Signals Articles

US March personal income rose 0.4%

Forex Analysis
EURUSD

EURUSD, Daily

US March personal income rose 0.4% while spending increased 0.1%. The 0.1% increase in February income was revised to up 0.2%, while the 0.1% spending rise in January was upped to 0.2%. Income has been up for 12 straight month, and spending has increased 14 consecutive months. The headline chain price index rose 0.1% versus the 0.1% decline in February, and is up 0.8% y/y. The core rate increased 0.1% versus 0.2% previously. Disposable income rose 0.4% versus up 0.1% in February, while the savings rate increased to 5.4% vs 5.1% previously.

EURUSD has been trading higher and is nearing the April highs at 1.1465. This area coincides with the upper Bollinger bands while the up move has lifted the Stochastics almost to overbought territory. Since November 2015 this area has been too much for the Euro bulls and moves into this area have been unsustainable. It remains to be seen what the market reactions will be on this time. Only then we can tell if it’s likely that the markets will take to EURUSD down again. The nearest daily resistance levels are at 1.1465 and 1.1495 while the nearest daily support levels are at 1.1218 and 1.1143.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD Analysis for 04.28.2016

Forex Analysis
GBPUSD T1 hit

GBPUSD 60 min. I wrote earlier today that I was looking for sell signals at my sell area at 1.4598 – 1.4618 with a Target 1 between 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci levels at 1.4530 and 1.4547 as GBPUSD hit a resistance at 1.4619 after it moved outside a descending price channel and as the reaction lower confirmed the market participants’ willingness to sell near the resistance.

The pair rallied to my Sell Area, then turned and has now hit the Target 1 level. 

GBP 240 chart

GBPUSD 240 min. In the 4h chart the pair is still inside a rising channel. Now we have price (in 15 min chart) turning higher again after it found support from my Target 1. The next significant support level is at 1.4473 which coincides with the channel low and 30 period moving average. In addition, the lower Bollinger Bands are in the proximity of this level adding to it’s relevance. The resistance levels are at 1.4639 and 1.4670.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD reacting lower from resistance

Forex Analysis
GBP

GBPUSD 240 min

The pair hit a resistance at 1.4619 after it moved outside a descending price channel. The reaction lower confirmed the market participants’ willingness to sell near the resistance while Stochastic Oscillator (7,3,3) was edging closer to the overbought level. This could provide us with an intraday move of approximately 50 pips if market rallies a little first.

I am looking for sell signals at my sell area at 1.4598 – 1.4618 with a Target 1 between 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci levels at 1.4530 and 1.4547.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK GDP Slows in first Quarter

Forex Analysis
2016-04-27_12-05-57

 

GBPUSD, 1hr   

The UK economy grew less during the first quarter of 2016 but in line with expectations. First quarter GDP growth was 0.4% overall. Services output was the star (unsurprisingly) with an increase of 0.6%, however, output in Production fell by 0.4%, Construction output slipped by 0.9% and Agriculture dropped by 0.1%.  Additionally 2015 fourth quarter growth was revised higher to 0.6% from 0.5%.

Although manufacturing remains poor and Brexit remains ever present, for now the figures were received rather positively for sterling. Following an initial sell off earlier; GBPUSD rose to 1.4580 and GBPJPY to 162.20, EURGBP remains rather moribund around 0.7755.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Australia – Where has the inflation gone?

Forex Analysis
2016-04-27_10-41-33

AUD/USD, Daily    

The Aussie dollar dove on CPI data:  Australian inflation tumbled to 1.3% y/y in March from 1.7% in the previous month, with the q/q figure unexpectedly turning negative for the first time since 2008, falling to -0.2%. The Aussie is nursing over  1.5% loss to the USD and is down by 1.7% versus the yen, which registers the biggest movement out of the currencies we track. The data has catalyzed speculation that the RBA will be forced to consider at rate cut at its May-3 policy meeting. AUD-USD clocked a nine-day low at 0.7623.

Technically, the 23.6 Fib level and Psychological 0.7600 area has held so far today, 0.7510 has 50 DMA and lower Bollinger band and the longer term daily support and 38.2 Fib sit at 0.7450. Upside resistance at the round numbers 0.7700 and 0.7800.

All eyes on the FOMC today, BOJ tomorrow and the RBA next Tuesday (May 3rd), an extremely interesting few days ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

German import price inflation higher than expected

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-04-27_09-41-14

EURUSD, 240 min

German March import price inflation higher than expected, with the annual rate falling to -5.9% from -5.7% y/y in February, against a Bloomberg median of -6.2% y/y. Excluding energy prices, however, the picture is somewhat different, as the annual rate dropped sharply to -3.6% y/y from -2.8% y/y in February and compared to 2.2% y/y in July last year. The data show ongoing dis-inflation pressures from import prices, stemming not only from oil prices and subsequently strengthen Draghi’s push for additional easing last month.

