FOREX News Today

European Outlook: The decline on global stock markets continued in Asia overnight, with most markets in the red. UK stock futures are posting slight gains; however as oil prices managed to claw back some losses and the front end WTI future moved above USD 43 per barrel after falling to an earlier low of USD 42.64. A stronger Yen added to pressure on Japanese markets ahead of the BoJ meeting later this week, while the fact that the EUR is holding below 1.13 to the dollar will be welcomed by Eurozone investors. Markets are cautious ahead of this week’s central bank meetings, with the Fed meeting starting today. The local calendar is very quiet with only UK BBA mortgage approvals and French jobseekers.

US Sentiment Mixed Signals: The Empire State and Philly Fed reports revealed opposing April headlines, with a big gain for the Empire State but a dramatic plunge for the Philly Fed. We think the March sentiment upswing will mostly survive this early-April divergence, with a drop-back in the ISM-adjusted average of the major measures to 51 after the March pop to 53 from lower 49 averages in both January and February. The price measures of both surveys were firm, and price gains into April should sustain firmness in the remaining April surveys.

US Dallas Fed manufacturing index falls: The index slipped to -13.9 in April from -13.6 in March, a 16th consecutive monthly decline, though the pace of decline is only about 1/3 of what it was in January. The employment component improved to -3.7 from -10.3, but remained in contractionary territory for a 4th straight month. The workweek was -1.0 from -5.6. New orders jumped to 6.2 from -4.8, and are the highest since October 2014. Prices paid rallied to 5.5 from -0.2, and are in positive territory for the first time since June, with prices received at -6.6 from -8.2. Capital expenditures rose to 1.6 from -0.9. However, the 6-month general business activity index eroded to 0.4 from 6.1, with employment weakening to 9.4 from 13.0, though new orders improved to 32.6 from 29.7, with prices paid edging up to 20.2 from 18.9. Capital expenditures dipped to 8.5 from 13.3. This is a mixed report with some signs that the recession in the region is easing, though the slide in some of the future indicators is disappointing.

US New Home Sales mixed: New home sales saw a 1.5% March drop to a 511k rate, but with prior boosts that left a stronger than expected 515k Q1 sales rate that matched the cycle-high in Q1 of 2015. Inventories beat estimates after upward revisions to leave a six-year high, though median prices fell 3.2% in March after downward revisions to leave a 1.8% y/y decline

 

Main Macro Events Today

• US Durable Goods: March durable goods data is out today and we expect orders to grow 1.0% (median 1.9%) on the month with shipments down 0.5% and inventories down 0.2%. This follows respective February figures of -3.0% for orders, -1.0% for shipments and -0.3% for inventories. Data in line with our forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.66 for a second month.

• US Consumer Confidence: April consumer confidence is also out later today and should reveal a headline decrease to 95.5 (median 95.8) from 96.2 in March. This would fit with the broader trend of confidence declines in April where we saw a Michigan Sentiment decrease to 89.7 from 91.0 and an IBD/TIPP decline to 46.3 from 46.8.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly lower, with Japan outperforming and posting modest gains, as the Yen weakened across the board. Generally though risk aversion is picking up again after U.S. stock markets closed in the red, following the mixed performance in Europe yesterday. U.K. stock futures are also down, U.S. futures mixed. Oil prices are up on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 44 per barrel. The DAX, which managed to close with a slight gain yesterday is heading for a quiet end to the weak and the FTSE is likely to continue to underperform amid Brexit concerns. Bund and Gilt futures could recover some of yesterday’s sharp losses with the unexpected Riksbank easing sparking concerns that the general outlook is worse than feared and the ECB dampening hopes of further easing in the near future. The calendar focuses on Eurozone PMI readings for Aprils, where we look for a modest improvement in headline rates, but a confirmation that growth in core countries is slowing down.

More poor data from Japan: Japanese Tertiary Industry activity shrank m/m by -0.1%, but this was better than expectations of a -0.4% fall, previously the index stod at 0.7%.  Meanwhile Manufacturing PMI fell 1.1 to 48 its lowest levels since December 2012, following the two earthquakes around the southern island of Kyushu (a major area of manufacturing) outlook continue to look uncertain. The JPY weaken against EUR GBP and USD. USDJPY rose over 110 on the data releases its highest since April 6^th..

ECB In Wait and See Mode, Helicopter Money Off the Table: No big surprises from the ECB yesterday, with the central bank focused on implementing the March easing package and effectively in wait and see stance. The door to further easing remains open if necessary, but it is clear that for now nothing is in the pipeline and in our view September seems the earliest time for a serious policy review. However, even if the ECB might add additional measures in the future, Helicopter money certainly remains off the agenda.  The introductory statement explicitly stated that the focus at the central bank for now is the implementation of the measures announced in March. The overall assessment of the situation remains pretty much unchanged from the last meeting, with the risks to the growth outlook still seen on the downside and global headwinds and geopolitical risks seen as the main factors that could hit the still fragile recovery. Like the Bundesbank already said earlier in the week, inflation could fall back into negative territory in coming months, but the main scenario is still a pick up later in the year and a gradual rise through 2017 and 2018. No major changes to the central staff projections from March then .The EURUSD flirted with an attempt at 1.1400, but retreated to 1.1268 briefly, the pair currently trading at 1.1300.

 

Main Macro Events Today

•  EMU PMI:  PMI readings are likely to be more mixed than the clear improvement in ZEW investor confidence and highlight once again the renewed divergence between countries. France seems to remain stuck in contraction territory, even if today’s national business confidence numbers showed some improvement. German PMI numbers are still expected to improve, but only slightly. For the Eurozone as a whole, we are looking for an improvement in the manufacturing PMI to 51.7 (med 51.8) from 51.6 and a rise in the services reading to 53.3 (med same) from 53.1. Stronger growth in smaller countries is helping to compensate for the weakness in the core, but economic momentum is slowing down, which will also start to have an impact on the labour market.

• Canada CPI: We expect CPI, due today, to slow to a 1.1% y/y pace in March (median +1.2%) from the 1.4% clip in February. But CPI is seen rising 0.5% on a month comparable basis in March after the 0.2% gain in February. Gas prices jumped around 5% m/m in March after falling 6.9% m/m in in February and dropping 6.0% in January. Currency appreciation could restrain price growth. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen rising 0.4% m/m in March after the 0.5% gain in February, consistent with recent moves in this not seasonally adjusted index during March. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 1.8% y/y rate (median same at +1.8%) in March, down from the 1.9% pace in February and 2.0% clip in January.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.