Intraday volatility in oil at support after Saudi comments

Forex Analysis
Intraday volatility in oil at support after Saudi comments

Crude Oil, Weekly

San Francisco Fed president Williams: said over the weekend that there is a “strong case” for a December rate hike. This sparked a dollar rally and some commodity volatility this morning. Today the Washington Post said that Saudi Arabia’s government is willing to cooperate with other producers to maintain stable prices. Therefore it’s not surprising that Nymex crude has had a mixed trading day today. Crude oil had a gap opening higher (we’ve been talking about Crude being at support!) in start of the futures trading.  Then oil slid lower before bouncing higher again. Commodity currencies underperformed, with USDCAD whipsawing up and down with the oil market.

In the weekly picture crude oil has been forming a vast bullish wedge formation. This price action is taking place near multi-year low that took place in 2009. Current price action is taking place at lower Bollinger Bands and near a 37.75 support from August this year. Stochastics are oversold and the last week’s bar was a narrow range candle with open and closing prices near each other. Such candles signal that supply and demand are in a relative balance. Nearest resistance level is at 42.58 while the nearest support level is at 37.75.

Chart_15-11-23_16-57-37

Crude Oil, Daily

In the latest Live Analysis Webinar we focused on the fact that Crude oil was trading at a pivotal support (37.75 – 40.50) while the USDCAD has been trading near this year’s highs. This combination suggests that both markets are near potential turning points. Today’s opening gap to the upside together with OPEC’s comments supports the view while the bullish pin bar (a hammer) from Friday suggests the same. Stochastics, RSI and Money Flow Index are edging up from oversold levels. Today’s price advance was turned as the pivotal resistance at 42.58 invited sellers to push the price down yet again. Support area: is a pivotal candle support at 37.75 – 40.51 while resistance levels are at 42.58, 45.90 and 48.32.

Chart_15-11-23_16-58-03

Crude Oil, 240 min

The 42.65 proved to be too much for the oil bulls to handle and today’s rally was quickly rejected. The last 4h candle from Friday is bullish but today’s failure to challenge the resistance takes some of its edge away. Price is not trending lower anymore in this timeframe and there is some attempt to change direction from the support.

Conclusion

In the latest Live Analysis Webinar we identified the 37.75 to 40.50 area as potential support and 42.60 as a resistance. These S&R areas have proven to be highly valuable as Crude Oil has been bouncing between the levels. This is a good example of how fundamental information impacts the market and the technical levels as still very valid and valuable. The increased volatility with an opening gap suggest that market participants put two and two together and are looking for a turnaround in oil. However, the sideways move in the weekly chart is fairly near and could cause sideways action between it and the below support range. Saudi comments suggest oil market is near levels where the turnaround can actually take place.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Economic Week Ahead for 11.23.2015

Forex Analysis
The Economic Week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

