FX News Today

Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates to 2.50% from 2.75%. The rate cut was widely anticipated. The reduction in the official cash rate as “monetary policy need to be accommodative to help ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range,” Governor Wheeler said. He expects this can be accomplished at the current rate setting, but assured the bank will reduce rates further if needed. On the exchange rate, he said the recent rise in the value of the New Zealand dollar has been “unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate in order to support sustainable growth.”

Japan’s PPI improved to a 3.6% y/y rate of decline in November from -3.8% in October. Granted, that is still troublesome for the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy, but at least the rate of decline did not worsen. The PPI fell 0.1% m/m in November after the 0.6% plunge in November.

Australia employment surged 71.4k in November after the revised 56.1k gain in October (was +58.6k). The hefty gain in November, which was the largest one month gain since July of 2000, contrasted with expectations for a modest dip following the sizable rise in October. Full time jobs grew 41.6k in November after the 38.4k rise in October (was +40.0k). Part time jobs rose 29.7k after a 17.7k gain (was +18.6k). The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in November from 5.9% while the participation rate rose to 65.3% in November from 65.0%. Two consecutive months of stellar job growth confirms that the RBA’s stimulus efforts are working. Moreover, it trims prospects for further cuts from the RBA next year. We see no change for an extended period. AUD-USD shot higher to the 0.7300 area from 0.7250 ahead of the report.

 

Main Macro Events Today

• SNB Rate Decision: The SNB was in luck and Draghi didn’t quite deliver the bazooka markets had been hoping for, which meant market reaction didn’t go quite according to plan and this gives the SNB some time to watch how things develop. That doesn’t mean, there couldn’t be further easing outside a policy setting meeting if there is fresh upward pressure on the currency. 

• BoE Rate Decision: No change is expected in the Bank of England’s 0.5% rate policy.

• Canada Capacity Utilization: We expect the capacity use rate, due Thursday, to recover to 82.0% in Q3 (median 82.1%) from 81.3% in Q2. The anticipated improvement tracks the 2.3% rebound in Q3 GDP after the 0.3% drop in Q2 and the 0.7% pull-back in Q1.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Initial claims data for the week of December 5 are out today and should show claims at 268k (median 267k) for the week, down from 269k in the week prior but above the 260k reading before that. Despite improvements in claims data we tend to see increased volatility around the holiday season which accounts for some of the increase in the November average to 269k. We expect a December average of 266k which compares to our forecast for nonfarm payrolls of 190k for the month.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

German trade surplus continues to widen.Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 20.7 bln in October, up from EUR 19.2 bln in the previous month, as exports declined 1.2% m/m, which was counterbalanced by a 3.4% m/m drop in imports. Import numbers have been very volatile and as this is nominal data also driven by exchange rate and especially oil price developments. Unadjusted data show a trade surplus of EUR 208.8 bln in the first 10 months of hteyear, up from EUR 177.8 bln in the corresponding period 2014. The current account surplus widened to EUR 199.5 bln in the January to October period from EUR 168.8 bln last year. So Germany is likely to remain under attack for its widening trade surplus, despite the fact that for once overall growth is actually driven largely by consumption and domestic demand.

China’s CPI grew at a 1.5% y/y pace in November, slightly better than expected following the 1.3% y/y clip in October. The annual CPI growth rate had been slowing since seeing a year high 2.0% y/y rate in August (September was +1.6% y/y), and the pick-up in November suggests government stimulus efforts may have provided some lift to demand. The PPI fell 5.9% y/y in November, matching the rate of decline in October. China’s stocks are unchanged, while the Nikkei is down 1.1% and the Hang Seng is off 0.7%.

