The Economic Week Ahead for 10.24.2016

October 24, 2016 Forex Analysis

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: Several major events are on the horizon, including monetary policy decisions from the FOMC, BoJ, and BoE, not to mention the U.S. presidential election, now less than three weeks away. Uncertainties over monetary policy, the political landscape, as well as the economic and inflation outlooks have largely restrained global markets in recent weeks. However, stocks and bonds have been buoyed of late by expectations that central banks will maintain their uber-stimulative policies, signs that 2H growth is accelerating, albeit modestly, and that inflationary pressures might be surfacing.

Data takes a backseat this week with a number of Tier one reports, but none that are crucial for near term direction or for the FOMC decision next week. The Advance GDP report for Q3 headlines (Friday). Employment costs for Q3 are also due (Friday) Both of these reports are old news, however, and should have little impact. Also October ISM (Monday) and services (Wednesday) numbers and October consumer confidence (Tuesday). The final October consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan survey (Friday), New home sales for September (Wednesday) also August home price reports (Tuesday) from Case-Shiller and the FHFA, along with the September pending home sales index. Durable orders for September (Thursday), finally of note is the advance trade report for September due (Wednesday). Fedspeak: starts to lighten up ahead of the November 1, 2 FOMC. This week there is the usual mix of hawks and doves; Monday sees – Dudley (dove), Bullard (turning hawkish) , Evans (Dove) and Powell (centrist). Lockhart (hawkish) speaks Tuesday.

The Q3 earnings announcements peak this week with about 1/3 of the Dow and 1/3 of the S&P reporting, including the two biggest stars Apple (Tuesday) and Alphabet (Thursday). Through the earnings season so far, 7 of the 11 S&P sectors have recorded profit growth, while earnings have beaten expectations by nearly 7%.

Canada: The final piece of the August GDP is released Monday along with the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins appearing at the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance.

Europe: With the ECB’s decision on the future of the QE program postponed until December, the focus returns to data releases and this will be a busy week. The most important numbers currently are business confidence indicators, manufacturing PMI (Monday). The German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday) French Business Confidence (Tuesday) are all expected to rise slightly which should leave the European Commission’s overall ESI Economic Confidence (Friday) little changed at 105. All those are pretty much in line with the ECB’s central scenario of a gradual recovery with ongoing risks to the downside. GDP numbers are also due this week, along wityh HCIP numbers.

UK: The focus remains on the Brexit process, not least of which is the constitutional crisis that the referendum has instigated. The UK’s calendar this week features the CBI surveys on industrial trends (Monday) and distributive trades (Thursday), along with the first estimate of Q3 GDP (Wednesday). Given Brexit uncertainties, sterling markets will likely be more sensitive to any unexpected weakness in data rather than any unexpected strength.

China: No data releases this week.

Japan: September services PPI (Wednesday), CPI , September Unemployment , Personal Income and PCE all due this week. Already released are Trade balance and PMI manufacturing which ticked up to 51.7 from 50.4 last time.

Australia: The calendar will provide a comprehensive picture of the Q3 inflation backdrop, with CPI (Wednesday), PPI (Friday) and trade prices (Thursday) due this week.

2016-10-24_09-21-07 Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmuta Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Trading Signals For 10.25.2016

October 24, 2016October 25, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        99.10—-98.40 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
EUR/USD     1.0915—-1.0815 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
GBP/USD     1.2270—-1.2140 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
USD/CHF     0.9980—-0.9920 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
USD/JPY      104.50—-103.50 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
AUD/USD     0.7640—-0.7550 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
USD/CAD     1.3430—-1.3300 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
GOLD 1270.00—1260.00 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 5 $, Target at the Buttom
Silver   17.60—17.40 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 0.15 $, Target at the Buttom
Oil   51.20—50.30    Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 0.60 $, Target at the Buttom

Keywords:Forex Trading Signals,Forex Trading Strategy,Forex Trading System,Free Forex Analysis,Forex Forecast
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GBP Showing signs of life – GBPCAD & GBPCHF

October 21, 2016 Forex Analysis

GBPCAD, Daily

Yesterday’s (October 20) close saw GBPCAD close at a week’s high following a reversal from below 1.5950 on Monday. Tuesday’s hammer candle and close over 1.6100 suggested that the short term floor may be in, sterling then picked up across most pairs yesterday. A LONG position was opened today at 1.6140 with a short term target 1 at 1.6300 and target 2 at the 23.6 Fibonacci level and 20 DMA at 1.6515. The Parabolic SAR remains negative and the higher timeframes are still in down trends so this position is against the prevailing trend.