  • United States: The US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday will see activity condensed into the first three days of the week. While the data calendar is highlighted with several important releases, including revised GDP, personal income, consumption, durable orders, housing stats, and consumer confidence, none are crucial enough to materially alter expectations for a Fed rate liftoff. October existing home sales (today) are expected to fall 1.8% to a 5.45 mln unit rate, unwinding some of the 4.7% rebound to 5.550 mln in September following the 5.0% drop to 5.300 mln in August. Q3 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to be revised higher to a 2.1% clip in the second release, from the disappointing 1.5% pace seen in the Advance report. However that is still considerably slower than Q2′s 3.9% rate. Global growth remains a major uncertainty, and especially in Asia. Consumer confidence for November (Tuesday) is seen rising to 98.5 after falling 5 points to 97.6 in October. Personal income and consumption figures for October (Wednesday) should help fine tune Q4 GDP forecast too. We’re forecasting gains of 0.4% for each and the strength from the employment report suggests upside risks. New home sales (Wednesday) are forecast bouncing 2.6% to a 480k pace in October after diving 11.5% in September to 468k. The housing sector remains choppy and generally disappointing. October durable goods orders (Wednesday) should edge up 0.5%, hardly correcting from the cumulative 4.2% decline from August and September, though weakness was mostly led by transportation.
  • Canada: Canada’s economic calendar is somewhat thin this week (Friday), with the industrial product price index (IPPI) the only top tier report. We expect October IPPI to fall 0.5% (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% decline in September as lower gasoline prices, a firm loonie and weaker commodity prices weigh on industrial prices. The establishment employment survey (Thursday) will provide earnings and employment figures for September. The results are fairly dated, with the timely labour force survey showing a 44.4k surge in October jobs and a dip in the unemployment rate to 7.0% from 7.1%. Nevertheless, the employment figures from the establishment survey are of interest, as is the earnings figure. We expect average weekly earnings to rise 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.7% drop in August. Corporate profits for Q3 (Thursday) are also due out from Statistics Canada. The Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson (Tuesday) conducts a presentation at the University of Regina Regina, SK. The appearance, which is part of the Bank’s regional outreach program, is the final scheduled event before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement on December 2. We expect no change to the current 0.50% policy rate or to the growth and inflation outlook presented in October.
  • Europe: Preliminary November PMI readings (today) kicked off the week and the French PMI’s disappointed with the manufacturing reading managed to carve out a slight gain – to 50.8 from 50.6, but the services reading dropped sharply to 51.3 from 52.7, which saw the composite falling to 51.3 from 52.6 in October. The German PMI’s came in better than expectations and above the previous month’s figures: services 55.6 vs. median of 54.3, manufacturing 52.6 vs. median of 56 and composite 54.9 vs. median of 54. The German Ifo Business Climate index (Tuesday) is seen little changed at expected 108.3 (med 108.1), versus 108.2 in October. France and Italy also release November confidence data and the week ends with the release of the European Commission’s ESI Economic Confidence reading on Friday, where we look for a marginal improvement to 106.0 (median same) from 105.9 in October. The preliminary consumer confidence reading already surprised on the upside, but again, in the current climate, even better than expected numbers are unlikely to change Draghi’s course and weaker readings will only add to the doves’ arguments. The second release of German Q3 GDP is expected to confirm the 0.3% q/q growth rate reported with the initial release, leaving the focus on the breakdown, which will almost certainly show that for once German growth is boosted by consumption and domestic demand rather than net exports. Indeed, across the Eurozone, consumers are propping up the economy and despite the ECB’s deflation warnings, there is no sign that purchases are being postponed in anticipation of price cuts, on the contrary.
  • United Kingdom: The latest CBI distributive sales survey (Tuesday), BBA mortgage approvals (Wednesday), and Gfk consumer confidence and the second estimate for Q3 GDP (both Friday). We forecast the CBI retail survey showing an improvement in the headline realized sales balance for November, to +24 (median +25) from October’s +19 reading. Strong rises in real average household incomes and record levels of employment have and should continue to underpin the sector. BBA mortgage approvals for October should recover some of the unexpected dip seen in September data, to 44.5. We expect a reading of 45.5, which would still be short of the cycle peak seen in August, at 46.7. As for the Gfk consumer confidence survey, we anticipate an unchanged reading of +2 (median same). The second estimate Q3 GDP report is widely expected to show +0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y growth, unchanged from the preliminary readings.
  • China: no data releases this week.
  • Australia: RBA Governor Stevens (Tuesday) speaks at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle speaks at the FX Week Europe conference in London (Wednesday). Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the Q3 private capital expenditures survey (Thursday), expected to reveal a repeat 4.0% drop (q/q, sa) after the 4.0% pull-back in Q2 as ongoing uncertainty over Australia’s growth prospects maintains caution on the part of firms.
  • Japan: Japanese markets are closed Monday for Labor Thanksgiving Day. The release schedule gets underway Wednesday with October services PPI, expected to dip to a 0.5% y/y pace versus the 0.6% outcome previously. Revised September leading and coincident indices (Wednesday) are seen unchanged from preliminary readings of -2.1% m/m and -0.3% m/m, respectively. CPI data (Friday) should show the October national headline inching up to a 0.1% y/y pace versus unchanged. The core reading is expected to fall to -0.2% y/y from the prior -0.1% outcome. November Tokyo headline is forecast unchanged at 0.1% y/y, with core seen steady at -0.2% y/y. October unemployment (Friday) will likely reveal an unchanged 3.4% rate, while the job offers/seekers ratio is seen steady at 1.24.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 11.20.2015

