The Economic Week Ahead for 09.05.2016

September 5, 2016 Forex Analysis

Main Macro Events This Week

August U.S. nonfarm payroll report disappointed on multiple levels after the 151k headline increase came in below last week’s 180k median, while the unemployment rate held at 4.9% versus expectations for a dip to 4.8%. Moreover, the workweek and earnings underperformed too, though the boost in the labor force was actually encouraging. Nevertheless, there was little net shake up in Fed policy expectations versus last week and December remains the odds-on favorite over September for the next move this year.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will be brief this week following the long Labor Day weekend, resuming (Tuesday) with ISM Non-Manufacturing, expected to hold steady at 55.5 in August. The MBA mortgage market survey and JOLTS are up next (Wednesday), though neither will be of much consequence to the September FOMC. Initial jobless claims are forecast to ease another 3k to 260k for the September 3 week (Thursday), while consumer credit is set to rise $15.0 bln iln July vs $12.3 bln in June. Wholesale trade data rounds out the meager schedule (Friday) with sales likely to rise 0.2% and inventories seen unchanged for July. Fedspeak resumes with SF Fed dove Williams (Tuesday) set to discuss the economic outlook before the Hayek Group. KC Fed hawk George and Richmond Fed hawk Lacker will testify before the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday) from 10 ET. Boston Fed dove Rosengren will take part in a Chamber Breakfast and Economic Forecast session (Friday). Dallas Fed moderate Kaplan will also participate in a Q&A session.

Canada: The economic data calendar is busy, Wednesday to Friday, following Labor Day today . The employment report (Friday) takes top billing, with jobs expected to improve 20.0k in August after the 31.2k drop in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 7.0%, up from the 6.9% reading in July. The August Ivey PMI (Wednesday) is expected to improve to 58.0 from 57.0 in July. Capacity utilization (Thursday) is expected to fall to 80.0% in Q2 from 81.4% in Q1. Building permits (Thursday) are seen rising 2.0% in July after the 5.5% drop in June. The new home price index (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.1% m/m in July following the 0.1% gain in June. Housing starts (Friday) are seen slowing to 195.0k in August from 198.4k in July. The BOC has a rate announcement and press conference (Wednesday) with no change to the current 0.5% expected. Deputy Governor Lane has a presentation (Thursday).

Europe: The ECB will kick off this month’s round of major central bank meetings on Thursday. For Draghi the key question is whether the mixed data releases and the still low inflation numbers justify further action or mainly mean that the ECB won’t follow the Fed in its path to a policy normalisation. The data calendar has German manufacturing orders, which will be watched carefully after the marked drop in German manufacturing sentiment. The production number meanwhile is still likely to be impacted by the decline in orders seen in the proceeding months. EMU Services PMI, (Monday) is likely to be confirmed at a still robust 53.1. Tuesday, sees the final reading of Q2 GDP for the Eurozone, with the overall quarterly growth rate expected to be confirmed at 0.3%.

UK: There are several things to note about the UK. The first is that the economy has and is rebounding from the disruptive influences of the initial shock of the Brexit vote in late June, driven by the consumer sector and sharpened competitiveness from the 12%-plus decline in sterling. But the country is in a post-Brexit vote and pre-exit negotiations limbo, which is impeding business planning and investment. PM May last week repeated her “Brexit means Brexit,” which suggests the UK is destined for a “hard” EU exit, but yesterday she said queried the points-based migration plan so favoured by many Brexit voters and many in her own cabinet.

Services PMI (Monday) the August survey is expected to show a headline of 50.0 after July’s dive to 47.4. Production data for July is also up this week (Wednesday), which we expect will reveal declines of 0.1% and 0.3% in the respective industrial and manufacturing output readings. The August RICS house price index and July trade data are also up (Thursday and Friday, respectively). Last week’s August manufacturing PMI report portended a narrowing in the deficit, with manufacturers having reported increased export orders.

