FX News Today

Canada’s consumer confidence improved to 58.3 in week ended November 13, according to the Nanos Economic Mood Index. That follows a 58.3 figure in the prior week and leaves the strongest level since the 58.4 seen in the week ending October 17. The index slumped to 53.6 in the final week of February and was a run of 52 and 53 readings from late July through mid-September. But confidence has returned (although the index remains below the peak 60.6 seen in mid-July of 2014), which could be expressed through retail sales gains in Q4 as consumer spend gas price savings and take advantage of low interest rates.

Canada existing home sale rose 1.8% m/m in October (seasonally adjusted) following the 2.1% drop in September. Not surprisingly, sales strength was led by growth in Vancouver and Toronto. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins expressed confidence in the bank’s call for a soft landing in the housing sector, and this report does not present a new challenge to her view.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren leaned towards a quicker hike given risks like faster growth in commercial real-estate in a lengthy FT.com article over the weekend. Basically it is the old unintended consequences theory that might be forcing a stretch for yield or returns in a zero rate environment, as employment and inflation goals come within reach. He also said that the recent October jobs report was “pretty unequivocally positive,” though he was less certain about nascent signs of wage growth. Rosengren did hint that the policy divergence with other countries was boosting the dollar, though offset somewhat by domestic demand. If that divergence grew too far, however, it could imply a more gradual U.S. policy path than otherwise. Note, Rosengren is number 8 in terms of policy signaling, according to a WSJ survey.

Bundesbank cautiously optimistic on growth. The German central bank said in its latest monthly report that the labour market is in a “very good condition”, and that “the positive labour-market and wage outlook, as well as the strong immigration, create the conditions for spirited consumption in the economy to continue and for overall growth in the medium term to exceed potential”.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK October CPI (Core Consumer Price Index) is released today. No change is anticipated and the figure is expected to come in at 1%.
• German ZEW investor sentiment was expected to improve slightly to 5.0 (median 6.1) from 1.9 but mainly on the back of hopes of further stimulus measures, so the number itself would not remove pressure on Draghi to act again. There also is the risk of a downside surprise, as late responses will have been impacted by the Paris attacks, so uncertainty is higher than usual, as the number will depend very much on when the answers came in.
• US CPI: October CPI is out today and should show a 0.1% (median 0.2%) headline increase with an accompanying 0.1% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. This comes on the heels of a 0.2% headline decline in September and a 0.2% increase for the core in that month. Data in line with this forecast would leave the headline flat y/y and the core figure at 1.8% y/y.
• US Industrial Production: October industrial production data should reveal an unchanged (median 0.1%) rate for the headline following the 0.2% decline in September and a 0.1% drop in August. The capacity utilization rate is expected to remain steady at 77.5% (median 77.5%) for a second month.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

German Q3 GDP slowed to 0.3% q/q, from 0.4% q/q in Q2, in line with expectations. The working day adjusted annual rate improved to 1.7% y/y from 1.6% y/y. There is no full breakdown with the preliminary numbers, but the statistics office said in its press release that growth was mainly driven by private and public consumption. Investment seems to have contracted slightly and there was a negative contribution from net exports, as import growth outstripped export growth. So for once a consumption driven economy, not the usual export led growth pattern. This clearly is also due to the ECB’s ultra-accommodative policy, that is also causing problems for banks and insurers, but also households forced to increase private pension provisions.

Bullard and Lacker look for higher rates. Lacker: the case for raising rates is “strong”said the Fed hawk, who dissented at the last two meetings against the consensus to keep policy on hole. He acknowledged to reporters that his “dots” are higher than the FOMC median, something we had already surmised given his very public hawkish stance. On the policy path, he added that the “gradual” pace is just an expectation and warned the FOMC could change its mind. He worries that the Fed could get into a rut of 25 bp hikes per meeting. He, of course, rotates out of voting status next year, but will be replaced by three other kestrels, including Bullard, Mester, and George. Bullard: a shallower tightening path is likelycompared to 1990s or 2000s, said the St. Louis Fed president, dependent on the economy — steeper if it booms. G7 nations as a whole, however, are still a ways away from normalizing and near zero rates appear to be the norm there for at least a couple of years. The Fed will rely on the usual metrics for each hike, including whether the labor market becomes very tight. He sees the debate over the Fed role as healthy given the large one it played in response to the financial crisis. This is about par for moderate Bullard, again focusing more on the longer-term.

92% of economists surveyed expect a December Fed hike according to the latest WSJ survey published, barring a cataclysmic event of some sort. 5% see the Fed remaining on hold until March and 3% see ZIRP for longer than that. Back in October 64% of those surveyed saw a December hike. It seems Janet and company have done their guidance job well, backed up by the October payrolls report, though this leaves their credibility at stake on December 16 to follow through this time.