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

ECB Heading for 20 bp Deposit Rate Cut: The ECB is heading for additional stimulus measures in December, with governing council members clearly pushing for further easing as Draghi and Praet once again raise the specter of deflation fears even as core inflation is moving higher. But while officials are not tiring of highlighting that the ECB cannot be the only player supporting growth, it seems pretty clear that central bankers are having their eye more on equity markets than the traditional long term inflation indicators the Bundesbank focused on. Boosting growth and keeping markets happy has become the centre focus and despite the fact that a move further into negative territory will put additional pressure on insurers and banks, a deposit rate cut in December, and likely a sizeable one is coming into focus.

Atlanta Fed centrist Lockhart said he’s comfortable raising rates assuming there’s no marked downturn in the economic outlook, but the path after lift-off may be “slow and halting” as the Fed attempts to find a potentially lower equilibrium. He said the criterion for lift-off has been met on the labor front, while inflation is expected to pick up amid little evidence of disinflation. He’s encouraged that the economy is growing at a moderate pace despite weak energy and export sectors. The rate complex has largely already bought into a December hike and is discounting this via curve flattening, though Lockhart is seen as the fourth most credible at the Fed, according to the WSJ survey, just behind Yellen, Fischer and Dudley

Fed funds futures continue to point to a 25 bp hike in December with close to 70% probability in the wake of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and along with recent Fedspeak and data. At this point it might take something extra ordinary to again delay a move, though we won’t put it past the markets to try via a tightening tantrum heading into the December 15-16 policy meeting. The futures market is also pricing in a shallow trajectory of hikes over the first half of 2016, with the implied March contract trading at 0.37% and July at 0.56%. The Fed has indicated it won’t follow the predictable 25 bp hikes seen during Greenspan’s tenure, but we don’t look for any outsized rate boosts in the early goings. Note that hawks take over the voting rotation in 2016 with Bullard, George, and Mester coming on board.

US leading indicators bounced 0.6% to 124.1 in October after falling 0.1% to 123.3 (August was revised slightly lower to 123.4 from 123.5). The index has risen in 6 of the 10 months to date and is above 124.0 for the first time since April 2006. Nine of the 10 components made positive contributions, led by the yield curve (0.22%), stocks (0.16%) and building permits (0.12%).

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • ECB Draghi’s Speech: marketsexpect clues on the next month’s ECB meeting and to get Draghi’s view on how recent terrorist attack in Paris will impact on confidence in Europe.
  • Canada Retail Sales Preview: We expect retail sales, due today, to fall 0.1% m/m in September (median +0.2%) after the 0.5% gain in August. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen falling 0.4% m/m (median same at -0.4%) versus the flat reading in August, as a 7.9% plunge in gasoline prices drives both measures lower.
  • Canada CPI Preview: We expect CPI to slow to a 0.9% y/y pace in October following the 1.0% y/y growth rate in September as lower gasoline prices again exert a drag. Core CPI is projected to grow at 2.1% y/y in October, matching the 2.1% in September.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDCAD reacting lower from resistance

Forex Analysis
USDCAD reacting lower from resistance

USDCAD, Weekly

In the beginning of this year I suggested that the USDCAD pair will move beyond the high of 1.2793. This resistance penetration took place in July and since then the pair has created a higher low almost at the same level. Now USDCAD has been once more facing an area that is a previous high. In the weekly picture price has bumped into resistance at higher Bollinger Bands while the ascending regression channel low wasn’t too far either. The Stochastics are almost in the overbought area and therefore support the idea that the bullish momentum is, at least temporarily, fading.