2016-10-21_16-15-14 There are signs that that the relentless downward momentum and sentiment against sterling may at last be easing, at least in some currency crosses. GBPCHF formed a tweezer bottom last week and has edged higher over the last six sessions. The break over 1.2100 has been held and yesterday’s hammer candle confirmed a LONG position today at 1.2131. Target 1 is around the 14 Day ATR at 1.2268 and the 20 DMA, Target 2 is at the 50 DMA and the post Brexit 38.2 Fibonacci level at 1.2570. This position is against the higher longer term weekly and monthly time frames, so the move up may be limited.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

EURJPY Hits Target 1- EURUSD Hits Targets 1&2

October 21, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURJPY, Daily

On Monday (October 17) I wrote “A number of the EUR pairs look like they may be rolling over, one with the most potential could be the EURJPY. The pair had a good run up from the September low around 112.00 to a recent high at 116.30. The pair retraced to the 23.6 and 38.2 Fibonacci levels last week as the 20 & 50 DMA and the 50.0 Fibonacci levels provide support around 114.00-114.12. A breach and break of this level will could see a fall to Target 1 at 113.00 and Target 2 at 112.00, both psychological round numbers and multiples of the 14 day ATR which is currently 107. This move would be in line with the longer term Weekly and Monthly time frames”

The trade was triggered on Tuesday (October 18) and following the ECB rate announcement and press conference yesterday, Target 1 (113.00) was reached earlier today for a net gain of 112 pips.

2016-10-21_14-34-01

The EURUSD SHORT position had been open from last week (October 12) when I wrote “EURUSD’s technical picture remains one of bearish momentum. The pair has broken back below, and posted two daily closes below, the 200-day moving average, which is presently sitting at 1.1172. The clear break of the 200 DMA, which was confirmed yesterday, generated a SHORT position this morning at 1.1035. The next downside targets are Target 1 1.0950, the recent July Low and Target 2 1.0917 the June low.” Both Target 1 and Target 2 have been achieved in the last 24 hours as the pair broke the key 1.09500 level for a net gain of 118 pips. The next support area is the March low at 1.0824.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 10.21.2016

October 21, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Japanese bourses managing marginal gains as the Yen falls against the Dollar. Stock futures in the U.S. are down, but U.K. futures are slightly in positive territory after the UK100 managed to close with a marginal gain on Thursday. Eurozone bond and stock markets outperformed yesterday after Draghi managed to dampen tapering fears, while postponing any decisions on future policy to December. Bund futures moved sideways in after hour trade, and oil prices are falling towards USD 50 per barrel, which will dampen investor appetite but Eurozone markets are likely to continue outperforming their U.K. counterparts in the wake of Draghi’s statement yesterday. The data calendar is relatively quiet, with only U.K. public finance data, but the ECB’s survey of professional forecasts will give clues about the inflation outlook and comments from Weidmann may add a more hawkish spin to Draghi’s message yesterday. The GER30 is awaiting earnings reports from Daimler as positive numbers from SAP are underpinning the index ahead of the official open.

Kuroda Speech: BOJ will evaluate appropriate yield curve at every meeting, “ideal” can change depending on economy, not immediately thinking of lowering 80tln yen goal and possible to revise reaching 2% inflation time frame (currently target is for Inflation to hit 2% during 2017) !! He also reemphasized that “buying, selling FX is under the jurisdiction of the Finance Ministry”.

ECB – Decisions on QE Postponed until December: Nothing new from the ECB, with major decisions postponed, pretty much as we expected. While Draghi initially spooked markets by saying that an extension to the QE program hasn’t been discussed today, he still managed to keep investors happy in the end, by adding that an abrupt halt to asset purchases is unlikely. With the current program, which runs until March, confirmed at EUR 80 bln per month, this implies an extension of the asset purchase schedule, even if it may come at somewhat reduced levels.

US Data Reports: Revealed firm Philly Fed component data despite a small headline drop to 9.7 in October from a 19-month high of 12.8, alongside a 13k bounce in initial claims in the BLS survey week to a still respectable 260k that remains consistent with a remarkably lean 253k October average. We also saw a 3.2% September existing home sales rise to a 5.47 mln rate that beat estimates, alongside a 0.2% September leading indicators bounce that reversed a 0.2% August drop. The monthly data appear poised for an upturn into Q4, as the bounce in oil prices is allowing a mining and factory output recovery just as the big six-quarter inventory headwind comes to a close.