BoC Poloz downplayed the September GDP plunge, noting that it was driven by special factors. Notably, there was a fire in the oil sands that shut-down some production. That production was back on line in October, he noted. As for Q3, he reminded that the Bank projected it would be “puffed-up” by special factors, notably the child tax credit. Moreover, the weak hand-off to Q4 was also anticipated. They will review the Q4 projection for the January MPR. He reminded that “data do not go in a straight line.” These comments were consistent with his ongoing view that the economy is evolving roughly as they expected in October. In a separate answer, he counseled patience, saying that only half the impact of the policy action this year has been seen. Poloz shot down drawing any conclusion for the discussion of unconventional policy in today’s prepared remarks. “There is no need to contemplate these measures,” he said. He said all the ingredients for Canada’s recovery are in place. “We are not talking about doing that (lowering rates to the lower bound), we are making sure our tool kit is up to date,” he said. He said the bank would use unconventional again in the case of a major shock, such as was seen in 2008. On the growth trajectory, he added that “like we said last week and in October, the pieces are coming together.”

US JOLTS job openings fell 151k in October to 5,383k, following September’s 157k rebound (revised from 149k). That caused the rate to dip to 3.6% from 3.7%. Hiring rose 57k to 5,137k after declining 1k previously (revised from -32k). The rate was unchanged at 3.6% (September was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 52k in September after falling 44k previously (revised from -51k). The quit rate was steady at 1.9%. The data are on the old side and won’t impact the FOMC, especially as the November jobs data revealed a solid round of numbers.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Wholesale Trade: October wholesale trade data is out today and should show sales up 0.5% (median 0.3%) following a 0.8% drop in August. Inventories should be down 0.1% following a 0.5% addition in September. Data in line with these forecasts would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.31 for a third month from August.

• RBNZ rate decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the official cash rate today to 2.5% from 2.75% after the governor Wheeler repeated his comment that “some further easing in the OCR seemes likely”. However, as mentioned this is not the first time the governor says this.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

Asian stock markets are sharply down and Australian bonds posted the sharpest gains since July, as China’s exports fell for a fifth month and a sharper than expected decline in foreign exchange reserves fuelled fears about the health of the Chinese economy. Oil prices are little changed and close to the lowest level since 2009. U.S. stock futures are also lower, but U.K. stock futures are managing slight gains. Eurozone markets stabilized yesterday, with yields coming off and the DAX bouncing back from the sharp losses seen in the wake of last week’s ECB meeting. Released overnight, U.K. BRC retail sales came in much weaker than expected and should support bond futures. The calendar also has U.K. production and the final reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP.

China’s Exports fell 6.8% y/y in November, while the analysts expected for 5.0% contraction. Trade surplus narrowed to $54.1 bln in November,contrary to expectations for an increase relative to the $61.6 bln surplus in October. Exports fell 6.8% y/y in November after the 6.9% drop in October. Imports contracted at a 8.7% y/y clip in November following the 18.8% pull-back in October. The report confirms the ongoing challenges for China’s trade outlook. China’s equities are lower, with the Shanghai Composite down 1.5%. The Nikkei is down 1.0%, while the Hang Seng is off 1.7%, as Asia’s stock markets key off the declines in the US

Japan’s real GDP was revised to a 1.0% gain in Q3 (q/q, saar) from the previous 0.8% drop. An upward revision was expected, but to a very modest gain. Hence, Japan’s economy did not fall into recession after all, with contraction confined to the revised 0.5% drop in Q2 (was -0.7%). Capital spending was revised to a 0.6% gain in Q3 from the initial 1.3% drop. The improvement in Q3 growth, notably the gain in capital spending, trims the chance that the BoJ will implement further stimulus early next year. The yen is little changed, with USD-JPY holding in the 123.3 region.

US consumer credit rose $16.0 bln in Octoberafter surging $28.6 bln in September (revised from $28.9 bln), with the August increase nudged down to $14.6 bln from $16.0 bln. Non-revolving credit continued to lead the strength, rising $15.8 bln versus the $21.9 bln jump previously (revised from $22.2 bln). Revolving credit was up $0.2 bln versus September’s $6.7 bln gain.