Chart_15-11-19_12-02-46

USDCAD, Daily

The pair has created a wedge formation below the weekly high while yesterday’s candle was a bearish pin bar (a shooting star) and was quickly followed by a sell off. This move brought price below 1.3300 level that supported price over the last two days. At the time of writing price is getting near a pivotal support at 1.3223, a level that coincides with an upward sloping trendline. The next support is at 1.3194 while the resistance area is between 1.3300 and 1.3374.

As Canadian economy is strongly oil dependent the price of crude oil and the USDCAD have an inverse relationship. Crude oil is at a support area (37.50 – 40.00) created by a pivotal candle from August. If downside in crude oil is limited then the upside in USDCAD in near term should be limited as well.

Chart_15-11-19_12-02-53

USDCAD, 240 min

There is a pretty clearly defined wedge in the 4h chart as well. A projection based on the width of the formation (dotted arrow) points to the proximity of 61.8% Fibonacci retracemen but there is a significant support at 1.3220 which could turn the price higher before it can hit this projection. Price is currently trading at a support area created by 38.2% Fibonacci level and a pivot candle from November 12th. The 4h resistance area is between 1.3323 and 1.3370.

Conclusion

The proximity of the upper weekly Bollinger Bands and previous high at 1.3457 together with a shooting star candle in the daily timeframe suggest there’s weakness ahead. The fact that crude oil is near previous lows (a pivotal low at 37.50 – 40.00) supports the view. Therefore it makes sense to look for shorting opportunities should the price rally higher (to 1.3300 – 1.3374 range) from the current support. Short term traders might also consider engaging the long side but considering the bearish technical factors in the weekly and daily timeframes the upside might be limited. Therefore price advances might run into considerable resistance between 1.3300 and 1.3370. Due to rising trendline and a pivotal low coinciding near 1.3220, 1.3220 – 1.3240 could work as a short target should the price first rally into the resistance and reversed lower. Traders have different price objectives but whether they are looking for a quick intraday gain or a swing trade they should look for buy signals at support and sell signals at resistance areas as defined in this analysis report.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Analysis for 11.19.2015

Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 11.19.2015

Today’s Currency Movers

The USD is lower across the board against other G7 currencies and emerging-world currencies.

The AUD outperformed against the USD, although off from intra-day highs. AUDUSD recorded a 15-day high at 0.7176.

The EURUSD fell to new 7-month lows of 1.0617 in Wednesday trade, as the FOMC minutes didn’t really clear up whether or not December rate lift off will occur.

 

NOV 19 EURUSD V1

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD lifted to a three day high of 1.0717 in the wake of the U.S. Fed FOMC minutes; the EUR though is still a bearish market, and with the inevitable interest differential widening becoming more apparent, the USD will continue to grind higher against the EUR over time until we see a shift in the ECB policy. Draghi’s previous comments on lower core inflation will further add pressure for the EUR. Technically, the EURUSD may correct higher towards 1.0820′s ahead of a further drive lower for a retest of the April lows at 1.0520.

NOV 19 EURUSD SRL

 

NOV 19 AUDUSD V1

 

AUDUSD, Daily

A rebound from lows in commodities has supported the AUD. Technically, the recent bullish momentum on the AUDUSD pair should continue since stochastic analysis indicates continued upward momentum and current price has broken to the upside of the downward slopping trend-line. A solid close above today’s trend-line break should enable buyers to make further commitments to drive price towards the 0.7260-0.7290 areas before the continuation of its longer term downtrend for a 0.7062 target.

NOV AUDUSD SRL

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 11.19.2015

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

BoJ’s Kuroda: Concern about balance sheet won’t stop any more easing; with BoJ’s Kuroda adding that he doesn’t see problems in the financial system from continuing easing. At the same time Kuroda said there is the possibility that the current low rate of CPI may affect wage growth, and that the BoJ will be watching the 2016 wage talks with great interest. Speaking at the briefing following the policy meeting where the BoJ left rates unchanged, he said there is no need to change the view that price expectations are rising over the longer term. We expect the BoJ to add further stimulus in the future.

