S&P 500 formed a Doji at support

Forex Analysis
S&P 500 formed a Doji at support

S&P 500, Daily

Over the past few years US stock market has been rising at the back of the FED quantitative easing programs and low interest rates. Cheap money made it possible for the US companies to buy back their shares and therefore drive up the EPS (Earnings Per Share) metric, which again encouraged new money flows into the stock market. Now that that both the QE and cheap money are history the stock market has been losing its bullishness. The latest sign of this was a lower high that was put in place in November last year. This happened roughly 12 months after I forecasted that the S&P 500 index will start moving sideways.

S&P 500 index e-mini futures (ES) have over the past few days moved down and near a support area of 1861-1890. Yesterday prices stabilized and created a Doji candle after which there has been a reaction higher today. Stochastics (7,3,3), RSI (7) and MFI (7) are all oversold in the daily timeframe and the Stochastic oscillator is about to give a buy signal. This obviously depends on the price closing at the current levels or above. The nearest significant resistance level is at 1982 level that supported price action in December.

ES_240

S&P 500, 240 min

Today ES has tried to challenge the upper and of the downward sloping price channel that has held price action for the last four days. The current level happens to also be a daily low from three days ago and has resisted price moves higher yesterday. The level is also a 23.6% Fibonacci level. Today price has been able to create a higher low which suggests that there is some optimism among the bulls about breaking higher. A projection made based on the width of the bearish price channel suggests that in the case of a breakout market could move to the 1982 resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

ES_60

S&P 500, 60 min

A well placed hammer candle right at the lower Bollinger Bands encouraged traders to push ES outside the descending triangle. This breakout led the index future up to the resistance at 1928, but at the time of writing market is showing signs of weakness at the resistance. Oscillators are suggesting that the price is overbought and it is indeed trading above the upper Bollinger Bands and at resistance. Also a trendline drawn from the reaction highs on 7th and 8th January is at the same general area.

Conclusion

Market is trading at support and has shown signs of turning higher. If it can clear the 1928 resistance, the first signs of psychology chang (form bearish to bullish) we’ve seen since yesterday should turn into a more decisive move higher towards the next Fibonacci retracement level (38.2%) at 1959. Based on the chart analysis this market has the line of least resistance on the upside (at least for the short term) and should break above the current resistance at 1928 rather than make new lows. In the longer term however, the lower high that was put in place in November suggests that investors aren’t interested in taking the stock market above the last year’s high.  This view is supported by the Russell 2000 index being considerably weaker than the S&P 500. Russell is an index that consists of less liquid and therefore more risky stocks. If investors don’t see it appropriate to buy more risky but higher rewarding stocks then it signals that markets are risk averse and not likely move the markets significantly higher.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURGBP Analysis for 01.12.2016

Forex Analysis
EURGBP, Update

EURGBP, Monthly

The combination of positive Euro unemployment data and a downward revision in UK Q3 GDP growth has been supporting the EURGBP price in recent days.

Looking for medium term direction, the monthly chart indicates that the EURGBP may be set to advance further since it now trades above the multi-year downward trend line.

My medium term conclusion is for price targets at 0.7700 (October 2008 lows), and 0.7860 as an extended price target.

Jan 11 EURGBP SRL

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 01.12.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

Oil prices are pushing 12-year lows, trading below $31 bbl at the time of writing, as concerns about the global economy push traders into risk-off mode.

Commodity related currencies are under-performing the USD, with the AUD, NZD, and CAD all under pressure.

The U.S. Dow Jones stock markets closed higher on Monday, suggesting that the recent stock market sell off is starting to stabilize.

The EUR attempted to rally back over 1.0900, however failed to keep gains and fell back into the mid 1.08’s with the EURUSD lacking any meaningful direction without any market moving European economic data.

The economic calendar for today does not have any heavy data release on tap, apart from the GBP Industrial Production and the USD November JOLTS job opening survey.

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. November Industrial Production: Analyst expected a rise of 0.1% m/m, actual missed , and came in lower at -0.4%.