China: The August services PMI (Today) rose to 52.1 (a little above expectations) from 51.7, while the August trade surplus (Thursday) should narrow to $47.0 bln from $52.3 bln in July. August CPI and PPI (Friday) are penciled in at 1.8% y/y, unchanged from July, and -1.0% from -1.7%, respectively.

Japan: August services PMI (Today) fell to 49.6 from 50.4 in July. Thursday there is the second look at Q2 GDP, which we expect will be unchanged at up 0.2% q/q. The July current account surplus (Thursday) is seen widening to JPY 1,900.0 bln from 974.4 bln previously. August bank loan data are also set for a Thursday release. The July tertiary index (Friday) should rise 0.5% m/m as compared to June’s 0.8% increase. BoJ Governor Kuroda spoke at the at the G20 earlier today and was rather negative on the prospects of further monetary policy easing.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) is expected to hold rates steady at 1.50% after the widely expected 25 basis point cut that was delivered in August. Q2 GDP (Wednesday) is expected to moderate to an 0.4% growth rate (q/q, sa) after the 1.1% gain in Q2. The trade report (Thursday) is projected to reveal a -A3.0 bln deficit in July after the -A$3.2 bln shortfall in June. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen at -A$22.0 in Q2 after Q1’s -A$20.0 bln in red ink. Housing finance (Friday) is expected to fall 1.0% m/m in July after the 1.2% gain in June. The Melbourne Institute Experimental Inflation Gauge (Today) rose to 1.2% from 1.0% and and ANZ job ads (Today) also rose to 1.8% from -0.8% previously. RBA Deputy Governor Lowe gives welcome and introductory remarks at an international conference in Sydney (Thursday).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmuta Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

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Free Forex Trading Signals For 09.05.2016

September 5, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        96.15—-95.35 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Buttom
EUR/USD     1.1225—-1.1125 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
GBP/USD     1.3345—-1.3245 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CHF     0.9830—-0.9750 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
USD/JPY      104.55—-103.05 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
AUD/USD     0.7610—-0.7530 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Top
USD/CAD     1.3040—-1.2940 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
GOLD 1333.00—1311.00 Buy at the Buttom,    Stop Loss 9 $,           Target at the Top
Silver   19.60—19.10 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.20 $, Target at the Top
Oil   45.50—43.40 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 0.50 $,       Target at the Buttom

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Free Forex Trading Signals For 09.02.2016

September 2, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        96.05—-95.20    Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Buttom
EUR/USD     1.1250—-1.1150 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
GBP/USD     1.3350—-1.3200 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CHF     0.9860—-0.9730 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
USD/JPY      103.85—-102.55 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
AUD/USD     0.7590—-0.7520    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Top
USD/CAD     1.3135—-1.3045 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
GOLD 1323.00—1305.00 Buy at the Buttom,    Stop Loss 8 $,           Target at the Top
Silver   19.15—18.65 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.20 $,       Target at the Top
Oil   44.00—42.50    Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 0.50 $,       Target at the Buttom

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Strong UK Data – Cable Contained by 1.3300

September 2, 2016 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD, Daily

The good news keeps coming from the UK this week. UK construction PMI recovered much better than expected in August, lifting to a headline reading of 49.2 after July’s post-Brexit vote reading of 45.9. The median forecast had been for 46.5. This follows the stellar rebound in the manufacturing PMI in August, and the hope is that the PMI for the dominant service sector, which will be released on Monday, will follow suit. Offsetting the good news to an extent, was guidance from retirement home builder McCarthy & Stone, who said it had seen “evidence of some weakness.”

Cable initially rallied on the news, before hitting resistance at 133.00, NFP data is awaited as a potential catalyst for the break of the 1.3300 -1.3100 range.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 09.02.2016

September 2, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, (Nikkei closed flat at 16, 925) U.S. stock futures little changed and U.K. futures slightly higher. Oil prices meanwhile have lifted off lows, but remain firmly below USD 44 per barrel having traded to $43.02 yesterday. Investors are looking ahead to key U.S. jobs data during the European afternoon session, which are hoped to shed some light on the timing of a possible rate hike, although our forecast for a 185k headline increase (median (189k), close to the 3-month average of 190k, might not make a clear case for a September rate hike. The European calendar has Eurozone PPI data for July, as well as the U.K. August Construction PPI, Spanish unemployment numbers and the final reading of Italian Q2 GDP.