Germany’s Schaeuble would prefer higher interest rates. Not that that the comments from Germany’s Finance Minister will impress Draghi much, who seems to be heading for another cut in the deposit rate in December, even though he admitted that the low interest rate environment is very challenging for banks and insurers.

FOMC minutes: most participants thought liftoff conditions could be met by December, and hence wanted the statement to show a December hike could be appropriate. Indeed, that was the message read by the markets. The minutes also showed most officials also thought global risks had diminished. Officials also mostly agreed that the process of removing accommodation would be gradual. This is all consistent with subsequent Fedspeak since the October 27, 28 meeting. But there was nothing definitive in the minutes that the FOMC will pull the trigger in 5 weeks’ time.

US housing starts undershot estimates with an 11.0% October drop after small downward Q3 revisions, leaving a weaker than expected report despite a 4.1% rise in permits. Starts were hit by a big drop for multi-family units with a concentration of weakness in the South and West.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • ECM Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are revealed today and are studied carefully for further information and details on the expected easing by the central bank.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims for the week of November 14th are out today and should reveal a headline improvement to 267k (median 270k) after holding at 276k for the prior two weeks. The holiday season is typically a volatile time for claims and we expect November to set a slightly higher average of 266k for the month from 263k in October and 269k in September.
  • US Leading Indicators: The October Leading Indicators report is expected to reveal a 0.5% (median 0.4%) headline following a -0.2% headline in September and two months of flat readings before that. Most component data has been stronger in October and the improvements in the stock market should help lift the headline. For the whole story read our preview.
  • US Philadelphia Fed Index: The November Philly Fed should reveal a headline improvement to 0.0 (median -0.5) from -4.5 in October and -6.0 in September. The already released Empire State Index for the month improved to -10.7 from -11.4 in October. We expect producer sentiment to remain steady in November with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures holding at 50 from September.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURGBP TRADING AT SUPPORT

Forex Analysis
EURGBP trading at support

EURGBP, Daily

The pair is trading near the lower end of the a sideways move that started in March this year. This has been caused by a historical support from a multi-year sideways move between 2004 – 2007. Price has now reached a pivotal support created in the beginning of August this year. The range of this support area is 0.6937 and 0.6998 and has potential to turn the market higher.

As per Stochastics Oscillator EURGBP is oversold in weekly and daily time frames while in the 4h time frame it is just coming off the oversold area. The nearest daily resistance level (a low from November 5th) is currently at 0.7039, a level that coincides with the 30 period moving average while the upper end of the regression channel is not far either. We look for reversal signals at or inside the support range. In the case of successful long entry occurring the 0.7039 resistance works as a target one and 0.7108 as a target 2.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 11.18.2015

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

ECB’s Mersch: No indication yet of economic pessimism after Paris. The Executive Board member said in a speech in Frankfurt that “we should shy away from drawing premature conclusions about whether the terror attacks will have any economic impact”, adding that “we have no indication of any economic pessimism as a result of the Paris attacks, let alone weaker hard data”. He warned that “doom-and-gloom talk is not warranted at this stage”. Clearly, with the attacks less than a week away, we don’t have any data yet that fully reflects the impact of the events and Mersch is right, it is too early to draw conclusions, even if markets seemed to stabilise relatively quickly. The fact that Bund futures dropped on the comments highlights though just how sensitive markets are to central bank remarks ahead of the December council meeting.

Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Chinese equities under pressure for a second day, after President Xi Jinping said the economy is facing “considerable downward pressure”. Japanese markets struggled to make headway as the Yen advanced. GBP is under pressure and the EUR is little changed against USD. Oil prices meanwhile are slightly higher.

US NAHB home builder sentiment index fell 3 points to 62 in November, from an upwardly revised 65 in October (was 64). It’s the first decline since May, but it’s from a post-recession high, with the 65 level the best since 2005. The current single family sales index dipped to 67 from 70. The future sales index dropped to 70 from 75. But the index of prospective buyers traffic rose to 48 from 47. Homebuilders continue to cite low inventories as problematic, while the stronger labor market and expanding economy are beneficial.