• USD Fed’s Stanley Fischer to Speak: No commentary

• EUR ECB speak from Praet and Lautenschlaeger: On January 6, 2016 Praet said the following “the ECB stands ready to take all measures that are necessary to bring inflation to 2%. If you print enough money you will always get inflation. Always”. “But if oil and commodities prices tumble, it is more difficult to allow inflation to rise. If a whole series of such factors occur, you can’t do anything other than somewhat postpone the data on which you seek to reach the higher rate of inflation”. “The emergence of bubbles is a justified concern”.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

NZDUSD TRENDING LOWER BUT NEAR A SUPPORT

Forex Analysis
NZDUSD trending lower but near a support

NSDUSD, 240 min

At the time of writing NZDUSD is in a downtrend as per 4h chart. The nearest important resistance level is at 0.6587 and coincides roughly with 23.6% Fibonacci level at 0.6595. In addition, the upper end of a bearish trend channel is currently at the same price levels. This could provide us with a quick short trading opportunity and as per usual we look for price action confirmation before entering the trades. Should the pair move beyond this resistance, the next potential reversal level is at 0.6637 which coincides with the 30 period SMA and is not far away from 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.6650.

We should take into account the fact that market has been moving lower for quite some time and is trading fairly close to a pivotal support area at 0.6433-0.6490. Also, price is trading inside a daily bottoming formation from November last year. Therefore we are near a potential turn around area and we should take this into account in setting the targets. Price could enter into another sideways phase where we should look to trade accordingly and not expect the trend to continue for ever. My targets for a potential short trade are: 0.6550 (Target 1) and 0.6505 (Target 2).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

CADJPY Analysis for 01.11.2016

Forex Analysis
CADJPY Update

CADJPY, Daily

Last week I wrote how CADJPY had been falling as there weren’t bidders for the crude oil as problems with the Chinese stock market caused the traditional safe havens, such as Japanese Yen and Gold market to rally.  I said that the move is overdone on the downside was probably overdone and we should prepare to short at higher levels. The pair rallied to my 83.93 resistance and provided short trading opportunities for those who had been to my webinars and knew what to look for. My Target 1 at 82.46 was hit earlier today after which market created a bullish pin bar at the level. This suggests that the same target level was chosen by the institutional players as well.

CADJPY has now been falling for five consecutive days. With the market trading at support after such a continuous fall it wouldn’t be a surprise if it took a breather and moved sideways before extending its move to the downside towards my Target 2 at 81.38. This is supported by the 60 min chart in which price has reached a breakout target that was based on a triangle formation. Price should be moving sideways between the 82.46 support and the above triangle formation today.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD 01.11.2016

Forex Analysis
The Economic Week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: December retail sales (Friday) will be the week’s key data. A very modest 0.1% clip is forecast, with an ex auto gain of 0.3%, versus November 0.2%, 0.3% respective increases. Industrial production is also due and is seen slipping 0.2% in December after a 0.6% November drop, while capacity utilization slumps to 76.7% from 77.0% previously. The latter was the lowest since January 2014. The January Empire State manufacturing index and preliminary consumer sentiment index are also on tap, and will be some of the freshest indicators on the economy. The Empire State index should be little changed at -4.0 versus December’s -4.6. That would be the 6th straight month in negative (contractionary) territory. Consumer sentiment is forecast edging up to 92.8 from the prior 92.6, but the meltdown in stocks to start the year suggest there’s risk of a measurable decline. December PPI will round out the day and readings of unchanged for the headline and +0.1% for the core are forecast following November’s gains of 0.3% for both the headline and core rates. Other data this week includes the November JOLTS report (Tuesday), the Treasury budget for December (Wednesday), and trade prices (Thursday). The job openings report should reflect the ongoing firmness in the labor market. The Treasury is seen announcing a $4 bln budget deficit for December, compared to a $1.9 bln surplus last year. Import prices are expected to tumble 1.4% in December after the 0.4% November dip as weak oil prices remain a big drag. Export prices should drop 0.5% after the prior 0.6% decline.  And, it’s Q4 earnings season again and damp profit reports or negative outlooks could keep equities on the back foot. Alcoa kicks off today after the market close.

