Signals Articles

UK Services PMI – Another weak number

Forex Analysis
2016-05-05_11-59-27

GBPUSD, Daily    

UK Services PMI growth the weakest in over three years: This is a full set of three big misses in the three PMI surveys for April. The headline services number fell to 52.3, the lowest level since February 2013, and well off both the median for 53.5 and the 53.7 reading in the previous month. The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dove to a contractionary 49.2 reading, the weakest level seen since February 2013, and the construction PMI fell to its weakest level since June 2013. The composite PMI worked out at 51.9, down from 53.6 in March. Markit estimates that the UK GDP fell to just 0.1% q/q growth in the three months to April, down from 0.4% growth in Q1. Markit notes that the early timing of Easter this may have affected the service sector, but also notes that “April also saw an increase in the number of companies reporting that uncertainty about the EU referendum caused customers to hold back on purchases,” which is exacerbating already shaky demand amid fiscal tightening and global uncertainties.

Technically, GBPUSD has come off its 2016 highs, with support at 1.4418 and 1.4283 (50 DMA) and resistance at the recent 2016 high at 1.4667 and 1.4700.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US oil production at lowest levels since September 2014

Forex Analysis
oil

Crude Oil, 240 min

Crude oil rallied over 4% after reversing at 43.22 in yesterday’s trading. Recent news article from Reuters associates the move higher with a huge wildfire in Canada’s oil sands area while fighting in Libya threatens the North African output. Traders said that WTI prices were driven up by uncontrolled wildfires in Canada that disrupted oil production in the province of Alberta. This morning Kuwait News Agency reports that US oil production drops to lowest level since Sept 2014, sinking by more than 100k barrels a day in the week up to April 29th.

Last three month’s rally has taken the price of crude oil (US Oil) to levels it tried to find support in January – March 2015 period. Price has trended higher strongly in the daily timeframe with some lack of momentum creeping in lately. However, as long as price trends higher it makes sense to look for opportunities in the direction of the trend. Yesterday’s trading created a narrow range candle which at a support indicates that prices are likely to move higher but there’s another narrow range candle (a Doji) created on April 29th which could mean prices are likely to range a while before it’s able to break into new highs.

Should the market create a range it could trace back to the recent lows. I’m therefore looking for long entry signals inside my Buy Area at $43.20 – $44.00 with Target 1 at $45.00 – $45.50 and Target 2 at $46 – $46.70. The area between $45.20 and $46.20 could be a challenge for the bulls and therefore cause intra-day volatility. However the trend is higher in the daily timeframe and should support the buyers’ efforts in the long run. This means that those looking for swing trades might want to look for moves to a Target 3 in $50 – $51 range.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD finding support at April 4th high

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-05-04_14-22-18

EURUSD, 60 min

EURUSD created a bearish shooting star candle in yesterday’s trading. The day was rather volatile with the pair running up by X% and then closing below the opening price and near the session lows. Today we’ve seen some sideways action which is typical after market moves significantly on the day before. EURUSD has also found support from the proximity of April 4th high at 1.1465. Today’s low at the time of writing has been 1.1469. Market participants are also waiting for the US employment numbers for April from ADP which are due to be released at 12:15 GMT. No major change is expected to March numbers.

In the hourly chart the EURUSD pair can be seen in a descending channel but as mentioned, the 1.1465 support is not that far and has attracted buyers while it has also kept the bears in check. I expect that traders will tread carefully until the ADP number is out even though no major change is expected. I’m seeing resistance at 1.1500 and 1.1511 with the nearest support at 1.1465. The 4h chart has now a doji candle which suggests the downside momentum has faded and the pair could try to retrace some of yesterday’s losses. However, the 1.1532 to 1.1570 should be a challenge for the bulls and this Sell Area has potential to turn the pair down again. We will follow the price action to see if market supplies us with sell signals. Should this happen my target one is at 1.1480 and target two at 1.1410.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US PMI held steady while ISM numbers fell

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-05-02_17-41-36

EURUSD, Daily

US Markit manufacturing PMI (final) held steady at 50.8 in April compared to the flash reading (lowest since September 2009), but down from the 51.5 final March print. The final PMI output index also held steady at 50.3 in April vs the flash reading, but down from final March 51.2. The final April employment index settled unchanged vs the flash of 50.2, though down from the 52.2 final March print. Overall, not very compelling, though focus will shift to ISM and construction data shortly.

At the same time US manufacturing ISM fell to 50.8 in April from 51.8 in March. The prices index surged to 59.0 in April from 51.5 in March. New orders eroded to 55.8 in April from 58.3 in March. While the pull-back in the total index was slightly more pronounced than anticipated (median was 51.3), the result was largely as-expected.

US construction spending rose 0.3% in March versus consensus forecasts of a 0.5% gain. February data however, was revised sharply higher to up 1.0% to from -0.5%. The small March miss can be attributed to slower housing starts reported for March.

EURUSD reacted higher at first but has since retraced some of its gains. The nearest 4h support and resistance levels are at 1.1481 and 1.1534 with the next support at 1.1465 (coincides with 0.236 retracement) and 1.1398. EURUSD reaction after the data could lead to market testing the nearest supports before finding direction again. This price action is taking place outside the upper daily Bollinger bands which could mean going gets tougher for the bulls. At the same time however, there is support in the weekly charts around 1.1460 (weekly highs) and could mean that Euro bears are careful with their short positioning and leave more room for the bulls to bid prices higher.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURAUD nearing a resistance

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-05-02_13-55-53

EURAUD, 60 min

Eurozone Apr manufacturing PMI released earlier today revised up to 105.7 from 105.5 reported initially and versus 105.6 in the previous month. German and French PMIs were actually revised slightly down with the final release, but the Italian PMI jumped to 53.9 from 53.5 against expectations for a decline in confidence. Further confirmation then that the Eurozone recovery is continuing but at a very modest pace and with core countries remaining weak. Especially France continues to underperform despite the stellar GDP result for the first quarter.