US industrial production slid 0.2% in October. Capacity fell to 77.5%. Those missed expectations. The 0.2% September decline in production was not revised, though August was nudged up to 0.1% from -0.1% previously. September capacity utilization was revised to 77.7% from 77.5%. Manufacturing improved last month, rising 0.4% after declines in June, August, and September. Motor vehicle/parts production picked up, rising 0.7%. Excluding vehicles/parts, manufacturing was up 0.4%. Machinery production increased 0.3%. Computer, electronics production was up 0.1%. Utilities slumped 2.5%, however, with Mining down 1.5%.

The 0.2% October U.S. CPI headline and core price gains both beat estimates, with little in the way of rounding errors from respective gains of 0.200% and 0.202%. We saw the expected small 0.3% energy price rise with a 0.2% food price gain, but medical care prices surged 0.8% alongside a firm 0.4% tobacco price rise.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • US Housing Starts: October housing starts are out today and should reveal a 2.2% decline to a 1,180k (median 1,160k) headline from 1,206k in September.
  • US Building Permits: We expect permits to rise to 1,150k from 1,105k and completitions to edge up to 1,030k from 1,028k in September.
  • FOMC Minutes:  markets focus on the Fed minutes to find out clues on whether the Fed is still likely to raise rates in December and what might be the rate hike path in 2016.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

Free Forex Analysis for 11.17.2015

Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 11.17.2015

Today’s Currency Movers

The AUD trades largely higher against other major pairs, after the RBA left its cash rate steady at 2.0%, meeting expectations. The RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes also maintained the shift to less-negative language about the Australian dollar (first seen in August) remarking that the currency was “adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices” versus the previous guidance that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary”, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.

The EURUSD trades at a multi month low of 1.0643, as the USD makes fresh advances, with some safe-haven flows into the USD seen against the EUR in particular, following the terror attacks in Paris. The USD also trades higher versus NZD, the CHF and the CAD, as the Fed has indicated in recent weeks that it’s inclined to begin liftoff next month.

The USDJPY is holding onto recent gains , with the focus now on the BoJ, whose Thursdays Policy meeting outcome will be more uncertain following the GDP data report yesterday, putting Japan back into a technically recession.

The USDCAD is stronger following much weaker Canadian manufacturing data, weak energy prices are also against the CAD, as WTI crude flirted with the $40/bbl mark, and commodities generally weakened on the back of a broadly firmer dollar.

 

NOV 17 EURUSD V2

EURUSD, Daily

The contrasting policy stances of the ECB and Fed should maintain the EURUSD pair downward bias. The recent recovery attempts were short-lived, reversing from near the 1.0810’s raises the fears of a further decline toward the 1.0600 (round number) before a retest of the April lows at 1.0520.

NOV 17 EURUSD SRLs

NOV 17 GBPJPY V1

GBPJPY, Daily (updated)

The GBPJPY has been trending higher and looks to continue the choppy recovery from the 180.60′s lows in the direction of 188 and 189.60-189.90′s further out. The current trending price move is also supported by the fact that the BoE has been hinting at a potential rate hike for some time, while the BoJ left policy unchanged, but the door remains open for QE, especially if growth falters.

NOV 17 GBPJPY SRls

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD IN A SELL THE RALLIES MODE

Forex Analysis
GBPUSD in a sell the rallies mode

Two days ago GBPUSD formed a narrow body candle at 1.5246 resistance. This bearish candle was followed by a down day and became a pivotal candle as a result. Today price has dipped below Friday’s pivotal candle low suggesting GBPUSD is in a sell the rallies mode in short term.  This view is confirmed by the price moving below a rising trend line. Price is now trading at lower 4h Bollinger Bands and could therefore react higher from here. If this corrective move takes place we should look for short trade signals between 1.5190 and 1.5230 with a view of looking to cover the shorts near November 6th low. Targets 1: 1.5130 and target 2: 1.5040.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.