Canada: Canada’s calendar is front loaded this week, with the Bank of Canada’s Q4 Business Outlook Survey and December housing starts due today. The Outlook Survey is expected to show a modest improvement in sentiment, with the future sales growth measure projected to rise 4.0 points to 20.0 in Q4 after bouncing 8.0 points to 16.0 in Q3. Look for an ongoing divergence between firms that are directly or indirectly tied to the recourse sector and those firms that are not. Housing starts are projected to slow to a 200.0k unit rate in December from the 211.9k clip in November. Additional housing figures are out later in the week: The December Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday), the November new housing price index (Thursday) and December existing homes (Friday) are all expected to reveal ongoing regional divergence. Events are lacking from the Bank of Canada until the announcement and Monetary Policy Report on January 20. We expect no change in rates alongside a modest reduction in the growth outlook that leaves the expected gradual recovery in place over 2016 and 2017.

Europe: This week’s data releases won’t change the ECB outlook much. There are a bunch of final inflation numbers from Italy, Spain and first releases from France, Ireland and Portugal, but with overall Eurozone numbers already released these are unlikely to attract too much attention. The same holds for Eurozone trade data and even Eurozone industrial production, which are too backward looking to change the outlook. Germany will release the first estimate of full year 2015 GDP data on Thursday, which we see at 1.7%, up slightly from the 1.6% in 2014. Events include a German 10-year Bund sale on Wednesday and Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings, with Brexit talks and the refugee crisis still high on the political agenda in Europe.

United Kingdom: The UK data agenda this week is relatively quiet.  Industrial production figures (Tuesday) has us expecting a 0.1% m/m rise in November.  The December BRC retail sales survey (also Tuesday) should be robust. The calendar is highlighted this week by the monthly BoE MPC meeting (Thursday).  We expect the vote to remain unchanged from last month, with 8-1 in favour of leaving the repo rate at its historic low of 0.5%.

China: China’s calendar this week is light. December trade report is due Wednesday, and is expected to reveal a narrowed surplus of $50 bln, as compared to November’s $54.1 bln.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the employment report (Thursday), which is expected to reveal a 30k pull back in December after the 71.4k surge in November that strained the credibility of the report. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.0% in December from 5.8% in November. Housing investment (Friday) is seen falling 1.0% m/m in November after the 0.5% dip in October. ANZ job ads (today) are projected to slip 0.5% in December after the 1.3% bounce in November. The RBA remains on its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar.

Japan: In Japan, the November current account surplus (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to JPY 1.00 tln from the previous 1,458.4 tln. December bank loans (Tuesday) are expected up 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, while December consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely ticked down to 42.5 from 42.6. November machine orders (Thursday) are forecast to fall 9.0% m/m after a 10.7% gain in October. Finally, December PPI (Thursday) is seen unchanged at -3.6% y/y.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Strong Dec Non-Farm Payrolls: 292K jobs

Forex Analysis
Strong Dec Non-Farm Payrolls: 292K jobs

EURUSD, Daily

US nonfarm payrolls surged 292k in December following the 252k November gain (revised up from 211k) and October’s 307k (revised from 298k). The net revision was 50k. The unemployment rate was steady at 5.0% for a 3rd straight month, versus the 5.1% in September. The labor force climbed 466k, while household employment jumped 485k. Private payrolls increased 275k with a 45k gain in the goods producing sector, a 45k gain in construction, and an 8k rise in manufacturing. The service sector added 230k, with business services leading the strength, rising 73k. The Government added 17k. Average hourly earnings were unchanged following November’s 0.2% gain. The workweek was flat at 34.5. This is a solid report that underscores the strength in the labor market.

EURUSD reacted lower as the better than expected labour numbers were released. The pair found support from Wednesday’s high and is at the time of writing trading above the 1.0860 level that supported price during the hours before the NFP publication. Market is trending lower in the daily picture which suggests that rallies such as this should be shorted at resistance levels, providing price action at resistance supports such intentions. The 4h timeframe suggests that should the price rally much higher from current levels market gets close to upper end of the down sloping channel and the upper Bollinger Bands. Important support and resistance levels are at 1.0758 and 1.0880. I expect the market to reverse near 1.0880 resistance and head towards 1.0758 support.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD trading at major support

Forex Analysis
GBPUSD trading at major support

GBPUSD, Monthly

GBPUSD has been falling for several months as markets have been adjusting to changing interest rates landscape that has lately been favouring the USD over the pound. Markets have also been worried about the approaching referendum that could lead to Britain exiting the Eurozone. Polls have been suggesting that opinion is more evenly divided than previously thought, though the UK government is still negotiating with EU partners for better terms.