Main Macro Events Today

• US PPI: October PPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.2%) headline for the month with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%) This follows respective September figures of -0.5% for the headline and -0.3% for the core. Declining oil prices have weighed on the various inflation measures over the year but they appear to have leveled off in recent months and even posted a small gain in October which should allow for headline increases.
• US Retail Sales: October retail sales will be released today and the headline is expected to be up 0.4% (median 0.2%) with the ex-autos rate up 0.5% (median 0.4%). There is upside risk to the release from the firm vehicle sales data, improvements in consumer confidence and the bounce in construction hours worked that we have seen in October. This should be enough to offset the potential downside from slightly slower chain store sales.
• US Business Inventories: The September business inventory data is out on Friday and should reveal an unchanged (median 0.1%) figure for inventories with shipments flat as well. This comes on the heels of respective August figures which had inventories unchanged and shipments down 0.6%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.37 from August, prior to that the ratio had held at 1.36 since March.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

German final Oct HICP confirmed at 0.2% y/y, with the national CPI rate at 0.3% y/y, versus -0.2% y/y and 0.0% y/y respectively in September. The jump in headline rates largely reflects less negative annual rates for energy related prices. A marked rise and while still below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, a sign that inflation is moving back to the ECB’s target.

The AUDUSD outperformed on a solid employment report out of Australia, and while the credibility of the data has been called into question by at least some economists, few doubt that the validity of the underlying trend. AUD-USD is up 1.2% having rising above 0.7150. The employment report showed a rise of 58.6k, nearly triple the median forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% from 6.2%. The details of the report were encouraging, including labour participation, aggregate hours worked and back revisions.

Reuters: ECB examines purchases of muni, regional bonds. Reuters reported that municipal and regional bond buying could be rolled out in coming months, with the plan likely to come in March next year. ECB officials are reportedly also examining the purchase of bonds from municipalities and German states ahead of the rate setting meeting in December 3. According to the report an unidentified person told Reuters that while muni bonds were risky, they had the backing of central governments. The step would widen the pool of eligible assets at a time when yields on both French and German 2-year yields have fallen so far into negative territory that they are no longer eligible for purchases under the QE program. It would also give the ECB more room to manoeuvre on a possible extension of the QE program.

US MBA mortgage market index sank 1.3% in data released earlier, in addition to an increase of 0.1% on the purchase index and a 2.2% decline on the refinancing index for the week ended November 6. There was a an 11 basis point increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 4.12% in the wake of stronger jobs data, which lifted the potential for December rate lift-off. For more on the relatively firm housing sector, see our existing home sales, housing starts and new home sales reports.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims are expected to be 269k (median 270k) in the week-ended November 7. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,170k for the week-ended October 31. Forecast risk: downward, as volatility concerns could give businesses pause. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could delay rate hike expectations.

• Canadian New Home Price Index is out today and projected to expand 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.3% gain in August.

• ECB President Draghi speech. Market participants will follow Draghi’s speech with interest as they wait for further clarification on the planned easing operations.

• Fed Chair Yellen speaks. This is potentially yet another opportunity to hear what the Fed has been discussing on the interest rate policy. Markets expect that the December rate hike is a given and therefore the focus has turned to what Yellen might be communicating regarding the rate hike path in the coming year.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

China CPI slipped to a 1.3% y/y pace in October, from 1.6% y/y in September, modestly slower than forecast. The inflation index is down from 2.0% y/y in August. Excluding food and energy, CPI fell to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.6% in September and 1.7% in June, July, and August. For the month, October CPI fell 0.3% from 0.1% in September. October PPI was unchanged at a -5.9% y/y rate for a third straight month, and has eroded from -4.6% y/y in the spring. The index has been in negative territory for an unprecedented 44 consecutive months. The weakening trend in inflationary pressures, along with the declines in trade, have increased hope and speculation of additional stimulus. Chinese shares are lower after 5 days of gains.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren: it could be appropriate to hike in December if the economy continues its gradual improvement, while there’s been real improvement in the economy since the October meeting. In particular, the October jobs report was very good news including the reduction of labor slack and it’s reasonable to ask whether current stimulus is still necessary as the worst of the Fed’s September global outlook and market concerns haven’t materialized. He sees a gradual rate hike cycle as needed to “probe” labor markets, while assessing the Fed’s new tools and analyzing their effects. He believes that domestic demand will help offset dollar strength and sees above-potential growth ahead. Coming from one of the more dovish Fed members, this suggests few impediments remain for a December hike.

OECD trimmed its global growth outlook again in its twice annual review amid concerns over weakness in emerging markets (especially citing recessions in Brazil and Russia, and the slowdown in China). The organization now pegs world growth at 2.9% for 215 and 3.3% for 2016, versus prior forecasts of 3.0% and 3.6%, respectively, from September. However, the U.S. expansion remains on track with a 2.4% GDP growth rate for this year, accelerating to 2.5% in 2016, and dipping back to 2.4% in 2017. The Euro-area is expected to grow at a 1.8% clip next year and 1.9% in the following year, with Japan seen at 1.0% in 2016, but slowing to half that in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Wholesale Trade: September wholesale trade data is out today and should reveal a -0.3% (median -0.2%) headline for the month with the accompanying inventory component remaining unchanged. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady from 1.31 in August. Other measuers of inventories were softer in September and we saw factory goods inventories down 0.4% with shipments down 0.4% as well and orders down 1.0% for the month.

• US Import and Export Prices: October trade price data  is expected to show import prices down 0.1% (median -0.1%) with export prices down 0.2%. Apart from gains during May and June around the rebound in oil prices both the import and export price indexes have posted negative readings for the past year. Despite some slight rebound in oil prices in October prices still remained at depressed levels which will likely continue to weigh on the release.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.