US Data Reports: The U.S. ISM drop to a 7-month low of 49.4 from 52.6 in July and a 16-month high of 53.2 in June reversed much of the 8-month climb from the 48.0 expansion-low in December. The ISM sits well below the 59.9 cycle-high in February of 2011, as all the sentiment measures have remained depressed since the oil price plunge starting in Q3 of 2014. U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.0 in the final August reading, versus July’s 52.9, and from the August preliminary print of 52.1. It was at 53.0 a year ago. New orders declined to 52.7 from July’s 54.2, reflecting a slower pace of growth. That led to a weaker pace of hiring, and resulted in a drop in employment to the lowest level since April.

Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed hawk Lorretta Mester said the low level of rates is not an effective solution to problems in the labor market, noting that she didn’t share the convictions of protestors at Jackson Hole last week who lobbied for the Fed to resolve racial income and employment gaps through extending low rate policy. She views these as “longer-run issues.” Otherwise, she made no other references to policy timing. She also said the US is basically at full employment and the case for gradual rate increases is pretty compelling, though the Fed is not behind the curve. She also supports including “confidence bands” around the Fed’s forecasts. Note she is a voter this year and there is nothing particularly new or changed in her view.

Waiting for Draghi: The summer is coming to an end and the ECB will have the questionable honour of kicking off this month’s round of central bank meetings. For Draghi the key question is whether the mixed data releases and the still low inflation numbers justify further action or mainly mean that the ECB won’t follow the Fed in its path to a policy normalisation. Unfortunately, the impact of currency moves on the growth and inflation outlook, which in turn also hinge on central bank decisions both in the U.S. and the U.K. will make it difficult for Draghi, who won’t have the benefit of hindsight and has to make his bid ahead of Yellen and Carney.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Construction PMI – 08:30 GMT – Forecast for a slight rise to 46.6 from 45.9.

US NonFarm Payrolls – 12:30 GMT – Bloomberg, CNBC, and Thomson Reuters Surveys have a consensus for 180k news jobs – There are very wide estimates this month ranging from +125k from PNC Financial to +255k from Societe Generale. The Unemployment Rate is expected to fall to 4.8% and the Average Hourly Earnings is also expected to fall to 0.2% from 0.3%.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

USOil hits target 1 & More mixed PMI’s in Europe

September 1, 2016 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD, Daily

The weak crude Oil inventories yesterday spurred our US Oil trade down to Target 1 rather quicker than expected and the $45.50 level proved irrelevant. Yesterday I wrote “Today I have re-entered the USOil trade ($46.25) this time on the short side as the psychological $47.00 level and 61.8 fib level were both breached and broken on yesterdays close. Target 1 at $44.55 is above the 38.2 Fib level and a little over the 2 week ATR However, it is but below the 50.0 Fib level, 20 and 50 DMA which all currently coalesce around $45.50, so expect some resistance here before the move lower. Target 2 at $42.25 and sub $40.00 again, cannot be ruled out. ”

Today there has been a raft of manufacturing PMI data with very mixed results from the Eurozone but very good results from the UK.

EMU Aug manufacturing PMI revised down to 51.7 from 51.8 reported initially and versus 52.0 in July. Germany and the Netherlands are reporting the strongest rate of manufacturing expansion, but while the latter is at a 5-month high, the former has dropped to a 3 month low. Italy has slipped back into recession territory and is at a 20-month low and the French reading is also pointing to contraction in the manufacturing sector. New orders growth has slowed to the weakest rate in one-and-a-half years according to Markit and new export orders rose at the slowest pace since May. Markit noted signs that growth could slow further in coming months amid “some suggestion of a Brexit impact”. That the Brexit scenario would hit especially the manufacturing sector was always clear and especially the exchange rate moves since the referendum will have been felt already. Whether this alone will be sufficient to spook the ECB remains to be seen.