After hitting a 50 month SMA in June 2015 the pair has now fallen to levels that attracted buyers in April 2015. These levels have been turn around areas also in 2010 and indeed in 2009 when market created an important bottom over a three to four month period. In monthly timeframe Stochastics (7) is oversold while RSI (7) indicates is right at the threshold of the oversold level. The nearest resistance level at 1.511 almost coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.5188. The next monthly support is at 1.4230.

Chart_16-01-08_12-24-29

GBPUSD, 240

The pair rallied some 200 pips yesterday and created a daily bullish pin bar candle in the process. This supports the view that GBPUSD is trading near a major support level. The rally was stopped at an intraday resistance area between 1.4636 and 1.4661. These levels coincided with the down sloping regression line. Stochastics (7) is getting overbought and market has reacted lower forming a bearish pin bar in the four hour chart. The 30 period simple moving average is not far from the 1.4661 resistance while the upper Bollinger Bands are currently near 1.47 together with the 50 period moving average.

Chart_16-01-08_12-24-21

GBPUSD, 60

The hourly chart reveals how GBPUSD has rallied above the bearish trendline that this week limited its rallies until yesterday’s rally penetrated it. Price is now trading above the 30 period SMA but is still below the resistance area at 1.4636-1.4661. The nearest important short term support area is at 1.4532-1.4574 which coincides with the down sloping trendline in the 60 min chart and the lower Bollinger Bands in the 4h chart. The next significant resistance is at 1.4807.

Conclusion

Market is trading at major support area and is therefore likely to be near to a stage when it starts consolidating before turning higher again. From a short term trader’s point of view such price action can provide opportunities in both directions. Critical levels in short term are 1.4530-1.4566 support and 1.4636-1.4661 resistance. If the pair can create a higher low at support and then push through the resistance there is room to move to 1.4807 while the next support below 1.4530 is at 1.44. Support area visible in 60 min chart (1.4532-1.4574) is now interesting after yesterday’s rally from the monthly support.  Short trades make sense (if sell signals appear) at above mentioned resistance area with the Target 1 at the supporting price bracket and Target 2 at 1.4467 while risk on the long side can be justified should price action provide us with relevant signals inside the same support area.  This would negate the need for Target 2 in the short side. In case a long trade gets triggered Target 1 is at 1.4636 and Target 2 at 1.4695. US Non-Farm Payrolls report is out in a couple of hours and should the actual number deviate strongly from the expectations markets could move beyond the nearest technical levels. We wait for the employment numbers and market reaction to them before considering opening new positions.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Analysis for 01.08.2016

Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 01.08.2016

Today’s Currency Movers Report

The start of trading for 2016 was all about the flight of money flowing out of global stock markets and into “safe haven positions”. As equity investors from Beijing to New York dumped stocks, causing the worst start of a New Year ever in recorded history, the Japanese Yen (JPY) took the spotlight as the safe bet with the JPY, the only major currency to report broad-based gains across all of the major currencies over the last five trading sessions.

On the other side, the biggest loser across the board over the last 5 trading sessions was the AUD. The Aussie has been spooked by China’s slowdown, the recent devaluation of the yuan which will negatively affect Australian exports and falling commodity prices are all factors that give reason for traders to move out of the AUD.

 

Jan 8 EURAUD V1

EURAUD, Daily

Australian Trade Balance came in lower than expected as the commodities downturn continues to take hold on the AUD. Meanwhile, short term strength in the EUR from the Euro area manufacturing PMI which recorded the third consecutive monthly rise has boasted the EUR.

Technically, the EURAUD looks set to extend a recovery from the December lows (1.4350), since price appears to be creating lower lows (B1 – B2) and higher highs (T1- T2?), the fact that price has broken to the upside of the valid downward sloping trend line, MA analysis is mixed, however, prices are above both the long and short term averages and the Stochastic analysis remains bullish.

