FX News Today

EUR traders are positioning ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, with markets preparing for the Eurozone central bank to cut its deposit rate and hoping for an expansion of the QE program.

Today’s European calendar, on tap U.K. manufacturing PMI, German unemployment. The final EMU manufacturing PMI, likely to be confirmed at 52.8 (median same). German jobless numbers are seen down -7K (median -6K), which will leave the adjusted jobless rate unchanged at 6.4%. The calendar also has the U.K. Manufacturing PMI, which is seen falling back to 53.5 (med 53.6) from 55.5 in October. Switzerland releases Q3 GDP numbers as well as October retail sales.

The U.S. calendar heats up today, to be released out of the U.S. we have, Manufacturing ISM, Construction Spending, and Auto Sales, although traders are mostly waiting for Friday’s NFP report, as well as Fed Chair Yellen’s comments tomorrow. Fed-speak resumes today with remarks from dove Evans of the Chicago Fed, who will be addressing current economic conditions and monetary policy from 12:45 ET. Fed Governor Brainard will next tackle the “Lower Neutral Rate and its Implications for Monetary Policy” from Stanford in California after the close from 20 ET, while VC Fisher speaks at a Financial Stability conference.

RBA left cash rate unchanged at 2.00%; RBI also held policy steady as was widely expected. The board was constructive regarding the economic outlook, saying that “prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate.” Of course, they maintained scope to ease if needed, saying the “outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy.” As for the currency, they noted the AUD is “adjusting to significant declines in key commodity prices.”

Asian stock markets are mostly higher, despite disappointing data out of China, with markets in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia rebounding after strong capex data out of Japan and as bargain hunters move in. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also higher.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Eurozone manufacturing PMI: The overall EMU number is likely to be confirmed at 52.8 (median same). German labor market data will also attract some attention and analysts are looking for a drop in the seasonally adjusted jobless number of -7K (median -6K), which will leave the adjusted jobless rate unchanged at 6.4%.

• GBP U.K. Manufacturing PMI: which is seen falling back to 53.5 (med 53.6) from 55.5 in October.

• CAD Canada Gross Domestic Product: Real GDP is expected to grow 2.3% in Q3 (q/q,) following the 0.5% drop in Q2 and 0.8% pull-back in Q1. The expected gain would only slightly undershoot the Bank of Canada’s 2.5% estimate (median is for 2.3%) and perhaps more importantly leave an economy that is moving in the direction anticipated by the bank.

• U.S. Manufacturing ISM: November ISM should reveal a slight headline increase to 50.5 (median 50.4) from 50.1 in October and 50.2 in September.

• U.S. Construction Spending: October construction spending should reveal a 0.5% (median 0.5%) headline which follows a 0.6% headline in September and 0.7% in August.

• U.S. Auto Sales: November auto sales data will be released over the course of the day on Tuesday and should reveal an 18.1 mln pace for the month, this would make the third month that sales have held at 18.1 mln.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

The U.S. calendar is busy today ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow. Weekly jobless claims are a day early due to Thursday’s holiday, and are expected to rise to 285k from 271k.

European calendar quiet today, with Italian orders, retail sales, U.K. BBA lending.

Crude Oil has made two week highs of $43.40, as geopolitics are seen as the market mover following Turkey’s downing of a Russian military jet. Also providing support to price is the slightly softer dollar, also a rationale for traders to close short positions ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving break.

U.S. reports yesterday revealed an expected Q3 GDP growth boost to 2.1% from 1.5%. Personal income revisions for both Q2 and Q3 saw a sharp raise in the savings rate, as will be reinforced in today’s monthly income report. The higher savings rate could be seen as evidence of greater household caution, though it also leaves room for a stronger consumption path into 2016.

The Fed discount rate minutes showed 9 District banks voted to hike the rate at its October 26 meeting. That’s one more than at the prior meeting on September 15, as the Boston Fed joined the ranks of those voting for a 25 bp increase in the primary credit rate to 1.0%. The number of District banks voting for an increase has been on the rise all year; in January 9 banks had voted to maintain a steady rate. Directors generally noted positive economic conditions, and those arguing for a tightening saw improving conditions in the labor market which should help boost inflation. This adds to the speculation that the FOMC will vote to lift rates at its December 15th, 16th policy meeting.