UK August manufacturing PMI rebounded strongly from July’s post-Brexit vote slump to 48.3, coming in at 53.3. The is the biggest month-to-month rebound in 25 years and, at 53.3, is the best level the indicator has seen in 10 months. The median forecast had been for a much more modest recovery to a 49.0 reading. A surge in exports underpinned the sector. Markit, the compiler of the survey, reported that the 12%-plus drop in sterling since the Brexit vote was “by far the main factor manufacturers cited as supporting the upswing in new export work.” Markit also reported that a sense of “business as usual” had returned, with work postponed in July having been restarted in August. The data is encouraging, though the construction and services PMI reports, due tomorrow and Monday, respectively, are likely to show that these sectors have not enjoyed the same extent of benefits of the weaker pound that the manufacturing sector evidently has.

Sterling has nonetheless surged on data today, up by nearly 1% versus the dollar and currently trades above the 50 DMA and close to the top of its post Brexit range at 1.3245.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 09.01.2016

September 1, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: European stock futures are higher, following on from a mixed session in Asia, where Japanese bourses managed to move higher in tandem with the Hang Seng after improvements in Japan and China manufacturing PMIs. Mainland Chinese bourses meanwhile were in the red. The U.S. jobs report tomorrow is moving into focus and investors and central bankers look to data for clues on the timing of a possible Fed hike. The ECB meanwhile seems eager to prevent any build up of easing speculation ahead of next week’s meeting and Draghi is still remarkably stumm as the block out period for central bank comments starts. Today’s European calendar focuses on PMI readings, which in the case of the final Eurozone reading is not expected to hold major surprises, while the U.K. number is hoped to lift slightly from the post Brexit slump in July.

Oil & Gold: Commodities under pressure – WTI crude has traded under the $45/bbl mark for the first time since August 15, touching $44.49 lows, as the combination of higher U.S. inventories, and a firm dollar continue to weigh. Bigger picture, an OPEC production freeze is not expected at the September meeting in Algiers, despite recent comments from Iraq’s oil minister, who said he would support a freeze. Loggerheads between Saudi and Iran, who has insisted on bringing its production back to pre-sanction levels, will likely result in no agreement to cap output. Gold dropped to new two-month lows of $1,304.10 from near $1,316.00, on a reported large sale (nominal $4 bln-plus), rumored to be linked to the cutting of a large long position. This may have been the result of the in-line ADP jobs data, and ahead of Friday’s official employment report. A solid NFP outcome on Friday will up the odds for a September Fed rate hike, which would likely weigh heavily on gold prices.

US Data Reports: Revealed an August Chicago PMI drop to 51.5 from 55.8 in July and a 17-month high of 56.8 in June, as these numbers unwind the mid-year auto-retooling boost, while ADP posted a firm 177k August rise after a big July boost to 194k from 179k. For producer sentiment, we expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to slip to 51 from 52 in July but a lower 50 in May and June. The ADP gain signals slight upside risk for our 185k August payroll estimate, given the 20k downside bias in as-reported ADP, alongside upside risk from tight claims and producer sentiment, but downside auto sector risk as sales drop to the 17.2 mln area in August after the July pop to a 17.8 mln rate.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari wants to see core inflation rise and needs more data before considering a rate hike, speaking on DJ News. Sounds like the moderate regional Fed president is still on the dovish side of the fence, though he’s not a voter in this rotation. These comments came from a video interview in which he reiterated calls for too-big-to-fail reforms and said monetary policy is a blunt tool, but offered little else on rate hike timing per se.

Main Macro Events Today

US Manufacturing ISM August ISM is out today and is expected to decline slightly to 52.0 (median 52.0) from 52.6 in July and 53.2 in June. Already released measures of producer sentiment for August have been weaker so one to watch at 14:00 GMT.