I therefore support long positions for a short term price target near the 1.5810 level.

Jan AUDUSD SRL

Jan 8 USDJPY V1

USDJPY, Daily

The USDJPY is now broken under the longer-term (Monthly) September 2012 – December 2015 uptrend-line. Safe haven flights of capital are supporting the JPY in at least the short term. As the trend remains held to the downside for an eventually retest of the December 2014 lows near the 115.55 area, traders should be on alert for a potential short-lived move higher before new short positions are opened.

My strategy for the USDJPY is to open new short positions upon signs of buying interest below the 119.70 areas for a mid-term price target near the 115.60’s.

Jab 8 USDJPY SRLs

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 01.08.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

German trade surplus narrowed slightly in November. Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 19.7 bln in November, down from EUR 20.5 bln in the previous month. German industrial production fell -0.3% m/m in November, an unexpected contraction as strong orders inflow in October and November boosted hopes for a rebound in activity.

Lane: ECB can do more if data shows its necessary. New Irish central bank head Lane, who replaced Hononan, said that even after the adjustment of QE in December “its important to say that no door has been closed. If the data flow over the next number of months is that more needs to be done, more can me done. In other words, it’s now becoming a more normalised instrument that every number of months the analysis can be updated and that if more needs to be done, more can be done”.

Chinese markets opened up in a better mood after authorities suspended circuit breakers overnight prior to their reopening, with the Shanghai Comp opening 2.2% higher and the CSI300 some 2.4% firmer, while the onshore yuan initially rallied to 6.5640 compared to 6.5945 lows on Thursday before quickly backpeddling to the 6.5850 area. It may take a while for the PBoC adviser story to sink in, which called for a 10-15% devaluation of the yuan in a single move along with capital controls. Japan’s N-225 is up some 0.7% to start, but its still early in the session and the U.S. payrolls report looms later.

Fed dove Evans believes a very gradual tightening path is prudent and will help ensure the inflation goal is met, in his speech on Managing the Dots on Monetary Policy. Indeed, his forecast is for a slower pace of hikes than the dot-plot than envisions 4 quarter point moves this year. And, he favors additional accommodation should the economy be hit by an unexpected shock. Slower global growth is offsetting the more positive momentum in the U.S. to some extent, and suggests the funds rate may be headed for a “lower resting point” than has historically been the case. He reiterated there’s no predetermined path of tightening, and the “road ahead may need to be modified” based on incoming data. The 5% unemployment rate is near full employment and indicates the Fed has made great progress, but there’s still some slack in the system, leaving the Fed short of its employment mandate. Evans is not a voter this year.

Bank of Canada Outlook: Poloz maintained a constructive view on Canada’s ongoing adjustment to the terms of trade shock that was wrought by the plunge in oil and commodity prices. On oil, he did not seem concerned over the most recent bout of weakness, saying “adjustments have to happen” and there is nothing policy makers can do about the price of oil.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls: December employment is out on Friday and should reveal a 200k (median 201k) headline that follows a 211k addition in November. We expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 5.0% (median 5.0%) for a third month. The release faces some upside risk from firm ADP readings, a slight bounce in producer sentiment and continued restraint from initial claims
  • US Wholesale Trade: November wholesale trade data is released Friday and should show sales unchanged (median unchanged) on the month with inventories down 0.1%. This follows respective October figures which revealed a flat rate for sales and a 0.1% decline for inventories. The already released November factory goods data had sales up 0.2%, inventories down 0.3% and orders down 0.2%. Data in line with our forecast would leave the November wholesale I/S ratio steady at 1.31 for a fourth month.
  • Canada Employment: We expect employment, to rise 10.0k in December after the 35.7k plunge in November. Canada’s job market has been hit by onetime factors in recent months, which makes for a more challenging than usual forecasting task for December. And education payrolls rose just 6.0k in November after the 3.6k dip in October and 51.3k plunge in September that was the largest on record. Perhaps the make-up for September’s loss will happen in December? An as-expected gain would be welcome news given the recent run of disappointing data, consistent with the BoC ongoing patience on growth.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.