 

Main Macro Events Today

• EU GDP: The final reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP is out today and should confirm growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.6% y/y, with the breakdown expected to show that growth remains driven by consumption and domestic demand.
• Canada Housing Permits: are released today and are seen dipping 1.0% in October after the 6.7% tumble in September and 3.6% pull-back in August.
• BoC Governor: The Bank Of Canada governor Poloz will be speaking today on “The Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policy. The most recent policy announcement remained cautiously optimistic regarding the expected recovery in growth and acceleration in underlying inflation through 2017.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

FX News Today

Yesterday was a historic trading day for EUR traders in the wake of the ECB’s and Mario Draghi’s surprise move that disappointed the EUR short sellers in the market, after the ECB cut the deposit rate by just 10 basis points when the market had priced in at least a 20 basis point cut. High EURUSD price action after the disappointing announcement likely blew up short sellers as the pair surged higher by 450+ pips on the day.

EURUSD short sellers will be further tested today as today’s U.S. jobs report could offer some more surprises. A stronger NFP number could flip some of EURUSD recent gains, however on the other side of the trade, if we see a big NFP drop off, we could quickly see a EURUSD pop the late October’s levels near 1. 1100.

The EUR gets a bit of further support today as the German manufacturing orders at the start of the session came in much higher than anticipated at 1.8% m/m and September data were revised sharply higher.

Fed Chair Yellen finished her JEC testimony on policy without adding anything new. She repeated several times that the economy is growing and the labor market is near full employment. Liftoff went on to say, also doesn’t mean the FOMC is embarking on a pre-determined course, and added, the trajectory will be gradual. So it looks as though it’s all systems go for a small hike.

Asian stock markets are down across the board, following on from heavy losses in the U.S. and especially the Eurozone, as Draghi’s package of easing measures fell short of expectations.

The weaker USD drove up oil prices though short covering ahead of today’s OPEC meeting has been viewed as the culprit. A lack of agreement on production cuts from the Vienna meeting, will see the global supply glut picture come back to center stage and further oil price losses may be expected.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German Manufacturing Orders: Surged 1.8% m/m, a much stronger rebound than expected and with the September number revised up sharply to -0.7% m/m from -1.7% m/m, the numbers tie in with the better than expected confidence readings this month. Still, this was the first improvement since June, and the three months trend rate still dropped to -2.9% from -2.7% in the three months to September. The German recovery may for once be driven by consumption, rather than exports and manufacturing, but still, these are weak numbers that suggest a slowdown in activity at the start of next year.

• German construction PMI: Jumped to 52.5 from 51.8 in the previous month. More signs that the construction sector is picking up as low interest rates fuel demand for property investment and the refugee crisis will mean additional demand for housing. Something then to counterbalance the weak manufacturing sector, which is facing a drop in demand.

• USD NFP: November nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200k, with a 190k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as lean claims readings should provide some tail wind. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could put a December rate hike on hold. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady from 5.0%. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.5 from September. Hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.1% which would leave a 2.2% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be up 0.1% for the month following a 0.3% increase last month.

• USD Trade Deficit: The October trade deficit is expected to hold steady from -$40.8 bln in September. Exports in October are expected to fall 1.6% while imports show a 1.3% decrease on the month. Forecast risk: downward, if October service trade captures some of the goods-trade weakness. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data would push back rate hike assumptions. The trade deficit has failed to narrow significantly in 2015 despite a sharp price-led drop in petroleum imports, thanks to weakening foreign demand and a strong dollar.

• CAD Unemployment: Employment is expected to fall 10.0k in November after the 44.4k surge in October. Forecast Risk: Canada’s job surge in October was driven by a 32.0k surge in public administration payrolls that was largely due to temporary work associated with the federal election. A pull-back seems in the cards as those temporary workers are let go with the conclusion of the election. But education payrolls could provide a boost, having declined 3.6k in October on top of the 51.3k plunge in September that was the largest on record. Hence, the risk is mixed given the divergent risks associated with public admin and education.

• CAD IVEY PMI: Canada’s Ivey PMI is expected to rise to 54.0 in November from 53.1 in October on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today.

The U.S. ADP employment data came in better than expected, we also saw an uptick in Q3 productivity and unit labor costs; the data gave some support for the USD on Wednesday. The U.S. Fed chair Yellen appeared to put in place the foundations for a December rate within the next two weeks hike during her speech yesterday. For the time being, the market will remain “data-dependent” with all eyes now on the jobs report due out tomorrow. Unless the jobs report is a complete disappointment, markets will continue to adjust for a rate hike.