There was no notable market reaction in EURUSD to the release. The pair is ranging between 0.38 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels after yesterday’s move to 1.1278 was rejected and price bounced higher from 30 period MA. Nearest significant support and resistance levels are at 1.1253 and 1.1340. Markets are likely to be in a wait and see mode until the FOMC rate decision. No change is expected and as there is no press conference the actual words in the Monetary Policy Statement released at 18:30 GMT will be scrutinized very closely.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Consumer Confidence – Also Disappoints

Forex Analysis
2016-04-26_17-03-01

GBPUSD, 1hr   

US Consumer confidence fell to 94.2 in April from 96.1 in March (was 96.2). The miss was more pronounced than expected (95.8). This also followed US Markit services flash PMI rose to 52.1 in April from a 51.3 final reading in March. But the employment index pulled back to 53.0 vs 54.0; the composite PMI rose to 51.7 vs 51.3; and the composite employment index sank to 52.5 vs 53.6, for the lowest reading since October. Overall not that impressive a start for the service sector in Q2, though the asset and FX markets remain focused on supply, oil and central bank meetings for now.

GBPUSD continued its rally from Friday trading to a 12 week high at 1.4635.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Durable Goods – Disappoint

Forex Analysis
2016-04-26_16-19-16

EURUSD, 1hr   

The U.S. durable goods report undershot assumptions due primarily to a weak round of equipment figures, alongside a small March durable orders rebound despite a defense orders surge with a slight drop ex-transportation, alongside the expected small shipments decline with a restrained inventory figure. We lowered our Q1 GDP growth forecast to a flat figure from 0.3% with a 6% (was 4%) contraction rate for real equipment spending, alongside an $11 (was $5) bln inventory subtraction. We expect a still-lofty $67 bln Q1 inventory accumulation rate that will weigh on Q2, where we now expect 2.0% (was 2.2%) GDP growth with a 4% (was 6%) bounce in equipment spending and a $20 bln inventory subtraction. We expect a flat March factory inventory figure with a 0.1% total business inventory rise, given today’s flat factory durable inventory figure. We assume a 0.1% March factory orders rise with a 0.5% factory shipments decline, given an assumed 0.5% nondurable shipments and orders drop.

EURUSD rallied higher from 1.12870 to 1.1334 and GBPUSD rallied from 1.4560 to an 11 week high at 1.4622.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

APPLE – No Longer a Growth Stock ?

Forex Analysis
2016-04-26_12-56-06

APPLE, Daily

We all have an opinion on Apple, one of the world’s largest corporations and most recognized brands, and they are loved and loathed in equal measure it seems.  They report their second quarter earnings today after the close of the New York stock exchange and the numbers are expected to be poor. It is likely to report its first year-over-year decline in iPhone sales since the product was launched in 2007.  The iPhone now accounts for over 65% of all Apple revenues and with sales of other products such as the iPad and MAC already slowing and Apple Watch seemingly being out sold by competitors the emphasis is more focused on the software and services platforms.

Apple TV was delayed last year, the tie up with IBM and Cisco to break in to the corporate market (along with the iPad Pro) seems to have stalled, the normal rally in the share price along with strong sales in the final quarter of 2015 did not materialize, and analysts are rather skeptical following poor first quarter earnings in January.

The charts are also telling a similar story. The share price closed yesterday at 104.92 – right on the lower Bollinger band of the Daily chart and the 38.2 Fib level, next support is at 104 (50 DMA) , 102.50 (50 Fib) and 100.00 (61.8 Fib and Psychological round number).

The Weekly chart looks equally bearish with the 20 MA and 50% Fib retracement offering support at 102. 53.

2016-04-26_13-01-25

On the upside 108 and 113 would need to be broken to reestablish the uptrend, with strong resistance at 118.

Let’s see how the numbers are received by the market today, before we take any action. There is often significant over reaction (both positive and negative) in the immediate aftermath of earnings announcements as we saw with Alphabet (Google) and Microsoft last week. Apple is always one to watch because of the sheer size of the company, its track record and the impact it can have on the overall US indices.  It is probably too early to be calling time on Apple as a growth stock, but time will tell.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Gold rallies could fail

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-04-25_15-46-27

Gold, 240 min

Weak dollar has raised the demand for the physical gold while the futures markets have been cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve policy FOMC statement on Wednesday. This has kept the gold bulls in check and the rally above $1270 on Thursday was quickly turned into a pretty sizeable and fast drop to the current levels where the price of gold has attracted some buying today. Now that ECB’s Mario Draghi didn’t bring new strong QE measures to the table in the last week’s meeting the Fed Chair Yellen has less pressure to refrain from raising the US rates. This should increase the probabilities of a US rate hike and therefore keep the lid on gold. However, Fed’s still not likely to hike rates before the latter part of year and even then only gradually. This could mean serious selling pressure on gold still waits a little longer. Also, the uncertainty related to negative rates, a new financial experiment should create some support for gold.

Technically the price of gold has been moving sideways between a $1202 – $1206 support area and a resistance at $1288. In the monthly chart gold has created two pin bars that signal supply and demand having been in a relative balance in March and April. Such indecisiveness  usually means that the price is turning lower after a move higher but now price didn’t drop after the first bearish pin bar which suggest that there is some support for on gold as well. In other words this market is undecided and could range more before settling to a directional trade. The very recent price action however seems to me short term bearish with Thursday’s candle forming a shooting star and price following lower on Friday. This indicates that traders are likely to sell rallies into resistances.

I’m therefore looking for sell signals in gold at or inside my sell area near 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels between $1244 and $1254 with Target 1 at: $1227 – $1238 and Target 2 at: $1190 – 1204.70. Using strict risk management is recommendable as usual. If you don’t know what to look for as trade signals or how to manage your trading risks professionally you are welcome join to my free webinars to learn more.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.