US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of August 27 is out Thursday and should reveal a headline increase to 269k (median 264k) from 261k in the week prior and 262k before that. More broadly, we expect claims to set a higher average in August at 263k from 260k in July. This supports our nonfarm payrolls forecast which we currently have at 185k with a 4.8% unemployment rate for August.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Trading Signals For 09.01.2016

September 1, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        96.25—-95.70    Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 20 pips, Target at the Buttom
EUR/USD     1.1190—-1.1130 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
GBP/USD     1.3205—-1.3075 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CHF     0.9860—-0.9795 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Buttom
USD/JPY      104.00—-103.00 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
AUD/USD     0.7535—-0.7470 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 30 pips,     Target at the Buttom
USD/CAD     1.3180—-1.3080 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
GOLD 1315.00—1302.00 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 6 $,     Target at the Buttom
Silver   18.80—18.50 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 0.20 $,     Target at the Buttom
Oil   45.50—44.00    Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 0.50 $,     Target at the Buttom

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Eurozone data misses – ECB in focus

August 31, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURUSD, Daily

Eurozone Aug HICP inflation – 0.2% y/y, slightly lower than the initially expected rise to 0.3% y/y, but not a surprise after the unexpected drop in the German headline rate yesterday and the steady French number earlier today. Core inflation unexpectedly fell back to 0.8% y/y from 0.9% y/y. Eurozone inflation still is very slowly trending higher, but remains at very low levels, even when taking out the impact of oil prices.

Eurozone July unemployment held steady at 10.1%, against expectations for a slight dip in the headline number to 10.0%. With back revisions the headline rate has remained steady for a while now and is only gradually trending lower, with national rates still showing a wide variations and ranging from just 3.9% in Malta to nearly 20% in Spain (Greece hasn’t released data for June or July yet, but is likely to top the list with a jobless rate of clearly over 20%) Spanish jobless numbers are coming down, however, which is encouraging, although the very high youth unemployment rate in the Eurozone of 21.1% remains a pressing issues for politicians in particular, as it not only reflects modest growth, but also the need for further labour market reforms.

So while the numbers by themselves don’t necessarily call for a further relaxation of the ECB’s very accommodative policy stance, they still give Draghi room to manoeuvre. For now though it seems the ECB is more concerned with trying to distance itself from the Fed’s focus on another rate hike this year then advocating further easing for the Eurozone.

EURUSD eased further, as the USD strengthened, posting three week lows at 1.1130. Next support is at the 200 DMA 1.1115 and then 1.1075. The 4 hour chart is also bearish with a break of the 200 MA and support at 1.1135 being tested.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

USOil hits Target 2 and goes into reverse

August 31, 2016 Forex Analysis

USOil Daily

Before I left for holidays I had two open trades, USOil (Buy) and UK100 (Sell). The USOil trade hit Target 2 ($44.55) from my entry at $39.79 and continued all the way to north of $48.50 before turning south again. The UK100 trade was closed on the rally to 6880 from my entry at 6720 in the middle of July.

Today I have re-entered the USOil trade ($46.25) this time on the short side as the psychological $47.00 level and 61.8 fib level were both breached and broken on yesterdays close. Target 1 at $44.55 is above the 38.2 Fib level and a little over the 2 week ATR. However, it is but below the 50.0 Fib level, 20 and 50 DMA which all currently coalesce around $45.50, so expect some resistance here before the move lower. Target 2 at $42.25 and sub $40.00 again, cannot be ruled out.

Alternatively, the $45.50 areal could provide support for a move back to the August high of $48.88 and another attempt to break the psychological $50.00. OPEC sees demand for oil increasing during Q3 and Q4 of 2016 and that higher prices will prevail. The International Energy Forum (IEF) meets September 26-28 in Algeria with OPEC member countries due to meet informally during the event.

Today the crude markets have ignored remarks from the Iraqi PM that he supports proposals by OPEC for a production freeze, which is set to be discussed at next month’s meeting. Most energy analysts have been downplaying prospects for a production freeze due to Iran’s ongoing build up of supply following the lifting of sanctions (production still remains well off pre-sanction levels), which has been irksome to Saudi Arabia.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

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