The U.K. CBI survey showed a much lower than expected reported sales reading for November, which dropped to 7 from 19 in the previous month. At the same time BoE members sounded dovish, with Chief Economist Haldane saying in his annual report that the balance of risks to growth and inflation outlooks is skewed materially to the downside, more so than reflected in the November inflation report. BoE’s Carney warned that the low interest rate environment is likely to remain for some time to come and BoE’s Forbes said the bank probably won’t have to implement further easing, and that the next rate move is probably more likely to be a hike.

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Durable Goods Orders (Oct): October durable orders are seen rebounding 0.5% after the 1.2% September drop. Analyst forecast October personal income to increase 0.4%, from September’s weak 0.1% rise, while PCE is seen up 0.4% as well, from the 0.1% increase previously.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly jobless claims are a day early due to Thursday’s holiday, and are expected to rise to 285k from 271k.

• USD New Home Sales: October new home sales are expected to bounce 2.6% to 480k from the prior 11.5% drop to 468k. The September FHFA home price index is forecast at 225.4 from 224.9.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

EURUSD is slightly firmer today, after printing a new seven month low of 1.0592 yesterday. The market will now focus on the up- coming data releases out of Europe, while the U.S. has economic data to be released later today.

Commodity prices largely stabilized, with oil prices picked up in overnight trade. The oil market has been choppy after Saudi Arabia said it was ready to work with other OPEC members to stabilize the market.

German Q3 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q, as expected. The breakdown, which was released for the first time, was pretty much as expected with strong domestic demand helping to compensate for a negative contribution from net exports. Consumption is holding up the economy, but also boosting import growth, although the sharp rise in government consumption of 1.3% q/q was a bit of a surprise. The data confirms pronounced investment weakness over the summer, with machinery and equipment investment down -0.8% q/q and construction investment down -0.3% q/q. Not really a picture of balanced growth, even if for once this recovery is not export led, but consumption led.

German Nov Ifo, the stronger than expected PMI readings for Germany yesterday coupled with the improvement in the ZEW and the rise in Eurozone consumer confidence all back our forecasts for a slight rise in the German Ifo Business Climate index to 108.3 (med 108.1), versus 108.2 in October. The improved numbers, as well as vocal resistance against additional QE measures make it unlikely that the central bank will expand its asset purchase program next week, but in our view won’t prevent another cut in the deposit rate, especially as even some of the hawks seem to agree that the zero lower bound has moved since the ECB first introduced negative rates.

Main Macro Events Today

• The German Ifo index: Beat expectations and jumped to 109 from 108.2 in the previous month. Expectations had been for a broadly steady number, but with both current conditions and future expectations indices moving up, the overall index rose to the highest level since June last year. The diffusion index, shows optimists outnumber pessimists in all sectors, although most notably is the rebound in manufacturing confidence, which belies the weak orders data, concerns about slowing growth in emerging markets and the emission scandal. Bund futures actually moved higher going into the data and took a while to come off highs after the release, but the strong round of confidence data backs our view that a widening of the ECB’s asset purchase program at the current juncture is unlikely, although another cut in the deposit rate further into negative territory remains on the cards.

• USD GDP: Analyst expect that Q3 GDP to be revised up to 2.1% from 1.5% in the first report, following 3.9% growth in Q2. Forecast risk: downward, given the huge inventory boost that might be absorbed via price assumptions. Market risk: downward, as a weaker report could delay the Fed rate hike. Inventories are expected to be revised up by $28 bln. Net exports should be revised down by $2 bln. Construction spending should be revised down by $1 bln. Consumption spending should be revised down by $1 bln.

• USD Consumer Confidence: November Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 98.5 from 97.6. This compares to a low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: upward, given the increase in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike time-lines.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.