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Retail Sales – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in August after the 0.1% dip in July. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen expanding 0.4% in August following the 0.1% dip in July. Gasoline prices dipped just 0.9% in August after the 5.6% plunge in July, according to the CPI . Hence we should see the gasoline station sales component exert a very slight drag on total and ex-autos sales. Vehicle sales downshifted to a slower pace in July, and that modest slowing persisted in August according to industry sales figures. Sales volumes grew 0.3% in July, suggestive of some awaking in the consumer after spending declines from March to June.

Canada CPI – CPI is also expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.2% drop in August. Total CPI is seen accelerating to a 1.4% y/y pace in September from the 1.1% rate in August. A pick-up in gasoline prices is expected to drive the gain in total CPI during September relative to August, contrasting with the hefty gasoline price declines that were a drag on total CPI in July and August. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI is seen rising 0.2% m/m in September after the flat reading in August, leaving a 1.8% y/y pace that is identical to the growth rate in in August.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Trading Signals For 10.21.2016

October 21, 2016October 24, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        98.60—-98.10 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
EUR/USD     1.0960—-1.0880 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
GBP/USD     1.2295—-1.2205    Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
USD/CHF     0.9960—-0.9870 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/JPY      104.50—-103.50 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
AUD/USD     0.7660—-0.7580 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
USD/CAD     1.3260—-1.3180 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
GOLD 1273.00—1260.00 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 6 $, Target at the Buttom
Silver   17.70—17.40 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 0.15 $, Target at the Buttom
Oil   51.40—50.00    Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 0.60 $, Target at the Buttom

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Gold breaks out of recent channel

October 20, 2016 Forex Analysis

XAUUSD, Daily

Gold has been consolidating in a channel between USD 1240 – 1265 since the last US jobs report (NFP October 7). This consolidation was around the long term 200 DMA at 1256. The yellow metal has spent nine consecutive days below this important support level, suggesting longer term weakness. However, the breach and break of this key level and with a third consecutive up candle triggered a LONG position at USD 1267.00 on yesterdays (October 19) close. Should this move prove a true break out then an immediate short term Target 1 is at USD 1281.00, north of the 23.6 Fib level and close to the 20 DMA. Target 2 is at the 38.2 Fib level USD 1292.00 and longer term Target 3 would return Gold to north of 1300 at USD 1305.00.

The move back to 1300 level would suggest a weakening USD which is not evident at the moment. The Parabolic SAR remains negative, and the break out could fail as the RSI and Stochastics remains neutral.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

EURGBP Hits Target 1 & UK Retail Sales Miss

October 20, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURGBP, Daily

The first of my LONG positions on sterling hit Target 1 yesterday, it was only for a minute or two but EURGBP spiked down to 0.8900 for a net gain of 116 pips. At the same time the EURUSD and EURJPY SHORT positions came within a few pips of also hitting target, but have both since retraced. The question is how do I feel about this? To be honest the spike to 0.8900 exactly and so quickly could be regarded as fortunate and the closeness of the other two trades could be unlucky. The trick is to treat all three situations the SAME, all the thinking and analysis is done before the post is put together and the positions are triggered. The EUR trades, having come so close to target, could easily now, with some positive news from Mr Draghi’s press conference reverse and move in the opposite direction. Again the trick is to trust your analysis, trade what you see and NEVER risk too much on one single trade.

UK retail sales disappointed in September, coming in flat m/m from a revised 0.0% reading in August. The median forecast had been for a 0.4% m/m rise. The y/y figure was +4.1%, below the median forecast for 4.8% and down from August’s 6.1% y/y reading. Overall, while sub-forecast the data still paints a picture of a buoyant consumer sector, which has held up much better than many had feared following the Breixt vote. But, darker clouds are appearing on the horizon, with inflation generally seen as likely to shoot to around 3.0% by the end of 2017, which will likely erode household prosperity, along with higher energy prices. Then there is Brexit uncertainty, which has seen many firms putting investment and recruitment “on hold,” according to the EY ITEM’s Autumn report, while BoE bank agents surveys have showed businesses expecting Brexit to have a negative effect on capital spending, hiring and turnover.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 10.20.2016

October 20, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher, as the Dollar strengthened in the wake of the last U.S. presidential debate. The weaker Yen helped to underpin Japanese markets and the most recent rise in oil prices is also helping to underpin investor demand. The front end WTI future has come off highs but is holding comfortably above USD 51 per barrel. In Europe the focus is on the ECB meeting and even if policy is likely to remain on hold today, Draghi will hope to keep his options sufficiently open to avoid a temper tantrum as markets focus on further stimulus beyond the current QE program, which ends in March next year. The European calendar also has U.K. retail sales, BoP and current account data from the Eurozone and Swiss trade data at the start of the session.

