median 5.350 mln) headline following a 5.310 mln August figure and 5.580 mln in July which set a high back to 2007. Other housing measures are coming in mixed for the month with the NAHB holding steady at 61 in September, starts rising to 1.206 mln but permits slowing to 1.103 mln

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 10.21.2015

October 21, 2015October 21, 2015 Forex Analysis

FX News Today

Japan’s trade deficit narrowed 88.1% y/y to 114.5 bln JPY from a revised -569.4 bln JPY (was -569.7 bln JPY). Imports dropped 11.1% y/y, while exports edged up 0.6% y/y. The latter was the slowest pace in more than a year as shipments around Asia softened, with those to China dropping 3.5%. Exports to the U.S. were strong, however, up more than 10%, largely on autos and pharmaceuticals. On the month the deficit widened 4.8% with exports down 1.7% for a third straight decline, while imports fell 1.9%, a second consecutive monthly slide. The Nikkei is higher on the day as the trade data increases hopes for more stimulus.

Bund futures already recovered opening losses and are rising in tandem with Gilts and stock markets. Volatility has returned ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow. Japanese trade numbers boosted hopes of further stimulus in Japan and reminded European markets that even if the ECB continues to sit on the fence tomorrow, this doesn’t mean the end for an expansion of the QE program. Most analysts expect Draghi to announce a move in December.

Canada’s election and the economy: The liberal majority victory provides some solace to a market that was prepared for a minority government and all the lack of certainty that vote by vote coalition gathering brings. Of course, a Trudeau majority victory brings a greater tolerance for Federal deficits. Harper ran deficits after 2009′s global upheaval but had been focused on bringing finances back to balance. Trudeau, in contrast, campaigned on running modest (C$10 bln) deficits for the next three years to finance infrastructure projects in a bid to boost Canada’s flagging economy. We would point out that the extended time lag between approval and actual construction typically precludes infrastructure “investment” from having any impact on the economy in the near-term. Meanwhile, Trudeau plans to fund tax cuts for middle income earners by raising taxes on the top 1%. As for the corporate tax rate, Trudeau said during the campaign that the current 15% is “fine.”

Main Macro Events Today

Bank of Canada Rates Decision: No change is expectedto the 0.50% rate setting in today’s announcement. Economic data has been consistent with a return to GDP growth in Q3 after the oil price shock left back to back erosion in Q1 and Q2. The Bank’s Q3 GDP estimate of 1.5% is destined for a substantial upward revision (we see a 3.0% gain) in the Monetary Policy Report. But reduced global and U.S. growth prospects promise to trim the 2.3% estimate for 2016 GDP (we see 2.2%). Hence, we expect the growth and inflation outlook to back expectations for no change in rates for an extended period.

BOE’s Governor Carney speech. In today’s Speech Carney will comment on how Britain’s EU membership will impact the Bank of England’s ability to manage the economy and protect the banking sector.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Analysis for 10.21.2015

October 21, 2015October 21, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 10.21.2015

EURAUD, Daily

EURAUD Daily, the AUD has given back some recent gains against the majors over the last few trading sessions, leaving the outlook for the AUD to continue a narrow trade range as concerns about inflation subside, while commodities seek out a bottom. Technically, the Daily EURAUD observations include: bearish 10,50 SMA crossover spotted, price trades within a downward slopping trend channel, and stochastic oscillator indicates positive upward momentum. My conclusion for the Daily supports long positions with a price target near the 1.5840 inside swing area.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”