EURAUD has touched an area of resistance at 1.5060 – 1.5200 that has seen the sellers to emerge in the past. At the same time the daily Stochastics is getting overbought. In the 60 min chart price action is looking bearish as the latest reactionary high is lower than the one before. Therefore the pair testing a 0.236 Fibonacci level that coincides with the 30 period SMA and lower Bollinger Bands has now a high significance. If buyers emerge now there is still a chance that price could move higher. However, the recent lower high makes it less likely that the support will hold. If the level holds we could see a new attempt on today’s highs but if the support breaks we have a bearish intraday setup. If price moves below 0.236 Fibonacci level (at 1.5039) on a closing basis I will be looking for sell signals at or inside my Sell Area of 1.5053 – 1.5096 with Target 1 at 1.4997 – 1.5018 and Target 2 at 1.4910 – 1.4952. Please, remember that you should always manage your risks. Do not trade based on our analysis unless your own analysis agrees with it and you know how to manage your risks professionally. Please, attend the webinars if you have troubles in understanding how you should take advantage of the analysis that we provide.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US March personal income rose 0.4%

Forex Analysis
EURUSD

EURUSD, Daily

US March personal income rose 0.4% while spending increased 0.1%. The 0.1% increase in February income was revised to up 0.2%, while the 0.1% spending rise in January was upped to 0.2%. Income has been up for 12 straight month, and spending has increased 14 consecutive months. The headline chain price index rose 0.1% versus the 0.1% decline in February, and is up 0.8% y/y. The core rate increased 0.1% versus 0.2% previously. Disposable income rose 0.4% versus up 0.1% in February, while the savings rate increased to 5.4% vs 5.1% previously.

EURUSD has been trading higher and is nearing the April highs at 1.1465. This area coincides with the upper Bollinger bands while the up move has lifted the Stochastics almost to overbought territory. Since November 2015 this area has been too much for the Euro bulls and moves into this area have been unsustainable. It remains to be seen what the market reactions will be on this time. Only then we can tell if it’s likely that the markets will take to EURUSD down again. The nearest daily resistance levels are at 1.1465 and 1.1495 while the nearest daily support levels are at 1.1218 and 1.1143.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD Analysis for 04.28.2016

Forex Analysis
GBPUSD T1 hit

GBPUSD 60 min. I wrote earlier today that I was looking for sell signals at my sell area at 1.4598 – 1.4618 with a Target 1 between 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci levels at 1.4530 and 1.4547 as GBPUSD hit a resistance at 1.4619 after it moved outside a descending price channel and as the reaction lower confirmed the market participants’ willingness to sell near the resistance.

The pair rallied to my Sell Area, then turned and has now hit the Target 1 level. 

GBP 240 chart

GBPUSD 240 min. In the 4h chart the pair is still inside a rising channel. Now we have price (in 15 min chart) turning higher again after it found support from my Target 1. The next significant support level is at 1.4473 which coincides with the channel low and 30 period moving average. In addition, the lower Bollinger Bands are in the proximity of this level adding to it’s relevance. The resistance levels are at 1.4639 and 1.4670.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD reacting lower from resistance

Forex Analysis
GBP

GBPUSD 240 min

The pair hit a resistance at 1.4619 after it moved outside a descending price channel. The reaction lower confirmed the market participants’ willingness to sell near the resistance while Stochastic Oscillator (7,3,3) was edging closer to the overbought level. This could provide us with an intraday move of approximately 50 pips if market rallies a little first.

I am looking for sell signals at my sell area at 1.4598 – 1.4618 with a Target 1 between 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci levels at 1.4530 and 1.4547.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK GDP Slows in first Quarter

Forex Analysis
2016-04-27_12-05-57

 

GBPUSD, 1hr   

The UK economy grew less during the first quarter of 2016 but in line with expectations. First quarter GDP growth was 0.4% overall. Services output was the star (unsurprisingly) with an increase of 0.6%, however, output in Production fell by 0.4%, Construction output slipped by 0.9% and Agriculture dropped by 0.1%.  Additionally 2015 fourth quarter growth was revised higher to 0.6% from 0.5%.

Although manufacturing remains poor and Brexit remains ever present, for now the figures were received rather positively for sterling. Following an initial sell off earlier; GBPUSD rose to 1.4580 and GBPJPY to 162.20, EURGBP remains rather moribund around 0.7755.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Australia – Where has the inflation gone?

Forex Analysis
2016-04-27_10-41-33

AUD/USD, Daily    

The Aussie dollar dove on CPI data:  Australian inflation tumbled to 1.3% y/y in March from 1.7% in the previous month, with the q/q figure unexpectedly turning negative for the first time since 2008, falling to -0.2%. The Aussie is nursing over  1.5% loss to the USD and is down by 1.7% versus the yen, which registers the biggest movement out of the currencies we track. The data has catalyzed speculation that the RBA will be forced to consider at rate cut at its May-3 policy meeting. AUD-USD clocked a nine-day low at 0.7623.

Technically, the 23.6 Fib level and Psychological 0.7600 area has held so far today, 0.7510 has 50 DMA and lower Bollinger band and the longer term daily support and 38.2 Fib sit at 0.7450. Upside resistance at the round numbers 0.7700 and 0.7800.

All eyes on the FOMC today, BOJ tomorrow and the RBA next Tuesday (May 3rd), an extremely interesting few days ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.