BOC Rate Decision: Governor Poloz said they actively discussed adding more monetary stimulus before deciding to leave the policy rate unchanged. He said the Governing Council “actively discussed the possibility of adding more monetary stimulus at this time, in order to return to the economy to full capacity.” Yet, they “identified a number of uncertainties in the current framework that are serving to widen the zone of balance within our risk-management framework.” Those uncertainties include “the macroeconomic effects of the new mortgage rates, the likely path of our exports; the impact of the federal government’s fiscal measures…and the effects on business confidence of the U.S. election.” The revelation that they “actively discussed” the possibility of adding more stimulus is not exactly a surprise. Given where the domestic and global economy currently sit, expectations are that this will continued to be discussed but with the same result (no change in rates) to be the same.

Poor Australian Labour Data: The number of jobs fell last month by 9,800, expectations were for an increase of 15,200, also the previous month was revised down to a fall of 8,600 from a fall of 3,900. Fulltime employment for September showed a dramatic fall of 53,000 and August was revised down to 10,500 from 11,500. AUD/USD dropped from around 0.7725 to under 0.7700, spent a few minutes chopping in a small range before slipping further and its under 0.7665 currently. Just as doubts were raised after big employment gains in the past, doubts were raised on big employment losses on today’s figures, the -53K for full time jobs in the month result in particular was greeted with questions.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed moderate (and non-voter) Kaplan sees inflation firming while GDP growth for 2016 will likely average 1.75%, sufficient to drive down unemployment and take some slack out of the labor force. He sees political uncertainty likely affecting capital spending, but once the election is out of the way focus needs to shift to entitlement reform and infrastructure spending. Kaplan also notes that the Fed needs to be “humble” about the limits of monetary policy. Fed’s Potter says the Fed should be prepared to sell MBS, in comments at a Minneapolis Fed conference. Potter is head of the Fed’s Markets Group, so he has a lot of authority behind his words. Though “current FOMC guidance states that the sale of agency MBS is not anticipated…it is prudent for the Desk to be prepared for a wide variety of scenarios, including sales or the need to purchase additional agency MBS.” The large size and structure of the agency MBS market makes it a “desirable choice for conduction operations of the magnitude necessary t have a meaningful impact on financial and macroeconomic conditions.” However, the Fed’s experience with selling MBS is much more limited than purchasing agency paper, he noted. The Fed’s portfolio and possible manipulations of such has been in the news lately, especially after a “twist” operation was broached by Boston Fed’s Rosengren last week.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate Announcement & Press Conference – Even if the ECB more likely to postpone any major decisions until December Draghi will be facing a difficult balancing act at today’s press conference, especially since a Reuters reported suggested that the planned tweaks to the asset purchase program designed to address looming supply shortages could already be discussed this week. At the same time, the question is whether the ECB will extend the QE program beyond March next year, when the current schedule of EUR 80 bln purchases per month is set to end. With growth indicators suggesting ongoing economic expansion and inflation starting to move higher, the ECB clearly is reluctant to add even more stimulus to an already very expansionary policy but the doves at the council will press for a follow up program with the end result likely a gradual phasing out of asset purchases. It will depend on Draghi’s delivery whether this will spook markets as the dreaded “tapering” or whether he can sell it as the further expansion of monetary policy it actually is. For now Draghi will be keeping all his options open and try to deliver a statement that keeps markets guessing and hoping and thus avoids a temper tantrum.

US Philly Fed Index – October Philly Fed should reveal a headline dip to 6.3 after the September bounce to 12.8 from 2.0 in August. The Empire State Index for October is already out and declined to -6.8 from -2.0 in September. Broadly, expectations are for producer sentiment to trend sideways in October with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures holding at 50 from August and September.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Trading Signals For 10.20.2016

October 20, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        98.05—-97.50 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 20 pips, Target at the Buttom
EUR/USD     1.1025—-1.0945 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
GBP/USD     1.2360—-1.2240 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CHF     0.9920—-0.9860    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
USD/JPY      103.80—-102.70 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
AUD/USD     0.7770—-0.7670    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CAD     1.3180—-1.3050    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
GOLD 1280.00—1261.00    Buy at the Buttom,    Stop Loss 7 $,       Target at the Top
Silver   17.80—17.50 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.15 $,       Target at the Top
Oil       53.00—50.80    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.50 $,     Target at the Top

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