European markets will focus on today’s ECB decision, analyst projections call for a cut in the deposit rate of at least 20 basis points, maybe even larger if there are sizeable exemptions and a widening of the pool of eligible assets under the QE program.

The EUR is under selling pressure against the USD ahead of the ECB’s policy decision; EURUSD short sellers may have been profiting-taking yesterday, however, the downtrend continues today after a short lived rebound attempt yesterday after the pair hit a new multi-month low.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Final EMU Services PMI: revised down to 54.2 from 54.6 reported previously but still up from 54.1 in October. The composite reading was also revised down to 54.2, but remained up from 53.9 in the previous month. So economic expansion still accelerated in November and all major Eurozone countries are reporting growth, although November readings were mixed, with the Spanish PMI coming in higher than expected at 56.7, up from 55.9 in the previous month. The Italian reading meanwhile was unchanged at 53.4, while the final French number was revised down to 51.0 from 51.3 and the German reading was confirmed at 55.6.

• EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision: a cut in the -0.2% deposit rate plus a tweak in the QE program is likely. The widening of pool of assets under QE would give Draghi more room to manoeuvre in the future and add weight to his promise to do everything needed to bring inflation back towards the 2% mark.

• GBP Services PMI: The U.K. has the Services PMI for November, which we expect to bounce back to 55.5 (median 55.0) from the 54.9 reading in October.

• USD Unemployment Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 269k (median 271k) in the week-ended November 28. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,244k for the week-ended November 21.

• USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The U.S. ISM-NMI is expected to fall to 57.5 from 59.1 in October. The July spike to 60.3 set a new post-recession high.

• USD Fed’s Yellen Testifies.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

The USD traded mostly softer in Monday trade losing some ground following the November ISM missed expectations, while the U.S. stock market rallied in response to the weakness in the ISM index. The November figure dropped to 48.6, below the 50 break-even for the first time since 2012, and is the lowest since 2009. The November U.S. ADP employment survey will be the key event today, while the main market focus will be the scheduled speech from Fed Chairwomen Janet Yellen. However, the Fed Chairwomen will not commit to any specific timing on any interest rate hike, especially ahead of Friday’s jobs report and the FOMC meeting.

Notable U.S. Fed speak from Chicago Fed voter Evans reiterated that he favors later liftoff than his peers and that a gradual pace of hikes is required given downside inflation risks. He thinks it may be appropriate for rates to be below 1% by the end of 2016. He is not optimistic on a quick pick up in inflation as he judges core inflation will be just under 2% by the end of 2018. This is probably the most likely scenario.

The European calendar has prelim Eurozone Nov HCIP, and PPI, UK construction PMI, the main focus will be on the preliminary Eurozone HICP reading for November. The German and Spanish inflation ticked higher, and if confirmed, a 0.3% y/y reading in the overall Eurozone number would still be higher than the 0.2% y/y reported for October. This would then confirm the uptrend that has been visible in the last couple of months. EU core inflation also has been trending higher.

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Australia’s Q3 GDP: grew 0.9%on a real basis (q/q, sa) , slightly better than expected after a revised 0.3% gain in Q2 (was +0.2%). But it was largely an exports story, as shipments abroad surged as projected, rebounding 4.6% in Q3 after port closures in Q2 held back shipments abroad. Exports fell 3.3% in Q2. Household spending grew 0.7% in Q3. Non-dwelling construction fell 5.3% while M&E investment dropped 4.6%, consistent with an ongoing drag from the resource sector. Governor Stevens said the result was “not a bad outcome.” He said ongoing moderate growth remains their projection for Australia’s economy.

• EUR Eurozone Nov Inflation: EU core inflation has been trending higher and the ECB’s preferred gauge for inflation expectations, the five year, five year break even rate has moved above 1.80%. November Eurozone HICP today (a rise to 0.3% y/y is expected after October’s 0.2%).

• USD The November ADP: private employment survey is expected to show a 190k increase in jobs.

• CAD Interest Rate Decision: rate seen unchanged at 0.50%

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.